Consumer expectations: micro foundations and macro impact
"Expected outcomes offer no new information. Results that are unexpected challenge orthodox views. While most discrepancies are resolved upon detailed examination, the few that remain have the potential to lead to a new understanding of human behavior. Over the past four decades, I have held a...
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge
Cambridge University Press
2019
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Summary: | "Expected outcomes offer no new information. Results that are unexpected challenge orthodox views. While most discrepancies are resolved upon detailed examination, the few that remain have the potential to lead to a new understanding of human behavior. Over the past four decades, I have held a unique position that has allowed me to directly observe how people form and act on their economic expectations as the director of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys. I initially resisted the startling implications of my observations as they were in inconsistent with accepted theories in economics and psychology"... |
| Physical Description: | xix, 343 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9781107004696 9780521181136 |
Staff View
MARC
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| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures page xii
List of Tables xiii
Preface xv
1 Expectations and the Macroeconomy 1
Formation of Expectations 5
A More Realistic Paradigm 6
Full Mental Faculties 9
Rationality Is Context Sensitive 10
Economics of Recessions 12
Recessions Are Irrational 12
The Powerful Consumer 14
The Urge to Act 17
Paradigm Shift 18
I THE FORMATION OF EXPECTATIONS 21
2 Conventional Theories of Expectations 29
The Keynesian Mandate 32
What Is Past Is Prologue 33
Rational Expectations Hypothesis 36
How Should Rationality Be Tested? 37
Private versus Public Information 38
Empirical Models 40
Importance of Accuracy 41
Costs and Benefits of Updated Expectations 42
Refinements of Expectations Models 44
Reification of Economic Data 45
vii
Contents
viii
Data on Economie Expectations 47
Are Expectations Backward or Forward Looking? 48
Rational Expectations: Economists versus Consumers 50
Evidence of Cognitive Limitations 51
Unemployment Expectations 54
Weak Evidence for Cognitive Limitations 64
3 Private and Public Sources of Economie Information 68
Survey Methodology 73
Knowledge of Official Data on the Economy 75
Reported Awareness of Official Economic Statistics 76
Demographic Correlates of Knowledge of Official Statistics 79
Specific Rate Answers 80
Lack of Knowledge about Economic Statistics 80
Importance of Information on Official Economic Statistics 81
Coverage of Official Economic Statistics in the Mass Media 84
Private Knowledge about the Performance of the Economy 89
Assessment of Peoples Knowledge of Official Statistics 91
4 Processing Economic Information 94
Subliminal Travel 99
Conscious, Preconscious, and Subliminal Processing 101
Optimal Use of Cognitive Resources 104
Expectations Are Innate 107
Inherent Numerical Sense 111
Preference for Frequencies 113
Nonconscious Learning and Model Building 114
Attention to Information 118
Nonconscious Learning 119
Similarities to Econometric Methods 120
The Automaticity of Expectations 122
5 Affective Influences on Expectations 124
What Are Affective Influences? 126
Evaluations 127
Moods 128
Emotions 129
Automatic Evaluations of Economic Information 130
Consumer Confidence Measurements 132
Contents
IX
The Influence of Moods on Information Processing 134
Negative News Dominates Conscious Recall 137
Mood and Cyclical Changes in Confidence 140
Expectations Need Emotions 142
Self-Motivation 144
Social Contagion 145
Passionate Expectations 148
6 The Construction of Expectations 151
The Masterpiece of Evolution 155
Dual-Process Models 157
Social Resources 159
Preference for Conscious Deliberation 162
Integrated Mental Resources 164
Attention: Conscious and Nonconscious 166
Tailored Expectations 169
When Are Expectations Formed? 170
Source of Economic Information 173
Context Shapes Expectations 174
Accuracy of Expectations 177
Minimizing the Cost of Accuracy 180
Importance of Social Interactions 183
Scientific Lament 184
Required Paradigm Shift 186
A New Theory of Economic Expectations 190
II THE CONSUMER AND THE MACRO ECONOMY 195
7 Expectations of Macroeconomic Cycles 203
Consumers Shift from Subsistence to Discretion 208
What Causes Recessions? 211
Elephants and Fleas 212
Restricted Empirical Tests 214
Self-Fulfilling Expectations 216
Expectations of Macroeconomic Cycles 219
Consumers’ Expectations as a Leading Economic Indicator 222
Subgroup Variations in the Index of Consumer
Sentiment 225
New Micro Foundations for Macroeconomics 229
X
Contents
8 The Measurement of Expectations 234
Behavioral Economics 241
Index of Consumer Sentiment 243
Survey Methodology 244
Sample Design and Interview Methodology 244
Questions Used to Measure Consumer Sentiment 245
Index Construction 248
Alternate Methods of Index Construction 249
