Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics: Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives
Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics,...
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| Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
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| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Princeton, NJ
Princeton University Press
[2021]
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-1043 DE-1046 DE-858 DE-859 DE-860 DE-473 DE-739 Volltext |
| Summary: | Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly |
| Item Description: | Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 25. Feb 2021) |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (344 pages) 8 tables 16 line illus |
| ISBN: | 9780691215075 |
| DOI: | 10.1515/9780691215075 |
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| 520 | |a Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly | ||
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| spelling | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives Philip E. Tetlock, Aaron Belkin Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press [2021] © 1997 1 online resource (344 pages) 8 tables 16 line illus txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Description based on online resource; title from PDF title page (publisher's Web site, viewed 25. Feb 2021) Political scientists often ask themselves what might have been if history had unfolded differently: if Stalin had been ousted as General Party Secretary or if the United States had not dropped the bomb on Japan. Although scholars sometimes scoff at applying hypothetical reasoning to world politics, the contributors to this volume--including James Fearon, Richard Lebow, Margaret Levi, Bruce Russett, and Barry Weingast--find such counterfactual conjectures not only useful, but necessary for drawing causal inferences from historical data. Given the importance of counterfactuals, it is perhaps surprising that we lack standards for evaluating them. To fill this gap, Philip Tetlock and Aaron Belkin propose a set of criteria for distinguishing plausible from implausible counterfactual conjectures across a wide range of applications. The contributors to this volume make use of these and other criteria to evaluate counterfactuals that emerge in diverse methodological contexts including comparative case studies, game theory, and statistical analysis. Taken together, these essays go a long way toward establishing a more nuanced and rigorous framework for assessing counterfactual arguments about world politics in particular and about the social sciences more broadly In English POLITICAL SCIENCE / History & Theory bisacsh Counterfactuals (Logic) History Philosophy Thought experiments World politics Belkin, Aaron ctb Belkin, Aaron edt Breslauer, George ctb Cederman, Lars ctb Dawes, Robyn ctb Deibert, Ronald ctb Fearon, James ctb Fischerkeller, Michael ctb Herrmann, Richard ctb Jervis, Robert 1940-2021 (DE-588)124830927 ctb Khong, Yuen ctb Kiser, Edgar ctb Lebow, Richard ctb Levi, Margaret ctb Mesquita, Bruce ctb Olson, James ctb Roese, Neal ctb Russett, Bruce ctb Stein, Janice ctb Tetlock, Philip E. edt Tetlock, Philip ctb Turner, MarkXXecontributorXX4ctbXX4https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Sonstige oth Weber, StevenXXecontributorXX4ctbXX4https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Sonstige oth Weingast, BarryXXecontributorXX4ctbXX4https://id.loc.gov/vocabulary/relators/ctb Sonstige oth https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691215075 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives POLITICAL SCIENCE / History & Theory bisacsh Counterfactuals (Logic) History Philosophy Thought experiments World politics |
| title | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives |
| title_auth | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives |
| title_exact_search | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives |
| title_full | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives Philip E. Tetlock, Aaron Belkin |
| title_fullStr | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives Philip E. Tetlock, Aaron Belkin |
| title_full_unstemmed | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives Philip E. Tetlock, Aaron Belkin |
| title_short | Counterfactual Thought Experiments in World Politics |
| title_sort | counterfactual thought experiments in world politics logical methodological and psychological perspectives |
| title_sub | Logical, Methodological, and Psychological Perspectives |
| topic | POLITICAL SCIENCE / History & Theory bisacsh Counterfactuals (Logic) History Philosophy Thought experiments World politics |
| topic_facet | POLITICAL SCIENCE / History & Theory Counterfactuals (Logic) History Philosophy Thought experiments World politics |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1515/9780691215075 |
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