Beyond frozen conflict: scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , |
|---|---|
| Weitere Verfasser: | |
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Brussels
CEPS
[2020]
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | IX, 228 Seiten Karten |
| ISBN: | 9781538144169 1538144166 9781538144176 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Beyond frozen conflict |b scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe |c Thomas de Waal, Nikolaus von Twickel ; edited by Michael Emerson |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text |
Contents Preface 1. 1 Introduction and Recommendations Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 1.1 Scenarios 1.2 Thinking in the long term 1.3 Policy recommendations Policy recommendations for the European Union: regarding Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine 2. 4 7 9 11 Scenarios for the future of eastern Europe's unresolved conflicts Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 2.1 Introduction - the Ukraine effect 2.2 Overarching conditions 2.2.1 Frozen diplomacy? 2.2.2 Russia 2.2.3 Stronger nations 2.2.4 European Union 2.2.5 Potential for incremental change 2.3 Scenarios 2.3.1 Donbas scenarios 2.3.2 Transdniestria scenarios 2.3.3 Abkhazia scenarios 2.3.4 South Ossetia scenarios 2.3.5 Nagorny Karabakh scenarios 2.4 Conclusions 3. 3 15 15 17 17 18 24 25 28 30 30 38 41 44 47 51 The State of the Donbas: A study of eastern Ukraine's separatist-held areas Nikolaus von Twickel 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Politics 3.2.1 The People's Republics' creation 3.2.2 Operation Girkin 3.2.3 Russification and de-russification 3.2.4 Agents rather than actors 55 56 58 58 60 62 64 VII
3.2.5 Parties and parliaments 3.2.6 Large bureaucracies with little control 3.2.7 Leadership changes - the Luhansk putsch 3.2.8 The killing of Alexander Zakharchenko 3.2.9 External Relations 3.2.10 Relations with Russia 3.2.11 Relations with the rest of Ukraine 3.3 Economy 3.3.1 Decline set in long before 2014 3.3.2 The trade blockade of 2017 3.3.3 The coal industry 3.3.4 Brain drain - demographic catastrophe? 3.3.5 Is Moscow subsidising a black hole? 3.3.6 Low wages and humble pensions 3.3.7 The rise of Vneshtorgservis and Serhiy Kurdienko 3.3.8 Return of the oligarchs? 3.3.9 The Luhansk 'People's Republic' - a different case? 3.4 Society 3.4.1 No ethnic conflict 3.4.2 Social cohesion 3.4.3 How popular are the 'People's Republics'? 3.4.4 The Media 3.4.5 Human rights: The MGBs and dissent 3.4.6 International isolation 3.5 Security 3.5.1 The armed formations' formation 3.5.2 Asymmetric mutual deterrence 3.5.3 The fighting along the Contact Line 3.5.4 Disengagement 3.5.5 International Presence: The OSCE Mission 3.5.6 Prospects for a peacekeeping mission 3.5.7 Limits for a peacekeeping mission 3.6 Outlook ѴІП 66 67 70 72 75 75 77 78 78 82 86 89 92 95 96 100 102 103 103 105 106 108 111 112 114 117 119 121 123 124 125 128 130
4. Transdniestria Today Thomas de Waal 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Background 4.3 Negotiations - one step forward one step back 4.4 Politics and society in Transdniestria 4.5 The economy 4.6 The grey zone 5. 7. 136 139 142 146 149 153 Abkhazia Today Thomas de Waal 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Deadlocked negotiations 5.3 Domestic politics and Russian influence 5.4 Economy and society 5.5 Inguri power division 5.6 Tbilisi's policy 5.7 The international outlook 6. 135 South Ossetia Today Thomas de Waal 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Background 6.3 Political life 6.4 Security and borderisation 6.5 Economy and society 6.6 Links with Georgia 159 160 163 164 169 176 178 181 187 188 190 193 196 198 201 The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in its Fourth Decade Thomas de Waal 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Faltering negotiations 7.3 Militarisation 7.4 International context 7.5 Challenges for 2020 7.6 Conclusions: What potential for incremental change? About the authors 205 206 210 214 217 223 225 228 IX |
| adam_txt |
Contents Preface 1. 1 Introduction and Recommendations Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 1.1 Scenarios 1.2 Thinking in the long term 1.3 Policy recommendations Policy recommendations for the European Union: regarding Georgia, Moldova and Ukraine 2. 4 7 9 11 Scenarios for the future of eastern Europe's unresolved conflicts Thomas de Waal and Nikolaus von Twickel 2.1 Introduction - the Ukraine effect 2.2 Overarching conditions 2.2.1 Frozen diplomacy? 2.2.2 Russia 2.2.3 Stronger nations 2.2.4 European Union 2.2.5 Potential for incremental change 2.3 Scenarios 2.3.1 Donbas scenarios 2.3.2 Transdniestria scenarios 2.3.3 Abkhazia scenarios 2.3.4 South Ossetia scenarios 2.3.5 Nagorny Karabakh scenarios 2.4 Conclusions 3. 3 15 15 17 17 18 24 25 28 30 30 38 41 44 47 51 The State of the Donbas: A study of eastern Ukraine's separatist-held areas Nikolaus von Twickel 3.1 Introduction 3.2 Politics 3.2.1 The People's Republics' creation 3.2.2 Operation Girkin 3.2.3 Russification and de-russification 3.2.4 Agents rather than actors 55 56 58 58 60 62 64 VII
