Only the dead: the persistence of war in the modern age
" The idea that war is going out of style has become the conventional wisdom in recent years. But in Only the Dead, award-winning author Bear Braumoeller demonstrates that it shouldn't have. With a rare combination of historical expertise, statistical acumen, and accessible prose, Braumoel...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, NY
Oxford University Press
[2019]
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Zusammenfassung: | " The idea that war is going out of style has become the conventional wisdom in recent years. But in Only the Dead, award-winning author Bear Braumoeller demonstrates that it shouldn't have. With a rare combination of historical expertise, statistical acumen, and accessible prose, Braumoeller shows that the evidence simply doesn't support the decline-of-war thesis propounded by scholars like Steven Pinker. He argues that the key to understanding trends in warfare lies, not in the spread of humanitarian values, but rather in the formation of international orders-sets of expectations about behavior that allow countries to work in concert, as they did in the Concert of Europe and have done in the postwar Western liberal order. With a nod toward the American sociologist Charles Tilly, who argued that "war made the state and the state made war," Braumoeller argues that the same is true of international orders: while they reduce conflict within their borders, they can also clash violently with one another, as the Western and communist orders did throughout the Cold War. Both highly readable and rigorous, Only the Dead offers a realistic assessment of humanity's quest to abolish warfare. While pessimists have been too quick to discount the successes of our attempts to reduce international conflict, optimists are prone to put too much faith in human nature. Reality lies somewhere in between: While the aspirations of humankind to govern its behavior with reason and justice have had shocking success in moderating the harsh dictates of realpolitik, the institutions that we have created to prevent war are unlikely to achieve anything like total success-as evidenced by the multitude of conflicts in recent decades. As the old adage advises us, only the dead have seen the end of war. "-- |
| Beschreibung: | xxiii, 314 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9780197624272 9780190849535 |
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| adam_text | CONTENTS Preface xi The Decline-of-War Thesis I xvi Only the Dead 1. Introduction з The Spread of Peace and the Spread of War The Arguments 5 Evaluating the Arguments 7 War, Chance, and Numbers 9 Explaining Systemic Trends in Warfare II Reasons for Skepticism 2. Reasons for Skepticism, Part I: Data Trends in Conflict Initiation The “Long Peace” 21 22 24 Attitudes About War 29 The Pacifying Effects of Civilization Trends in Battle Deaths 39 The Pitfalls of Per Capita 42 VII 33 14 3
Vlil CONTENTS War and Peace 44 Conclusion 45 3. Reasons for Skepticism, Part II: Explanation 47 The Complexity of International Behavior 48 Dispositions and Situations 49 Strategic Interaction 54 Structure and Anarchy 56 The Spread of Enlightenment Humanism 58 The Dark Side of the Enlightenment 59 Just War and Perpetual Peace 62 The Study of WEIRD People 64 The Role of Chance 65 Randomness in Thick-Tailed Distributions 68 Conclusion 72 III What the Data Tell Us 4. Is International Conflict Going out of Style? 75 Three Measures of Warfare 76 Measuring International Conflict 77 Measuring the Rate of Conflict Initiation 83 Trends in the Rate of Conflict Initiation 84 Interpretation 91 But But But... 93 Are the Data Reliable? 93 What About Unreciprocated Uses of Force? 95 What About Other Kinds of International Wars? What About...? 99 Conclusion 99 5. Is International Conflict Getting Less Deadly? 100 Measuring the Deadliness of War 101 What We Already Know: Wars Got Deadlier 230 Years Ago 104 Wars Haven’t Gotten Less Intense Since Then 106 Wars Haven’t Gotten Less Severe, Either 114 War Prevalence Has Changed... 117 But the Danger of Escalation Hasn’t Changed 118 96
CONTENTS And That’s What Really Matters 120 Caveat: Militaries Don’t Keep Up With Population Growth 122 Interpretation 124 Conclusion 130 6. Are the Causes of International Conflict Becoming Less Potent? 131 The Potency of the Causes of War 131 Measuring Potency 133 Testing 135 Interpretation 137 Conclusion 139 IV Making Sense of the Data 7. International Order 143 International Order 145 What Is Order? 149 The Sources of Legitimacy 156 The Role of Human Nature 157 Order and the Sources of Systemic Conflict Issues and War 160 The Impact of Order 162 The Calculus of War 165 Information Problems 167 The Impact of Order 16B Commitment Problems 171 The Impact of Order 173 Conclusion 174 8. History and International Order 178 Nineteenth-Century Europe 179 The Concert of Europe 179 The Mid-Nineteenth Century 184 The Bismarckian System 186 Weltpolitik 192 The Interwar Period 199 The Cold War 202 159
x CONTENTS The Post-Cold War Period Data and Analysis Conclusion 206 208 210 V Conclusion 9. Conclusion and Implications Overall Implications 215 218 War Isn’t Getting Less Deadly 218 International Orders Foster Peace... ...If We Want It 220 Order Also Produces War Orders Fade 221 War Abides 223 Appendix 219 221 225 Chapter 4 Notes 225 What About Civil Wars? 225 What About Political Relevance? 232 What About the Correlates of War Data? What About a Poisson Test? Chapter 5 Notes 232 234 236 Regression Results 236 A Formal Test for Differences in the Slopes of Power-Law Distributions Chapter 6 Notes Detailed Results Notes 249 Bibliography Index 295 269 238 243 243
The idea that war is going out of style has become the conventional wisdom in recent years. But in Only the Dead, award-winning author Bear Braumoeller demonstrates diat, unfortunately, it has not. With a rare combination of historical expertise, statistical acumen, and accessible prose, Braumoeller shows that the evidence simply doesn’t support the decline-of-war thesis propounded by scholars like Steven Pinker. He argues that the key to understanding trends in warfare lies not in the spread of humanitarian values, but rather in the formation of international orders—sets of expectations about behavior that allow countries to work in concert, as they did in the Concert of Europe and have done in the postwarWestern liberal order. Both highly readable and rigorous, Only the Dead offers a realistic assessment of humanity’s quest to abolish warfare.
