Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions:
Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Other Authors: | |
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2012
|
| Series: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Volltext |
| Summary: | Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is developed, using quantile regressions to construct a probability distribution of future GDP, as opposed to mean point forecasts. This approach allows uncertainty to be assessed conditionally on the current state of the economy and is totally model based and judgement free. The quality of the computed distributions is tested against other approaches to measuring forecast uncertainty and a set of uncertainty indicators is constructed in order to help exploiting the most helpful information |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en |
Staff View
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000zc 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV047936069 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 220413s2012 xx o|||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (ZDB-13-SOC)061258261 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1312690541 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV047936069 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-384 |a DE-91 |a DE-473 |a DE-824 |a DE-29 |a DE-739 |a DE-355 |a DE-20 |a DE-1028 |a DE-1049 |a DE-188 |a DE-521 |a DE-861 |a DE-898 |a DE-92 |a DE-573 |a DE-19 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Laurent, Thomas |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions |c Thomas Laurent and Tomasz Koźluk = Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles / Thomas Laurent et Tomasz Koźluk |
| 246 | 1 | 3 | |a Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2012 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) |c 21 x 29.7cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a OECD Economics Department Working Papers | |
| 520 | |a Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is developed, using quantile regressions to construct a probability distribution of future GDP, as opposed to mean point forecasts. This approach allows uncertainty to be assessed conditionally on the current state of the economy and is totally model based and judgement free. The quality of the computed distributions is tested against other approaches to measuring forecast uncertainty and a set of uncertainty indicators is constructed in order to help exploiting the most helpful information | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Koźluk, Tomasz |4 ctb | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en |x Verlag |z kostenfrei |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 943 | 1 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033317562 | |
Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1818806084233592832 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | |
| adam_txt | |
| any_adam_object | |
| any_adam_object_boolean | |
| author | Laurent, Thomas |
| author2 | Koźluk, Tomasz |
| author2_role | ctb |
| author2_variant | t k tk |
| author_facet | Laurent, Thomas Koźluk, Tomasz |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Laurent, Thomas |
| author_variant | t l tl |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV047936069 |
| collection | ZDB-13-SOC |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-13-SOC)061258261 (OCoLC)1312690541 (DE-599)BVBBV047936069 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>00000nam a2200000zc 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV047936069</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">220413s2012 xx o|||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(ZDB-13-SOC)061258261</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1312690541</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV047936069</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1028</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1049</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-188</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-861</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-898</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-92</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-573</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Laurent, Thomas</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions</subfield><subfield code="c">Thomas Laurent and Tomasz Koźluk = Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles / Thomas Laurent et Tomasz Koźluk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="246" ind1="1" ind2="3"><subfield code="a">Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2012</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten)</subfield><subfield code="c">21 x 29.7cm</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">OECD Economics Department Working Papers</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is developed, using quantile regressions to construct a probability distribution of future GDP, as opposed to mean point forecasts. This approach allows uncertainty to be assessed conditionally on the current state of the economy and is totally model based and judgement free. The quality of the computed distributions is tested against other approaches to measuring forecast uncertainty and a set of uncertainty indicators is constructed in order to help exploiting the most helpful information</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="700" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Koźluk, Tomasz</subfield><subfield code="4">ctb</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="z">kostenfrei</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="943" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033317562</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV047936069 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T19:35:05Z |
| indexdate | 2024-12-18T19:04:09Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033317562 |
| oclc_num | 1312690541 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| owner_facet | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC |
| publishDate | 2012 |
| publishDateSearch | 2012 |
| publishDateSort | 2012 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | OECD Economics Department Working Papers |
| spelling | Laurent, Thomas Verfasser aut Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions Thomas Laurent and Tomasz Koźluk = Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles / Thomas Laurent et Tomasz Koźluk Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles Paris OECD Publishing 2012 1 Online-Ressource (33 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers Uncertainty is inherent to forecasting and assessing the uncertainty surrounding a point forecast is as important as the forecast itself. Following Cornec (2010), a method to assess the uncertainty around the indicator models used at OECD to forecast GDP growth of the six largest member countries is developed, using quantile regressions to construct a probability distribution of future GDP, as opposed to mean point forecasts. This approach allows uncertainty to be assessed conditionally on the current state of the economy and is totally model based and judgement free. The quality of the computed distributions is tested against other approaches to measuring forecast uncertainty and a set of uncertainty indicators is constructed in order to help exploiting the most helpful information Economics Koźluk, Tomasz ctb https://doi.org/10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en Verlag kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Laurent, Thomas Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions Economics |
| title | Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions |
| title_alt | Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles |
| title_auth | Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions |
| title_exact_search | Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions |
| title_full | Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions Thomas Laurent and Tomasz Koźluk = Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles / Thomas Laurent et Tomasz Koźluk |
| title_fullStr | Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions Thomas Laurent and Tomasz Koźluk = Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles / Thomas Laurent et Tomasz Koźluk |
| title_full_unstemmed | Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions Thomas Laurent and Tomasz Koźluk = Mesure de l'incertitude sur les prévisions du PIB à l'aide de régressions quantiles / Thomas Laurent et Tomasz Koźluk |
| title_short | Measuring GDP Forecast Uncertainty Using Quantile Regressions |
| title_sort | measuring gdp forecast uncertainty using quantile regressions |
| topic | Economics |
| topic_facet | Economics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5k95xd76jvvg-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT laurentthomas measuringgdpforecastuncertaintyusingquantileregressions AT kozluktomasz measuringgdpforecastuncertaintyusingquantileregressions AT laurentthomas mesuredelincertitudesurlesprevisionsdupibalaidederegressionsquantiles AT kozluktomasz mesuredelincertitudesurlesprevisionsdupibalaidederegressionsquantiles |