The logic of intelligence analysis: why hypothesis testing matters
"This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be...
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
London ; New York
Routledge
2018
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Routledge focus
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Zusammenfassung: | "This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modelling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners"... |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | xiii, 103 Seiten |
| ISBN: | 9781138601963 |
Internformat
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | THE LOGIC OF INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS
/ SPIELMANN, KARL FREDERICKYYEAUTHOR
: 2018
TABLE OF CONTENTS / INHALTSVERZEICHNIS
PREFACE : REVISITING AN OLD PROBLEM : NEW CONCERNS, NEW REMEDIES
MAYBE IT S TIME FOR SOMETHING DIFFERENT
STRENGTHENING INTELLIGENCE THREAT ANALYSIS
USING ENHANCED ANALYTIC TECHNIQUES FOR THREAT ANALYSIS : A CASE STUDY
ILLUSTRATION
I GOT ALGORITHM : CAN THERE BE A NATE SILVER IN INTELLIGENCE?
DIESES SCHRIFTSTUECK WURDE MASCHINELL ERZEUGT.
|
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| spelling | Spielmann, Karl Frederick Verfasser (DE-588)1165062070 aut The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Karl Spielmann London ; New York Routledge 2018 xiii, 103 Seiten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Routledge focus Includes bibliographical references and index "This book discusses the application of hypothesis testing to the practice of intelligence analysis. By drawing on longstanding procedures of scientific method, particularly hypothesis testing, this book strongly critiques standard intelligence analytic practices. It shows these practices to be inadequate, as they are illogical in terms of what formal philosophy says any intelligence analysts can realistically be expected to know, and for the future when analysts will face pressures to adapt to digital age modelling techniques. The methodology focuses on identifying and remedying analytic errors caused by analyst cognitive biases and by foreign denial and deception. To demonstrate that it is a practical tool, it walks analysts through a case study, step by step, to show how its hypothesis testing can be implemented. It also invites a comparative test in the real world with any other intelligence methodologies to assess its strengths and weaknesses in predicting the outcome of an actual "live" intelligence issue. This book will be of much interest to students of intelligence studies, public policy and national security, as well as practitioners"... Intelligence service United States Methodology Statistical hypothesis testing National security United States Evaluation Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 gnd rswk-swf Spionageabwehr (DE-588)4182342-4 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Spionageabwehr (DE-588)4182342-4 s Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe, ebk. 978-0-4294-6981-7 LoC Fremddatenuebernahme application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030498144&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Spielmann, Karl Frederick The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Intelligence service United States Methodology Statistical hypothesis testing National security United States Evaluation Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 gnd Spionageabwehr (DE-588)4182342-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4122795-5 (DE-588)4182342-4 (DE-588)4078704-7 |
| title | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters |
| title_auth | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters |
| title_exact_search | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters |
| title_full | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Karl Spielmann |
| title_fullStr | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Karl Spielmann |
| title_full_unstemmed | The logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters Karl Spielmann |
| title_short | The logic of intelligence analysis |
| title_sort | the logic of intelligence analysis why hypothesis testing matters |
| title_sub | why hypothesis testing matters |
| topic | Intelligence service United States Methodology Statistical hypothesis testing National security United States Evaluation Analyse (DE-588)4122795-5 gnd Spionageabwehr (DE-588)4182342-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Intelligence service United States Methodology Statistical hypothesis testing National security United States Evaluation Analyse Spionageabwehr USA |
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