Decision theory with a human face:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge ; New York ; Port Melbourne ; Delhi ; Singapore
Cambridge University Press
2017
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Physical Description: | xiv, 335 Seiten Illustrationen |
| ISBN: | 9781107003217 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Decision theory with a human face |c Richard Bradley (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
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| 650 | 4 | |a Decision making |x Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Uncertainty |x Mathematical models | |
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
List of Figures page x
List of Tables xi
Preface xiii
Introduction 1
PART I RATIONALITY, UNCERTAINTY AND CHOICE 7
1 Decision Problems 9
1.1 Maximisation of Expected Benefit 9
1.2 Framing Decisions 13
1.3 Savage’s Theory 16
2 Rationality 21
2.1 Moderate Humeanism 21
2.2 Tfce Choice Principle 24
2.3 Subjectivism 27
3 Uncertainty 31
3.1 Evaluative Uncertainty 32
3.2 Option Uncertainty 35
3.3 Modal Uncertainty 39
4 Justifying Bayesianism 41
4.1 Pragmatism 42
4.2 Interpretations of Preference 45
4.3 Representation Theorems 47
4.4 Savage s Representation Theorem 49
4.5 Evaluation of Savage s Axioms 54
4.6 Evaluation of Savage s Argument 59
Vll
Vlll
Contents
PART II PROSPECTIVE RATIONALITY 63
5 Rational Belief and Desire 65
5.1 Agents 65
5.2 Prospects 66
5.3 Attitudes 71
5.4 Rational Belief and Desire 77
5.5 Aspirations of Objectivity 85
6 Conditional Attitudes 89
6.1 Suppositions 90
6.2 Suppositional Probability and Desirability 92
6.3 Evidential Supposition 95
6.4 Independence 98
6.5 Foundations* 99
6.6 Hypothetical Reasoning 104
7 Conditionals and the Ramsey Test 109
7.1 The Ramsey Test for Belief 109
7.2 The Ramsey Test for Desire 111
7.3 Chances and Counterfactuals 113
7.4 Foundations 116
7.5 Facing the Triviality Results 118
7.6 Partitioning Conditionals 122
7.7 Summary 125
PART III FACING THE WORLD 127
8 Multidimensional Possible-World Semantics 129
8.1 Prospects and Possible Worlds 129
8.2 Multidimensional Semantics 136
8.3 Probability 142
8.4 Desirability and Count erf actual Value 146
8.5 Value Actualism 149
8.6 Partitioning Conditionals 152
8.7 Concluding Remarks 155
9 Taking Action 157
9.1 Decision Principles 157
9.2 Preference-Based Choice 159
9.3 Decisions under Risk 162
9.4 Decision Making under Uncertainty 165
9.5 Bayesian Decision Theory 169
9.6 Causal Decision Theory 177
Contents ix
10 The Learning Agent 182
10.1 Introduction 182
10.2 Experience and Learning 185
10.3 Classical Bayesian Conditioning 188
10.4 Jeffrey Conditioning 192
10.5 Adams Conditioning 196
10.6 Preference Change 200
PART IV RATIONALITY WITHIN BOUNDS 213
11 Imprecise Bayesian ism 215
11.1 Introduction 215
11.2 Bounded Minds 216
11.3 Imprecise Bayesianism 223
11.4 Severe Uncertainty 227
11.5 Rational Incomplete Preference 232
11.6 Challenges to Imprecise Bay esianism 23 8
12 Changing Your Mind 242
12.1 Attitude Change 243
12.2 Changing an Incomplete State of Mind 244
12.3 Unawareness 252
12.4 Changes in States of Awareness 256
13 Decision Making under Ambiguity 262
13.1 Introduction 262
13.2 Reaching a Judgement 263
13.3 Alternative Decision Rules 271
13.4 Cautious Decision Making 277
13.5 Models of Ambiguity Aversion* 280
13.6 The Rationality of Ambiguity Aversion 283
13.7 Concluding Remarks 286
14 Confidence 289
14.1 The Paradox of Ideal Evidence 289
14.2 Confidence-Based Learning 293
14.3 A Model of Confidence 296
14.4 Concluding Remarks 303
Appendix: Proofs 305
Bibliography 322
Index 331
Contents
List of Figures page x
List of Tables xi
Preface xiii
Introduction 1
PART I RATIONALITY, UNCERTAINTY AND CHOICE 7
1 Decision Problems 9
1.1 Maximisation of Expected Benefit 9
1.2 Framing Decisions 13
1.3 Savage’s Theory 16
2 Rationality 21
2.1 Moderate Humeanism 21
2.2 Tfce Choice Principle 24
2.3 Subjectivism 27
3 Uncertainty 31
3.1 Evaluative Uncertainty 32
3.2 Option Uncertainty 35
3.3 Modal Uncertainty 39
4 Justifying Bayesianism 41
4.1 Pragmatism 42
4.2 Interpretations of Preference 45
4.3 Representation Theorems 47
4.4 Savage s Representation Theorem 49
4.5 Evaluation of Savage s Axioms 54
4.6 Evaluation of Savage s Argument 59 Vll
Vll
Vlll
Contents
PART II PROSPECTIVE RATIONALITY 63
5 Rational Belief and Desire 65
5.1 Agents 65
5.2 Prospects 66
5.3 Attitudes 71
5.4 Rational Belief and Desire 77
5.5 Aspirations of Objectivity 85
6 Conditional Attitudes 89
6.1 Suppositions 90
6.2 Suppositional Probability and Desirability 92
6.3 Evidential Supposition 95
6.4 Independence 98
6.5 Foundations* 99
6.6 Hypothetical Reasoning 104
7 Conditionals and the Ramsey Test 109
7.1 The Ramsey Test for Belief 109
7.2 The Ramsey Test for Desire 111