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| author | Braumoeller, Bear F. |
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| contents | Machine generated contents note: -- Preface -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Empirical Reasons for Skepticism -- 3 Theoretical Reasons for Skepticism -- 4 A Conventional View of War -- 5 Measuring War -- 6 A Few Handy Tools -- 7 Trends in Warfare, 1815-present |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-10T08:36:51Z |
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| isbn | 9780197624272 9780190849535 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Braumoeller, Bear F. Verfasser (DE-588)1034142658 aut Only the dead the persistence of war in the modern age Bear F. Braumoeller (The Ohio State University) New York, NY Oxford University Press [2019] xxiii, 314 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Machine generated contents note: -- Preface -- 1 Introduction -- 2 Empirical Reasons for Skepticism -- 3 Theoretical Reasons for Skepticism -- 4 A Conventional View of War -- 5 Measuring War -- 6 A Few Handy Tools -- 7 Trends in Warfare, 1815-present " The idea that war is going out of style has become the conventional wisdom in recent years. But in Only the Dead, award-winning author Bear Braumoeller demonstrates that it shouldn't have. With a rare combination of historical expertise, statistical acumen, and accessible prose, Braumoeller shows that the evidence simply doesn't support the decline-of-war thesis propounded by scholars like Steven Pinker. He argues that the key to understanding trends in warfare lies, not in the spread of humanitarian values, but rather in the formation of international orders-sets of expectations about behavior that allow countries to work in concert, as they did in the Concert of Europe and have done in the postwar Western liberal order. With a nod toward the American sociologist Charles Tilly, who argued that "war made the state and the state made war," Braumoeller argues that the same is true of international orders: while they reduce conflict within their borders, they can also clash violently with one another, as the Western and communist orders did throughout the Cold War. Both highly readable and rigorous, Only the Dead offers a realistic assessment of humanity's quest to abolish warfare. While pessimists have been too quick to discount the successes of our attempts to reduce international conflict, optimists are prone to put too much faith in human nature. Reality lies somewhere in between: While the aspirations of humankind to govern its behavior with reason and justice have had shocking success in moderating the harsh dictates of realpolitik, the institutions that we have created to prevent war are unlikely to achieve anything like total success-as evidenced by the multitude of conflicts in recent decades. As the old adage advises us, only the dead have seen the end of war. "-- Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 gnd rswk-swf Kriegsursache (DE-588)4138422-2 gnd rswk-swf Internationaler Konflikt (DE-588)4162071-9 gnd rswk-swf Konfliktforschung (DE-588)4073678-7 gnd rswk-swf Kriegsverhütung (DE-588)4165720-2 gnd rswk-swf War / Causes War / Prevention International organization POLITICAL SCIENCE / Civics & Citizenship POLITICAL SCIENCE / International Relations / Diplomacy Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 s Internationaler Konflikt (DE-588)4162071-9 s Konfliktforschung (DE-588)4073678-7 s Kriegsursache (DE-588)4138422-2 s Kriegsverhütung (DE-588)4165720-2 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-0-19-084954-2 Digitalisierung BSB München - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031538424&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031538424&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
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| title | Only the dead the persistence of war in the modern age |
| title_auth | Only the dead the persistence of war in the modern age |
| title_exact_search | Only the dead the persistence of war in the modern age |
| title_full | Only the dead the persistence of war in the modern age Bear F. Braumoeller (The Ohio State University) |
| title_fullStr | Only the dead the persistence of war in the modern age Bear F. Braumoeller (The Ohio State University) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Only the dead the persistence of war in the modern age Bear F. Braumoeller (The Ohio State University) |
| title_short | Only the dead |
| title_sort | only the dead the persistence of war in the modern age |
| title_sub | the persistence of war in the modern age |
| topic | Krieg (DE-588)4033114-3 gnd Kriegsursache (DE-588)4138422-2 gnd Internationaler Konflikt (DE-588)4162071-9 gnd Konfliktforschung (DE-588)4073678-7 gnd Kriegsverhütung (DE-588)4165720-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Krieg Kriegsursache Internationaler Konflikt Konfliktforschung Kriegsverhütung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031538424&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=031538424&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT braumoellerbearf onlythedeadthepersistenceofwarinthemodernage |