The logic of intelligence analysis: why hypothesis testing matters
"This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be...
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Abingdon, Oxon
Routledge
2018
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-706 Volltext |
| Summary: | "This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modelling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners"-- |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource |
| ISBN: | 9780429469817 0429469810 9780429891885 0429891881 9780429891892 042989189X 9780429891878 0429891873 |
| DOI: | 10.4324/9780429469817 |
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| id | DE-604.BV047009413 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| index_date | 2024-07-03T15:58:07Z |
| indexdate | 2025-04-15T14:16:29Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780429469817 0429469810 9780429891885 0429891881 9780429891892 042989189X 9780429891878 0429891873 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-032416950 |
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| publishDate | 2018 |
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| publisher | Routledge |
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| spelling | Spielmann, Karl Frederick Verfasser (DE-588)1165062070 aut The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Karl Spielmann Abingdon, Oxon Routledge 2018 1 Online-Ressource txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier "This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modelling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners"-- Intelligence service / United States / Methodology Statistical hypothesis testing National security / United States / Evaluation https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429469817 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Spielmann, Karl Frederick The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Intelligence service / United States / Methodology Statistical hypothesis testing National security / United States / Evaluation |
| title | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters |
| title_auth | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters |
| title_exact_search | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters |
| title_exact_search_txtP | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters |
| title_full | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Karl Spielmann |
| title_fullStr | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Karl Spielmann |
| title_full_unstemmed | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Karl Spielmann |
| title_short | The logic of intelligence analysis |
| title_sort | the logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters |
| title_sub | why hypothesis testing matters |
| topic | Intelligence service / United States / Methodology Statistical hypothesis testing National security / United States / Evaluation |
| topic_facet | Intelligence service / United States / Methodology Statistical hypothesis testing National security / United States / Evaluation |
| url | https://doi.org/10.4324/9780429469817 |
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