Inventories and Business Cycle Volatility An Analysis Based on ISAE Survey Data
Inventories and Business Cycle Volatility: An Analysis Based on ISAE Survey Data

The paper looks at an often debated issue - the decline observed in business cycle volatility - using qualitative data derived from Business Tendency Surveys. It concentrates on the manufacturing sector, providing evidence that volatility slowdown is attributable to a break in the Data Generating Pr...

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Bibliographic Details
Main Author: Malgarini, Marco (Author)
Format: Electronic Book Chapter
Language:English
Published: Paris OECD Publishing 2008
Subjects:
Economics
Online Access:DE-384
DE-473
DE-824
DE-29
DE-739
DE-355
DE-20
DE-1028
DE-1049
DE-521
DE-861
DE-898
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DE-19
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Summary:The paper looks at an often debated issue - the decline observed in business cycle volatility - using qualitative data derived from Business Tendency Surveys. It concentrates on the manufacturing sector, providing evidence that volatility slowdown is attributable to a break in the Data Generating Process (Cecchetti, Flores-Lagunes and Krause, 2006) rather than to a long trend decline (Blanchard and Simon, 2001). Moreover, it shows that lower variance of the ISAE Confidence Indicator is mostly explained by the behaviour of firms' assessments of demand and inventories. In particular, inventories volatility has decreased, while volatility of production has instead increased with respect to that of demand. Both of these results are consistent with the claim that better inventories management should have a specific role in shaping the production decisions of the firms (Wen, 2005)
Physical Description:1 Online-Ressource (23 Seiten)
DOI:10.1787/jbcma-v2007-art10-en

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