Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Göttingen
Cuvillier Verlag
2018
|
| Edition: | 1. Auflage |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVIII, 179 Seiten Diagramme 21 cm |
| ISBN: | 9783736999381 3736999380 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power |c Thomas Paulsen |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804180963309125632 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
1
INTRODUCTION.........................................................................................................................
1
1.1 PROBLEM DEFINITION AND OBJECTIVES OF THIS
THESIS........................................................ 1
1.2 COURSE OF
INVESTIGATION..................................................................................................4
2 THE GERMAN ELECTRICITY
MARKET........................................................................................
7
2.1 HISTORICAL DEVELOPMENT FROM A LEGAL PERSPECTIVE
.....................................................
7
2.1.1 THE MARKET PRIOR TO ITS
LIBERALIZATION....................................................................
7
2.1.2 AMENDMENTS OF ENWG AND
LIBERALIZATION.............................................................8
2.1.3 THE EEG AND ITS AMENDMENTS FROM 2000 TO 2017
...............................................
9
2.1.4 EUROPEAN UNION EMISSION TRADING
SCHEME........................................................ 10
2.2 THE SITUATION IN THE RETAIL
MARKET...............................................................................
11
2.3 THE WHOLESALE
MARKET................................................................................................
13
2.3.1 POWER EXCHANGES EEX AND
EPEX.......................................................................13
2.3.2 MARKET
DESIGN......................................................................................................
14
2.3.2.1 DAY-AHEAD AUCTION
MARKET...........................................................................14
2.3.2.2 CONTINUOUS INTRADAY MARKET
.........................................................................
15
2.3.2.3 FUTURES
MARKET..............................................................................................16
2.3.2.4 TEMPORAL SEQUENCE OF TRADING PERIODS
......................................................
16
2.3.3 BALANCING
ENERGY.................................................................................................
17
2.4 STRUCTURE OF THE POWER PLANT
PORTFOLIO........................................................................
18
2.4.1 MARGINAL COSTS OF POWER
PLANTS..........................................................................18
2.4.2 RECENT
DEVELOPMENTS.........................................................................................
21
3 FORECASTING PERFORMANCE OF TIME SERIES MODELS: A QUASI-META-ANALYSIS
.............
23
3.1 MOTIVATION
.23
JL_________________________________________________________________________
CONTENTS
3.2 THEORY OF MODELING AND FORECASTING ELECTRICITY SPOT PRICES
......................................
26
3.2.1 DATA
TRANSFORMATION............................................................................................
27
3.2.2 TYPES OF
MODELS....................................................................................................28
3.2.3 IN-SAMPLE AND OUT-OF-SAMPLE HORIZON
...............................................................
30
3.2.4 FORECASTING ACCURACY
MEASURES.........................................................................32
3.3 CHARACTERISTICS OF THE ANALYZED
STUDIES......................................................................33
3.3.1 CHARACTERISTICS IN
GENERAL.....................................................................................34
3.3.2 FREQUENCY AND SEGMENTATION OF DATA
................................................................
35
3.3.3 DATA
TRANSFORMATION............................................................................................
36
3.3.4 TYPES OF
MODELS....................................................................................................36
3.3.5 EXOGENOUS
VARIABLES...........................................................................................38
3.3.6 IN-SAMPLE AND OUT-OF-SAMPLE HORIZON
...............................................................
39
3.3.7 FORECASTING ACCURACY
MEASURES.........................................................................41
3.4
QUASI-META-ANALYSIS...................................................................................................
42
3.4.1
METHODOLOGY.........................................................................................................43
3.4.2 RESULTS OF FORECASTING PERFORMANCE EVALUATION
................................................
44
3.4.3 ROBUSTNESS
CHECK...............................................................................................
48
3.5 INTERIM
RESULTS.............................................................................................................
50
3.6
APPENDIX.......................................................................................................................53
3.6.1 DEFINITIONS OF ARMA AND GARCH
MODELS..........................................................53
3.6.1.1
AR..................................................................................................................