7.3 Chances and Counterfactuals 113
7.4 Foundations 116
7.5 Facing the Triviality Results 118
7.6 Partitioning Conditionals 122
7.7 Summary 125
PART III FACING THE WORLD 127
8 Multidimensional Possible-World Semantics 129
8.1 Prospects and Possible Worlds 129
8.2 Multidimensional Semantics 136
8.3 Probability 142
8.4 Desirability and Count erf actual Value 146
8.5 Value Actualism 149
8.6 Partitioning Conditionals 152
8.7 Concluding Remarks 155
9 Taking Action 157
9.1 Decision Principles 157
9.2 Preference-Based Choice 159
9.3 Decisions under Risk 162
9.4 Decision Making under Uncertainty 165
9.5 Bayesian Decision Theory 169
9.6 Causal Decision Theory 177
Contents ix
10 The Learning Agent 182
10.1 Introduction 182
10.2 Experience and Learning 185
10.3 Classical Bayesian Conditioning 188
10.4 Jeffrey Conditioning 192
10.5 Adams Conditioning 196
10.6 Preference Change 200
PART IV RATIONALITY WITHIN BOUNDS 213
11 Imprecise Bayesian ism 215
11.1 Introduction 215
11.2 Bounded Minds 216
11.3 Imprecise Bayesianism 223
11.4 Severe Uncertainty 227
11.5 Rational Incomplete Preference 232
11.6 Challenges to Imprecise Bay esianism 23 8
12 Changing Your Mind 242
12.1 Attitude Change 243
12.2 Changing an Incomplete State of Mind 244
12.3 Unawareness 252
12.4 Changes in States of Awareness 256
13 Decision Making under Ambiguity 262
13.1 Introduction 262
13.2 Reaching a Judgement 263
13.3 Alternative Decision Rules 271
13.4 Cautious Decision Making 277
13.5 Models of Ambiguity Aversion* 280
13.6 The Rationality of Ambiguity Aversion 283
13.7 Concluding Remarks 286
14 Confidence 289
14.1 The Paradox of Ideal Evidence 289
14.2 Confidence-Based Learning 293
14.3 A Model of Confidence 296
14.4 Concluding Remarks 303
Appendix: Proofs 305
Bibliography 322
Index 331
|
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| dewey-ones | 519 - Probabilities and applied mathematics |
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| dewey-search | 519.5/42 |
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| dewey-tens | 510 - Mathematics |
| discipline | Mathematik |
| format | Book |
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| isbn | 9781107003217 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Bradley, Richard 1964- (DE-588)1159902690 aut Decision theory with a human face Richard Bradley (London School of Economics and Political Science) Cambridge ; New York ; Port Melbourne ; Delhi ; Singapore Cambridge University Press 2017 xiv, 335 Seiten Illustrationen txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Bayesian statistical decision theory Decision making Mathematical models Uncertainty Mathematical models Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf Rationalismus (DE-588)4129164-5 gnd rswk-swf Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Rationalismus (DE-588)4129164-5 s DE-604 Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 s Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030324458&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030324458&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Bradley, Richard 1964- Decision theory with a human face Bayesian statistical decision theory Decision making Mathematical models Uncertainty Mathematical models Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd Rationalismus (DE-588)4129164-5 gnd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)4129164-5 (DE-588)4144220-9 |
| title | Decision theory with a human face |
| title_auth | Decision theory with a human face |
| title_exact_search | Decision theory with a human face |
| title_full | Decision theory with a human face Richard Bradley (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| title_fullStr | Decision theory with a human face Richard Bradley (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision theory with a human face Richard Bradley (London School of Economics and Political Science) |
| title_short | Decision theory with a human face |
| title_sort | decision theory with a human face |
| topic | Bayesian statistical decision theory Decision making Mathematical models Uncertainty Mathematical models Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd Rationalismus (DE-588)4129164-5 gnd Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4144220-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Bayesian statistical decision theory Decision making Mathematical models Uncertainty Mathematical models Entscheidungstheorie Rationalismus Bayes-Entscheidungstheorie |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030324458&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=030324458&sequence=000003&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bradleyrichard decisiontheorywithahumanface |
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