3.2.5 Parties and parliaments 3.2.6 Large bureaucracies with little control 3.2.7 Leadership changes - the Luhansk putsch 3.2.8 The killing of Alexander Zakharchenko 3.2.9 External Relations 3.2.10 Relations with Russia 3.2.11 Relations with the rest of Ukraine 3.3 Economy 3.3.1 Decline set in long before 2014 3.3.2 The trade blockade of 2017 3.3.3 The coal industry 3.3.4 Brain drain - demographic catastrophe? 3.3.5 Is Moscow subsidising a black hole? 3.3.6 Low wages and humble pensions 3.3.7 The rise of Vneshtorgservis and Serhiy Kurdienko 3.3.8 Return of the oligarchs? 3.3.9 The Luhansk 'People's Republic' - a different case? 3.4 Society 3.4.1 No ethnic conflict 3.4.2 Social cohesion 3.4.3 How popular are the 'People's Republics'? 3.4.4 The Media 3.4.5 Human rights: The MGBs and dissent 3.4.6 International isolation 3.5 Security 3.5.1 The armed formations' formation 3.5.2 Asymmetric mutual deterrence 3.5.3 The fighting along the Contact Line 3.5.4 Disengagement 3.5.5 International Presence: The OSCE Mission 3.5.6 Prospects for a peacekeeping mission 3.5.7 Limits for a peacekeeping mission 3.6 Outlook ѴІП 66 67 70 72 75 75 77 78 78 82 86 89 92 95 96 100 102 103 103 105 106 108 111 112 114 117 119 121 123 124 125 128 130
4. Transdniestria Today Thomas de Waal 4.1 Introduction 4.2 Background 4.3 Negotiations - one step forward one step back 4.4 Politics and society in Transdniestria 4.5 The economy 4.6 The grey zone 5. 7. 136 139 142 146 149 153 Abkhazia Today Thomas de Waal 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Deadlocked negotiations 5.3 Domestic politics and Russian influence 5.4 Economy and society 5.5 Inguri power division 5.6 Tbilisi's policy 5.7 The international outlook 6. 135 South Ossetia Today Thomas de Waal 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Background 6.3 Political life 6.4 Security and borderisation 6.5 Economy and society 6.6 Links with Georgia 159 160 163 164 169 176 178 181 187 188 190 193 196 198 201 The Nagorny Karabakh Conflict in its Fourth Decade Thomas de Waal 7.1 Introduction 7.2 Faltering negotiations 7.3 Militarisation 7.4 International context 7.5 Challenges for 2020 7.6 Conclusions: What potential for incremental change? About the authors 205 206 210 214 217 223 225 228 IX |
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| spelling | De Waal, Thomas 1966- Verfasser (DE-588)131418599 aut Beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe Thomas de Waal, Nikolaus von Twickel ; edited by Michael Emerson Brussels CEPS [2020] Lanham, MD Rowman & Littlefield Publishers [2020] © 2020 IX, 228 Seiten Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Geschichte 1991- gnd rswk-swf Separatismus (DE-588)4054573-8 gnd rswk-swf Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 gnd rswk-swf Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 gnd rswk-swf Georgien (DE-588)4022406-5 gnd rswk-swf Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 gnd rswk-swf Moldawien (DE-588)4039967-9 gnd rswk-swf Bergkarabach (DE-588)4224579-5 gnd rswk-swf Osteuropa (DE-588)4075739-0 g Ukraine (DE-588)4061496-7 g Georgien (DE-588)4022406-5 g Moldawien (DE-588)4039967-9 g Bergkarabach (DE-588)4224579-5 g Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 s Separatismus (DE-588)4054573-8 s Geschichte 1991- z DE-604 Twickel, Nikolaus von Verfasser (DE-588)115172954X aut Emerson, Michael 1940- (DE-588)139153411 edt Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-5381-4418-3 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032457174&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | De Waal, Thomas 1966- Twickel, Nikolaus von Beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe Separatismus (DE-588)4054573-8 gnd Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4054573-8 (DE-588)4032081-9 (DE-588)4075739-0 (DE-588)4022406-5 (DE-588)4061496-7 (DE-588)4039967-9 (DE-588)4224579-5 |
| title | Beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe |
| title_auth | Beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe |
| title_exact_search | Beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe |
| title_full | Beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe Thomas de Waal, Nikolaus von Twickel ; edited by Michael Emerson |
| title_fullStr | Beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe Thomas de Waal, Nikolaus von Twickel ; edited by Michael Emerson |
| title_full_unstemmed | Beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe Thomas de Waal, Nikolaus von Twickel ; edited by Michael Emerson |
| title_short | Beyond frozen conflict |
| title_sort | beyond frozen conflict scenarios for the separatist disputes of eastern europe |
| title_sub | scenarios for the separatist disputes of Eastern Europe |
| topic | Separatismus (DE-588)4054573-8 gnd Konflikt (DE-588)4032081-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Separatismus Konflikt Osteuropa Georgien Ukraine Moldawien Bergkarabach |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=032457174&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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