US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies:
Following Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments before Congress that the FOMC may 'take a step down in the pace of asset purchases if economic improvement appears to be sustained', US 10-year interest rates picked up sharply and gross capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) rever...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Paris
OECD Publishing
2014
|
| Schriftenreihe: | OECD Economics Department Working Papers
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | UBA01 UBG01 UEI01 UER01 UPA01 UBR01 UBW01 FFW01 FNU01 EUV01 FRO01 FHR01 FHN01 TUM01 FHI01 UBM01 Volltext |
| Zusammenfassung: | Following Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments before Congress that the FOMC may 'take a step down in the pace of asset purchases if economic improvement appears to be sustained', US 10-year interest rates picked up sharply and gross capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) reversed. These events raised concerns that further increases in US interest rates could trigger sharp changes of capital flows that would be followed by financial crises in EMEs. To assess this possibility, this paper studies the association between US long term interest rates and cycles of capital flows to EMEs. It finds that, indeed, cycles in capital flows to EMEs are linked to global conditions, including global risk aversion and long term interest rates in the United States. In particular, higher US long term interest rates are associated with lower levels of gross capital flows to EMEs, and to a higher probability of observing sharp reversals in those flows. Episodes of net capital inflows, on the other hand, are mostly associated with domestic macroeconomic conditions. In particular, economies with relatively low levels of gross outflows, with a high ratio of short-term debt to international reserves or with weak domestic fundamentals are more vulnerable to the risk of a classic sudden stop à la Calvo. This Working Paper relates to the OECD Economic Survey of the United States 2014 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-unitedstates. htm) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (34 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| DOI: | 10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |
Internformat
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nmm a2200000zc 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV047933884 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 00000000000000.0 | ||
| 007 | cr|uuu---uuuuu | ||
| 008 | 220413s2014 |||| o||u| ||||||eng d | ||
| 024 | 7 | |a 10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |2 doi | |
| 035 | |a (ZDB-13-SOC)061287733 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)1312699166 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV047933884 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e aacr | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 049 | |a DE-384 |a DE-91 |a DE-473 |a DE-824 |a DE-29 |a DE-739 |a DE-355 |a DE-20 |a DE-1028 |a DE-1049 |a DE-188 |a DE-521 |a DE-861 |a DE-898 |a DE-92 |a DE-573 |a DE-19 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Olaberría, Eduardo |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies |c Eduardo Olaberría = Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents / Eduardo Olaberría |
| 246 | 1 | 3 | |a Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents |
| 264 | 1 | |a Paris |b OECD Publishing |c 2014 | |
| 300 | |a 1 Online-Ressource (34 Seiten) |c 21 x 29.7cm | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b c |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b cr |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a OECD Economics Department Working Papers | |
| 520 | |a Following Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments before Congress that the FOMC may 'take a step down in the pace of asset purchases if economic improvement appears to be sustained', US 10-year interest rates picked up sharply and gross capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) reversed. These events raised concerns that further increases in US interest rates could trigger sharp changes of capital flows that would be followed by financial crises in EMEs. To assess this possibility, this paper studies the association between US long term interest rates and cycles of capital flows to EMEs. It finds that, indeed, cycles in capital flows to EMEs are linked to global conditions, including global risk aversion and long term interest rates in the United States. In particular, higher US long term interest rates are associated with lower levels of gross capital flows to EMEs, and to a higher probability of observing sharp reversals in those flows. Episodes of net capital inflows, on the other hand, are mostly associated with domestic macroeconomic conditions. In particular, economies with relatively low levels of gross outflows, with a high ratio of short-term debt to international reserves or with weak domestic fundamentals are more vulnerable to the risk of a classic sudden stop à la Calvo. This Working Paper relates to the OECD Economic Survey of the United States 2014 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-unitedstates. htm) | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Finance and Investment | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economics | |
| 650 | 4 | |a United States | |
| 856 | 4 | 0 | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |x Verlag |z URL des Erstveröffentlichers |3 Volltext |
| 912 | |a ZDB-13-SOC | ||
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033315378 | ||
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l UBA01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l UBG01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l UEI01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l UER01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l UPA01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l UBR01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l UBW01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l FFW01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l FNU01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l EUV01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l FRO01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l FHR01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l FHN01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l TUM01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l FHI01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
| 966 | e | |u https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |l UBM01 |p ZDB-13-SOC |x Verlag |3 Volltext | |
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804183574079864832 |
|---|---|
| adam_txt | |
| any_adam_object | |
| any_adam_object_boolean | |
| author | Olaberría, Eduardo |
| author_facet | Olaberría, Eduardo |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Olaberría, Eduardo |
| author_variant | e o eo |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV047933884 |
| collection | ZDB-13-SOC |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-13-SOC)061287733 (OCoLC)1312699166 (DE-599)BVBBV047933884 |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| discipline_str_mv | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |
| format | Electronic eBook |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>04401nmm a2200553zc 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV047933884</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">00000000000000.0</controlfield><controlfield tag="007">cr|uuu---uuuuu</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">220413s2014 |||| o||u| ||||||eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="024" ind1="7" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="2">doi</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(ZDB-13-SOC)061287733</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)1312699166</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV047933884</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">aacr</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-384</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-91</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-473</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-824</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-739</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-20</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1028</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-1049</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-188</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-521</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-861</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-898</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-92</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-573</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-19</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Olaberría, Eduardo</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies</subfield><subfield