Predictive Behavior: An Experimental Study
This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an...
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Berlin, Heidelberg
Springer Berlin Heidelberg
1993
|
| Edition: | 1st ed. 1993 |
| Series: | Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems
403 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | BTU01 Volltext |
| Summary: | This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (VI, 227 p) |
| ISBN: | 9783642957185 |
| DOI: | 10.1007/978-3-642-95718-5 |
Staff View
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| index_date | 2024-07-03T15:15:36Z |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T08:56:08Z |
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| spelling | Brennscheidt, Gunnar Verfasser aut Predictive Behavior An Experimental Study by Gunnar Brennscheidt 1st ed. 1993 Berlin, Heidelberg Springer Berlin Heidelberg 1993 1 Online-Ressource (VI, 227 p) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems 403 This book describes a series of laboratory experiments (with a total of 167 independent subjects) on forecasting behavior. In all experiments, the time series to be forecasted was generated by an abstract econometric model involving two or three artificial exogenous variables. This designprovides an optimal background for rational expectations and least-squares learning. As expected, these hypotheses do not explain observed forecasting behavior satisfactorily. Some phenomena related to this lack of rationality are studied: Concentration on changes rather than levels,underestimation of changes and overvaluation of volatile exogenous variables. Some learning behavior is observed. Finally, some aspects of individual forecasts such as prominence of "round" number, dispersion, etc.,are studied Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Economic theory Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Experiment (DE-588)4015999-1 gnd rswk-swf Mathematik (DE-588)4037944-9 gnd rswk-swf Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd rswk-swf Zeitreihe (DE-588)4127298-5 gnd rswk-swf Vorhersagetheorie (DE-588)4188671-9 gnd rswk-swf Mathematik (DE-588)4037944-9 s Experiment (DE-588)4015999-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Zeitreihe (DE-588)4127298-5 s Vorhersagetheorie (DE-588)4188671-9 s Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 s Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 9783540573111 Erscheint auch als Druck-Ausgabe 9783642957192 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-95718-5 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Brennscheidt, Gunnar Predictive Behavior An Experimental Study Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Economic theory Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Experiment (DE-588)4015999-1 gnd Mathematik (DE-588)4037944-9 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Zeitreihe (DE-588)4127298-5 gnd Vorhersagetheorie (DE-588)4188671-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4015999-1 (DE-588)4037944-9 (DE-588)4358095-6 (DE-588)4127298-5 (DE-588)4188671-9 |
| title | Predictive Behavior An Experimental Study |
| title_auth | Predictive Behavior An Experimental Study |
| title_exact_search | Predictive Behavior An Experimental Study |
| title_exact_search_txtP | Predictive Behavior An Experimental Study |
| title_full | Predictive Behavior An Experimental Study by Gunnar Brennscheidt |
| title_fullStr | Predictive Behavior An Experimental Study by Gunnar Brennscheidt |
| title_full_unstemmed | Predictive Behavior An Experimental Study by Gunnar Brennscheidt |
| title_short | Predictive Behavior |
| title_sort | predictive behavior an experimental study |
| title_sub | An Experimental Study |
| topic | Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Economic theory Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Experiment (DE-588)4015999-1 gnd Mathematik (DE-588)4037944-9 gnd Prognoseverfahren (DE-588)4358095-6 gnd Zeitreihe (DE-588)4127298-5 gnd Vorhersagetheorie (DE-588)4188671-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Economic Theory/Quantitative Economics/Mathematical Methods Economic theory Prognose Experiment Mathematik Prognoseverfahren Zeitreihe Vorhersagetheorie |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-642-95718-5 |
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