Bernoulli's fallacy: statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science
There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in...
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| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
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New York, NY
Columbia University Press
[2021]
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| Online-Zugang: | DE-1046 DE-858 DE-898 DE-859 DE-860 DE-19 DE-20 DE-706 DE-739 URL des Erstveröffentlichers |
| Zusammenfassung: | There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (XVIII, 347 Seiten) 12 b&w illustrations |
| ISBN: | 9780231553353 |
| DOI: | 10.7312/clay19994 |
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| spelling | Clayton, Aubrey Verfasser (DE-588)1239690908 aut Bernoulli's fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science Aubrey Clayton New York, NY Columbia University Press [2021] © 2021 1 Online-Ressource (XVIII, 347 Seiten) 12 b&w illustrations txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index There is a logical flaw in the statistical methods used across experimental science. This fault is not a minor academic quibble: it underlies a reproducibility crisis now threatening entire disciplines. In an increasingly statistics-reliant society, this same deeply rooted error shapes decisions in medicine, law, and public policy with profound consequences. The foundation of the problem is a misunderstanding of probability and its role in making inferences from observations.Aubrey Clayton traces the history of how statistics went astray, beginning with the groundbreaking work of the seventeenth-century mathematician Jacob Bernoulli and winding through gambling, astronomy, and genetics. Clayton recounts the feuds among rival schools of statistics, exploring the surprisingly human problems that gave rise to the discipline and the all-too-human shortcomings that derailed it. He highlights how influential nineteenth- and twentieth-century figures developed a statistical methodology they claimed was purely objective in order to silence critics of their political agendas, including eugenics.Clayton provides a clear account of the mathematics and logic of probability, conveying complex concepts accessibly for readers interested in the statistical methods that frame our understanding of the world. He contends that we need to take a Bayesian approach-that is, to incorporate prior knowledge when reasoning with incomplete information-in order to resolve the crisis. Ranging across math, philosophy, and culture, Bernoulli's Fallacy explains why something has gone wrong with how we use data-and how to fix it Bernoulli, Jakob 1655-1705 (DE-588)118509950 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte gnd rswk-swf MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy bisacsh Binomial distribution Law of large numbers Mathematical statistics Philosophy Probabilities Philosophy 19th century Probabilities Philosophy 20th century Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 gnd rswk-swf Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd rswk-swf Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd rswk-swf Bernoulli, Jakob 1655-1705 (DE-588)118509950 p Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 s Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 s Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 s Geschichte z DE-604 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 978-0-231-19994-0 (DE-604)BV047422421 https://doi.org/10.7312/clay19994 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Clayton, Aubrey Bernoulli's fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science Bernoulli, Jakob 1655-1705 (DE-588)118509950 gnd MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy bisacsh Binomial distribution Law of large numbers Mathematical statistics Philosophy Probabilities Philosophy 19th century Probabilities Philosophy 20th century Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)118509950 (DE-588)4045791-6 (DE-588)4064324-4 (DE-588)4056995-0 |
| title | Bernoulli's fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science |
| title_auth | Bernoulli's fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science |
| title_exact_search | Bernoulli's fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Bernoulli's fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science |
| title_full | Bernoulli's fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science Aubrey Clayton |
| title_fullStr | Bernoulli's fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science Aubrey Clayton |
| title_full_unstemmed | Bernoulli's fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science Aubrey Clayton |
| title_short | Bernoulli's fallacy |
| title_sort | bernoulli s fallacy statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science |
| title_sub | statistical illogic and the crisis of modern science |
| topic | Bernoulli, Jakob 1655-1705 (DE-588)118509950 gnd MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy bisacsh Binomial distribution Law of large numbers Mathematical statistics Philosophy Probabilities Philosophy 19th century Probabilities Philosophy 20th century Philosophie (DE-588)4045791-6 gnd Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bernoulli, Jakob 1655-1705 MATHEMATICS / History & Philosophy Binomial distribution Law of large numbers Mathematical statistics Philosophy Probabilities Philosophy 19th century Probabilities Philosophy 20th century Philosophie Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung Statistik |
| url | https://doi.org/10.7312/clay19994 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT claytonaubrey bernoullisfallacystatisticalillogicandthecrisisofmodernscience |