Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities: Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements?
This paper attempts to assess the impact of exchange rate movements on Russian import and nonfuel export performance, using an error correction model. The estimation of trade equations shows that long-run price elasticities for imports and non-fuel exports are close to 0.6 and 0.7 respectively, henc...
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| Main Author: | |
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| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2006
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| Series: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Volltext |
| Summary: | This paper attempts to assess the impact of exchange rate movements on Russian import and nonfuel export performance, using an error correction model. The estimation of trade equations shows that long-run price elasticities for imports and non-fuel exports are close to 0.6 and 0.7 respectively, hence relatively similar to those obtained for OECD countries. The Marshall-Lerner condition clearly holds. More precisely, we find that a 10% real appreciation (depreciation) of the currency leads on average to a non-fuel current account deterioration (improvement) of around 1% of GDP. Moreover, the short-term dynamics of the error correction model indicate that the response of the trade balance to exchange rate shocks is rapid, the adjustment being almost complete after one quarter. Finally, the evolution of import prices and non-fuel export prices of Russia, relatively to its competitors on domestic and third markets, suggests that the Russian economy lost already in 2004 the price-competitiveness advantage it had gained after the 1998 crisis |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/431350563511 |
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| spelling | Gianella, Christian Verfasser aut Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? Christian Gianella and Corinne Chanteloup = Évaluation des élasticités-prix du commerce extérieur hors hydrocarbures en Russie : L'économie russe réagit-elle "normalement" aux mouvements de taux de change ? / Christian Gianella et Corinne Chanteloup Évaluation des élasticités-prix du commerce extérieur hors hydrocarbures en Russie Paris OECD Publishing 2006 1 Online-Ressource (28 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers This paper attempts to assess the impact of exchange rate movements on Russian import and nonfuel export performance, using an error correction model. The estimation of trade equations shows that long-run price elasticities for imports and non-fuel exports are close to 0.6 and 0.7 respectively, hence relatively similar to those obtained for OECD countries. The Marshall-Lerner condition clearly holds. More precisely, we find that a 10% real appreciation (depreciation) of the currency leads on average to a non-fuel current account deterioration (improvement) of around 1% of GDP. Moreover, the short-term dynamics of the error correction model indicate that the response of the trade balance to exchange rate shocks is rapid, the adjustment being almost complete after one quarter. Finally, the evolution of import prices and non-fuel export prices of Russia, relatively to its competitors on domestic and third markets, suggests that the Russian economy lost already in 2004 the price-competitiveness advantage it had gained after the 1998 crisis Economics Russian Federation Chanteloup, Corinne ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/431350563511 Verlag kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Gianella, Christian Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? Economics Russian Federation |
| title | Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? |
| title_alt | Évaluation des élasticités-prix du commerce extérieur hors hydrocarbures en Russie |
| title_auth | Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? |
| title_exact_search | Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? |
| title_full | Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? Christian Gianella and Corinne Chanteloup = Évaluation des élasticités-prix du commerce extérieur hors hydrocarbures en Russie : L'économie russe réagit-elle "normalement" aux mouvements de taux de change ? / Christian Gianella et Corinne Chanteloup |
| title_fullStr | Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? Christian Gianella and Corinne Chanteloup = Évaluation des élasticités-prix du commerce extérieur hors hydrocarbures en Russie : L'économie russe réagit-elle "normalement" aux mouvements de taux de change ? / Christian Gianella et Corinne Chanteloup |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? Christian Gianella and Corinne Chanteloup = Évaluation des élasticités-prix du commerce extérieur hors hydrocarbures en Russie : L'économie russe réagit-elle "normalement" aux mouvements de taux de change ? / Christian Gianella et Corinne Chanteloup |
| title_short | Assessing Russia's Non-fuel Trade Elasticities |
| title_sort | assessing russia s non fuel trade elasticities does the russian economy react normally to exchange rate movements |
| title_sub | Does the Russian Economy React "Normally" to Exchange Rate Movements? |
| topic | Economics Russian Federation |
| topic_facet | Economics Russian Federation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/431350563511 |
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