Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments: connecting the dots
This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we a...
Gespeichert in:
| Hauptverfasser: | , , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
New York, NY
Cambridge University Press
2016
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Zusammenfassung: | This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.-- |
| Beschreibung: | xxii, 262 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9781107122604 1107122600 |
Internformat
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments |b connecting the dots |c Gheorghe Tecuci (George Mason University), David A. Schum (George Mason University), Dorin Marcu (George Mason University), Mihai Boicu (George Mason University) |
| 264 | 1 | |a New York, NY |b Cambridge University Press |c 2016 | |
| 300 | |a xxii, 262 Seiten |b Illustrationen, Diagramme | ||
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| 505 | 8 | |a Intelligence analysis : "connecting the dots" -- Marshaling thoughts and evidence for imaginative analysis -- Discipline-CD : a cognitive assistant for connecting the dots -- Evidence -- Divide and conquer : a necessary approach to complex analysis -- Assessing the believability of evidence -- Chains of custody -- Recurrent substance-blind combinations of evidence -- Major sources of uncertainty in masses of evidence -- Assessing and reporting uncertainty : some alternative methods -- Analytic bias -- Learning and reusing analytic expertise : beyond Discipline-CD. | |
| 520 | 3 | |a This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.-- | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Intelligence service / Methodology | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Evidence | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Inference | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Reasoning / Data processing | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Evidence | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Inference | |
| 653 | 0 | |a Reasoning / Data processing | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Schum, David A. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Marcu, Dorin |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 700 | 1 | |a Boicu, Mihai |c (Infomation scientist) |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-031255824 | ||
Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804180015220260864 |
|---|---|
| any_adam_object | |
| author | Tecuci, Gheorghe 1954- Schum, David A. Marcu, Dorin Boicu, Mihai (Infomation scientist) |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1120151937 |
| author_facet | Tecuci, Gheorghe 1954- Schum, David A. Marcu, Dorin Boicu, Mihai (Infomation scientist) |
| author_role | aut aut aut aut |
| author_sort | Tecuci, Gheorghe 1954- |
| author_variant | g t gt d a s da das d m dm m b mb |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV045872510 |
| classification_rvk | CP 4000 CM 4400 |
| contents | Intelligence analysis : "connecting the dots" -- Marshaling thoughts and evidence for imaginative analysis -- Discipline-CD : a cognitive assistant for connecting the dots -- Evidence -- Divide and conquer : a necessary approach to complex analysis -- Assessing the believability of evidence -- Chains of custody -- Recurrent substance-blind combinations of evidence -- Major sources of uncertainty in masses of evidence -- Assessing and reporting uncertainty : some alternative methods -- Analytic bias -- Learning and reusing analytic expertise : beyond Discipline-CD. |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)953256486 (DE-599)BVBBV045872510 |
| discipline | Psychologie |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV045872510 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T08:29:02Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781107122604 1107122600 |
| language | English |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-031255824 |
| oclc_num | 953256486 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-521 |
| owner_facet | DE-521 |
| physical | xxii, 262 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| publishDate | 2016 |
| publishDateSearch | 2016 |
| publishDateSort | 2016 |
| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Tecuci, Gheorghe 1954- Verfasser (DE-588)1120151937 aut Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments connecting the dots Gheorghe Tecuci (George Mason University), David A. Schum (George Mason University), Dorin Marcu (George Mason University), Mihai Boicu (George Mason University) New York, NY Cambridge University Press 2016 xxii, 262 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Intelligence analysis : "connecting the dots" -- Marshaling thoughts and evidence for imaginative analysis -- Discipline-CD : a cognitive assistant for connecting the dots -- Evidence -- Divide and conquer : a necessary approach to complex analysis -- Assessing the believability of evidence -- Chains of custody -- Recurrent substance-blind combinations of evidence -- Major sources of uncertainty in masses of evidence -- Assessing and reporting uncertainty : some alternative methods -- Analytic bias -- Learning and reusing analytic expertise : beyond Discipline-CD. This unique book on intelligence analysis covers several vital but often overlooked topics. It teaches the evidential and inferential issues involved in 'connecting the dots' to draw defensible and persuasive conclusions from masses of evidence: from observations we make, or questions we ask, we generate alternative hypotheses as explanations or answers; we make use of our hypotheses to generate new lines of inquiry and discover new evidence; and we test the hypotheses with the discovered evidence. To facilitate understanding of these issues and enable the performance of complex analyses, the book introduces an intelligent analytical tool, called Disciple-CD. Readers will practice with Disciple-CD and learn how to formulate hypotheses; develop arguments that reduce complex hypotheses to simpler ones; collect evidence to evaluate the simplest hypotheses; and assess the relevance and the believability of evidence, which combine in complex ways to determine its inferential force and the probabilities of the hypotheses.-- Intelligence service / Methodology Evidence Inference Reasoning / Data processing Schum, David A. Verfasser aut Marcu, Dorin Verfasser aut Boicu, Mihai (Infomation scientist) Verfasser aut |
| spellingShingle | Tecuci, Gheorghe 1954- Schum, David A. Marcu, Dorin Boicu, Mihai (Infomation scientist) Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments connecting the dots Intelligence analysis : "connecting the dots" -- Marshaling thoughts and evidence for imaginative analysis -- Discipline-CD : a cognitive assistant for connecting the dots -- Evidence -- Divide and conquer : a necessary approach to complex analysis -- Assessing the believability of evidence -- Chains of custody -- Recurrent substance-blind combinations of evidence -- Major sources of uncertainty in masses of evidence -- Assessing and reporting uncertainty : some alternative methods -- Analytic bias -- Learning and reusing analytic expertise : beyond Discipline-CD. |
| title | Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments connecting the dots |
| title_auth | Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments connecting the dots |
| title_exact_search | Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments connecting the dots |
| title_full | Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments connecting the dots Gheorghe Tecuci (George Mason University), David A. Schum (George Mason University), Dorin Marcu (George Mason University), Mihai Boicu (George Mason University) |
| title_fullStr | Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments connecting the dots Gheorghe Tecuci (George Mason University), David A. Schum (George Mason University), Dorin Marcu (George Mason University), Mihai Boicu (George Mason University) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments connecting the dots Gheorghe Tecuci (George Mason University), David A. Schum (George Mason University), Dorin Marcu (George Mason University), Mihai Boicu (George Mason University) |
| title_short | Intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence, hypotheses, and arguments |
| title_sort | intelligence analysis as discovery of evidence hypotheses and arguments connecting the dots |
| title_sub | connecting the dots |
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