53
3.6.1.2 M A
.................................................................................................................
53
3.6.1.3 ARM
A.............................................................................................................
54
3.6.1.4
ARIMA............................................................................................................
55
3.6.1.5 SEASONAL
ARIMA...........................................................................................55
3.6.1.6 SEASONAL ARIMA WITH EXOGENOUS INPUT
........................................................
56
3.6.1.7 GARCH AND EXTENSIONS
................................................................................
56
3.6.2 LIST OF RELATED
LITERATURE......................................................................................60
3.6.3 DETAILED VOTE COUNT TABLE
..................................................................................
73
4 FORECASTING PERFORMANCE OF TIME SERIES MODELS: EMPIRICAL
STUDY.........................75
4.1
MOTIVATION.......................................................................................................................
75
4.2
HYPOTHESES..................................................................................................................77
4.2.1 PERFORMANCE OF DIFFERENT TIME SERIES MODELS
...................................................
77
4.2.2 CHOICE OF DATA TRANSFORMATION AND
SEGMENTATION............................................79
4.2.3 CHOICE OF THE IN-SAMPLE TIME
HORIZON...............................................................80
4.3
METHODOLOGY................................................................................................................80
4.4
DATA..............................................................................................................................84
4.5 MODEL STRUCTURES AND
IDENTIFICATION............................................................................86
4.6 FORECASTING PERFORMANCE
STUDY.................................................................................91
4.6.1 PERFORMANCE OF TIME SERIES
MODELS..................................................................
91
4.6.2 CHOICE OF DATA TRANSFORMATION AND
SEGMENTATION............................................97
4.6.3 CHOICE OF THE IN-SAMPLE TIME
HORIZON...............................................................99
4.7 RECAP OF THE OBTAINED
RESULTS.................................................................................
102
4.8 INTERIM
RESULTS...........................................................................................................103
4.9
APPENDIX....................................................................................................................
105
4.9.1 APPENDIX TO TRANSFORMATION AND
SEGMENTATION................................................105
4.9.2 RANKING FOR DIFFERENT IN-SAMPLE
PERIODS..........................................................106
4.9.3 RESULTS FOR DIFFERENT OUT-OF-SAMPLE
PERIODS.....................................................107
5 THE EFFECT OF WIND AND SOLAR POWER ON ELECTRICITY
PRICES.......................................110
5.1
MOTIVATION...................................................................................................................
110
5.2 LITERATURE
REVIEW......................................................................................................
112
5.2.1 MERIT-ORDER
EFFECT...............................................................................................112
5.2.2 RAMPING POWER
PLANTS.......................................................................................116
5.2.3 FORECASTING ERRORS ON WIND AND SOLAR FEED-INS
..............................................
117
5.3 MODEL
ESTIMATION........................................................................................................118
5.3.1 DATA AND DESCRIPTIVE
ANALYSIS............................................................................118
5.3.2 MODEL
DESIGN.....................................................................................................
121
5.3.2.1 REGRESSION MODEL STRUCTURE
.......................................................................
121
5.3.2.2 VARIABLE DESIGN: TECHNOLOGY OF THE MARGINAL POWER PLANT
......................
124
5.3.2.3 VARIABLE DESIGN: RAMPING
EFFECTS............................................................. 126
5.3.2.4 MODEL MODIFICATION: INTRADAY PRICES AND FORECASTING ERRORS
....................
128
5.4 EMPIRICAL
RESULTS......................................................................................................
130
5.4.1 PRICE EFFECTS OF RESIDUAL DEMAND
CHANGES..................................................... 130
5.4.2 PRICE EFFECTS OF
RAMPING....................................................................................137
5.4.3 PRICE EFFECTS OF FORECASTING
ERRORS....................................................................138
5.4.4 ROBUSTNESS OF
RESULTS.......................................................................................