Expectations and Measurement Methods 253
Response Scales 257
Probability Measures of Expectations 258
Cognitive Burden 259
Measurement of Uncertainty 261
Framing and Context Effects 263
Experimental Tests of Probability Measures 264
Probability Measures 266
Incomplete Use of Probability Scales 268
Errors in Probability Assessments 270
Comparisons of Probability versus Verbal Likelihood Scales 274
Challenges in the Twenty-first Century 278
New Sentiment Measures 279
New Analytic Strategies 280
New Data Collection Methods 281
9 Tailored Economic Expectations 283
Macroeconomic Emphasis 287
Expectations among Socioeconomic Subgroups 289
Differences by Education 291
Differences by Household Income 294
Differences by Age 297
Differences by Gender and Marital Status 301
Differences across Geographic Regions 304
A Rising Tide ... 304
10 Economic Expectations: Paradigms and Theories 309
Formation of Expectations 310
Impact on Macroeconomy 312
Equilibrium as Context 313
Contents
xi
Orthodox Defense of Rational Expectations 315
Resistance to and Acceptance of the New Paradigm 317
Behavioral Economics 324
References 327
Index 341
|
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| isbn | 9781107004696 9780521181136 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Curtin, Richard T. (DE-588)170517799 aut Consumer expectations micro foundations and macro impact Richard T. Curtin, University of Michigan Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2019 xix, 343 Seiten Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier "Expected outcomes offer no new information. Results that are unexpected challenge orthodox views. While most discrepancies are resolved upon detailed examination, the few that remain have the potential to lead to a new understanding of human behavior. Over the past four decades, I have held a unique position that has allowed me to directly observe how people form and act on their economic expectations as the director of the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment surveys. I initially resisted the startling implications of my observations as they were in inconsistent with accepted theories in economics and psychology"... BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General / bisacsh Consumers Consumer behavior Marketing BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General Verbraucherverhalten (DE-588)4062644-1 gnd rswk-swf Erwartungsbildung (DE-588)4193073-3 gnd rswk-swf Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd rswk-swf Verbraucherverhalten (DE-588)4062644-1 s Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 s Erwartungsbildung (DE-588)4193073-3 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-0-511-79159-8 V:DE-601;B:DE-206 application/pdf http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/1029803056.pdf Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Augsburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030682213&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Curtin, Richard T. Consumer expectations micro foundations and macro impact BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General / bisacsh Consumers Consumer behavior Marketing BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General Verbraucherverhalten (DE-588)4062644-1 gnd Erwartungsbildung (DE-588)4193073-3 gnd Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4062644-1 (DE-588)4193073-3 (DE-588)4037174-8 |
| title | Consumer expectations micro foundations and macro impact |
| title_auth | Consumer expectations micro foundations and macro impact |
| title_exact_search | Consumer expectations micro foundations and macro impact |
| title_full | Consumer expectations micro foundations and macro impact Richard T. Curtin, University of Michigan |
| title_fullStr | Consumer expectations micro foundations and macro impact Richard T. Curtin, University of Michigan |
| title_full_unstemmed | Consumer expectations micro foundations and macro impact Richard T. Curtin, University of Michigan |
| title_short | Consumer expectations |
| title_sort | consumer expectations micro foundations and macro impact |
| title_sub | micro foundations and macro impact |
| topic | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General / bisacsh Consumers Consumer behavior Marketing BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General Verbraucherverhalten (DE-588)4062644-1 gnd Erwartungsbildung (DE-588)4193073-3 gnd Makroökonomie (DE-588)4037174-8 gnd |
| topic_facet | BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General / bisacsh Consumers Consumer behavior Marketing BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Economics / General Verbraucherverhalten Erwartungsbildung Makroökonomie |
| url | http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/1029803056.pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030682213&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT curtinrichardt consumerexpectationsmicrofoundationsandmacroimpact |
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