code="c">Eduardo Olaberría = Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents / Eduardo Olaberría</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="246" ind1="1" ind2="3"><subfield code="a">Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Paris</subfield><subfield code="b">OECD Publishing</subfield><subfield code="c">2014</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">1 Online-Ressource (34 Seiten)</subfield><subfield code="c">21 x 29.7cm</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">c</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">cr</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="490" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">OECD Economics Department Working Papers</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="520" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Following Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments before Congress that the FOMC may 'take a step down in the pace of asset purchases if economic improvement appears to be sustained', US 10-year interest rates picked up sharply and gross capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) reversed. These events raised concerns that further increases in US interest rates could trigger sharp changes of capital flows that would be followed by financial crises in EMEs. To assess this possibility, this paper studies the association between US long term interest rates and cycles of capital flows to EMEs. It finds that, indeed, cycles in capital flows to EMEs are linked to global conditions, including global risk aversion and long term interest rates in the United States. In particular, higher US long term interest rates are associated with lower levels of gross capital flows to EMEs, and to a higher probability of observing sharp reversals in those flows. Episodes of net capital inflows, on the other hand, are mostly associated with domestic macroeconomic conditions. In particular, economies with relatively low levels of gross outflows, with a high ratio of short-term debt to international reserves or with weak domestic fundamentals are more vulnerable to the risk of a classic sudden stop à la Calvo. This Working Paper relates to the OECD Economic Survey of the United States 2014 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-unitedstates. htm)</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Finance and Investment</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Economics</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">United States</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="0"><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="z">URL des Erstveröffentlichers</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="912" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033315378</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">UBA01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">UBG01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">UEI01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">UER01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">UPA01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">UBR01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">UBW01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">FFW01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">FNU01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">EUV01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">FRO01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">FHR01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">FHN01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">TUM01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">FHI01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="966" ind1="e" ind2=" "><subfield code="u">https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en</subfield><subfield code="l">UBM01</subfield><subfield code="p">ZDB-13-SOC</subfield><subfield code="x">Verlag</subfield><subfield code="3">Volltext</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV047933884 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T19:35:01Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T09:25:36Z |
| institution | BVB |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-033315378 |
| oclc_num | 1312699166 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| owner_facet | DE-384 DE-91 DE-BY-TUM DE-473 DE-BY-UBG DE-824 DE-29 DE-739 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-20 DE-1028 DE-1049 DE-188 DE-521 DE-861 DE-898 DE-BY-UBR DE-92 DE-573 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM |
| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (34 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm |
| psigel | ZDB-13-SOC |
| publishDate | 2014 |
| publishDateSearch | 2014 |
| publishDateSort | 2014 |
| publisher | OECD Publishing |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | OECD Economics Department Working Papers |
| spelling | Olaberría, Eduardo Verfasser aut US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies Eduardo Olaberría = Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents / Eduardo Olaberría Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents Paris OECD Publishing 2014 1 Online-Ressource (34 Seiten) 21 x 29.7cm txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier OECD Economics Department Working Papers Following Chairman Ben Bernanke's comments before Congress that the FOMC may 'take a step down in the pace of asset purchases if economic improvement appears to be sustained', US 10-year interest rates picked up sharply and gross capital flows to emerging market economies (EMEs) reversed. These events raised concerns that further increases in US interest rates could trigger sharp changes of capital flows that would be followed by financial crises in EMEs. To assess this possibility, this paper studies the association between US long term interest rates and cycles of capital flows to EMEs. It finds that, indeed, cycles in capital flows to EMEs are linked to global conditions, including global risk aversion and long term interest rates in the United States. In particular, higher US long term interest rates are associated with lower levels of gross capital flows to EMEs, and to a higher probability of observing sharp reversals in those flows. Episodes of net capital inflows, on the other hand, are mostly associated with domestic macroeconomic conditions. In particular, economies with relatively low levels of gross outflows, with a high ratio of short-term debt to international reserves or with weak domestic fundamentals are more vulnerable to the risk of a classic sudden stop à la Calvo. This Working Paper relates to the OECD Economic Survey of the United States 2014 (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-unitedstates. htm) Finance and Investment Economics United States https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Olaberría, Eduardo US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies Finance and Investment Economics United States |
| title | US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies |
| title_alt | Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents |
| title_auth | US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies |
| title_exact_search | US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies |
| title_exact_search_txtP | US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies |
| title_full | US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies Eduardo Olaberría = Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents / Eduardo Olaberría |
| title_fullStr | US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies Eduardo Olaberría = Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents / Eduardo Olaberría |
| title_full_unstemmed | US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies Eduardo Olaberría = Taux d'intérêt à long-terme des États-Unis et flux de capitaux vers les pays émergents / Eduardo Olaberría |
| title_short | US Long Term Interest Rates and Capital Flows to Emerging Economies |
| title_sort | us long term interest rates and capital flows to emerging economies |
| topic | Finance and Investment Economics United States |
| topic_facet | Finance and Investment Economics United States |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1787/5jz0wh67l733-en |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT olaberriaeduardo uslongterminterestratesandcapitalflowstoemergingeconomies AT olaberriaeduardo tauxdinteretalongtermedesetatsunisetfluxdecapitauxverslespaysemergents |