140
5.5 INTERIM
RESULTS...........................................................................................................
142
5.6
APPENDIX.....................................................................................................................145
5.6.1 FULL REGRESSION
TABLE........................................................................................
145
5.6.2 APPENDIX TO 5.4.1 PRICE EFFECTS OF RESIDUAL DEMAND
CHANGES.......................148
5.6.3 APPENDIX TO 5.4.3 PRICE EFFECTS OF FORECASTING
ERRORS.......................................149
5.6.4 TABLES OF ROBUSTNESS CHECK -2
-.......................................................................
150
5.6.5 TABLES OF ROBUSTNESS CHECK -3
-......................................................... 152
6
CONCLUSION........................................................................................................................
155
7
REFERENCES........................................................................................................................159
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Paulsen, Thomas 1984- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1176740431 |
| author_facet | Paulsen, Thomas 1984- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Paulsen, Thomas 1984- |
| author_variant | t p tp |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV046419333 |
| classification_rvk | ZN 8500 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)1100060758 (DE-599)DNB1174009055 |
| dewey-full | 333.79323 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 333 - Economics of land and energy |
| dewey-raw | 333.79323 |
| dewey-search | 333.79323 |
| dewey-sort | 3333.79323 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Elektrotechnik / Elektronik / Nachrichtentechnik Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. Auflage |
| era | Geschichte 2010-2014 gnd |
| era_facet | Geschichte 2010-2014 |
| format | Thesis Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV046419333 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T08:44:06Z |
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| spelling | Paulsen, Thomas 1984- Verfasser (DE-588)1176740431 aut Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power Thomas Paulsen 1. Auflage Göttingen Cuvillier Verlag 2018 XVIII, 179 Seiten Diagramme 21 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Dissertation Technische Universität Carolo-Wilhelmina zu Braunschweig 2018 Geschichte 2010-2014 gnd rswk-swf Strompreis (DE-588)4138261-4 gnd rswk-swf Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 gnd rswk-swf Preisbildung (DE-588)4047103-2 gnd rswk-swf Erneuerbare Energien (DE-588)4068598-6 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf Erneuerbare Energien Preismodellierung auf Strommärkten Strompreise (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Erneuerbare Energien (DE-588)4068598-6 s Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 s Strompreis (DE-588)4138261-4 s Preisbildung (DE-588)4047103-2 s Geschichte 2010-2014 z DE-604 Eric Cuvillier (Firma) (DE-588)1067137041 pbl B:DE-101 application/pdf https://d-nb.info/1174009055/04 Inhaltsverzeichnis DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031831796&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Paulsen, Thomas 1984- Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power Strompreis (DE-588)4138261-4 gnd Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 gnd Preisbildung (DE-588)4047103-2 gnd Erneuerbare Energien (DE-588)4068598-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4138261-4 (DE-588)4328181-3 (DE-588)4047103-2 (DE-588)4068598-6 (DE-588)4011882-4 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power |
| title_auth | Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power |
| title_exact_search | Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power |
| title_full | Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power Thomas Paulsen |
| title_fullStr | Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power Thomas Paulsen |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power Thomas Paulsen |
| title_short | Modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power |
| title_sort | modeling and forecasting wholesale electricity prices under consideration of wind and solar power |
| topic | Strompreis (DE-588)4138261-4 gnd Elektrizitätsmarkt (DE-588)4328181-3 gnd Preisbildung (DE-588)4047103-2 gnd Erneuerbare Energien (DE-588)4068598-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Strompreis Elektrizitätsmarkt Preisbildung Erneuerbare Energien Deutschland Hochschulschrift |
| url | https://d-nb.info/1174009055/04 http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031831796&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT paulsenthomas modelingandforecastingwholesaleelectricitypricesunderconsiderationofwindandsolarpower AT ericcuvillierfirma modelingandforecastingwholesaleelectricitypricesunderconsiderationofwindandsolarpower |
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