Ecological forecasting:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Princeton ; Oxford
Princeton University Press
[2017]
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Physical Description: | x, 270 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9780691160573 |
Staff View
MARC
| LEADER | 00000nam a2200000 c 4500 | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| 001 | BV044323503 | ||
| 003 | DE-604 | ||
| 005 | 20230221 | ||
| 007 | t | ||
| 008 | 170523s2017 xxua||| |||| 00||| eng d | ||
| 010 | |a 016044327 | ||
| 020 | |a 9780691160573 |9 978-0-691-16057-3 | ||
| 035 | |a (OCoLC)992463515 | ||
| 035 | |a (DE-599)BVBBV044323503 | ||
| 040 | |a DE-604 |b ger |e rda | ||
| 041 | 0 | |a eng | |
| 044 | |a xxu |c US | ||
| 049 | |a DE-355 |a DE-29T |a DE-11 |a DE-703 | ||
| 050 | 0 | |a QH541.15.E265 | |
| 084 | |a WC 5300 |0 (DE-625)148110: |2 rvk | ||
| 084 | |a WI 1500 |0 (DE-625)148757: |2 rvk | ||
| 084 | |a WI 2050 |0 (DE-625)148762: |2 rvk | ||
| 084 | |a 577.01/12 |2 23 | ||
| 100 | 1 | |a Dietze, Michael C. |d 1976- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)1135919372 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Ecological forecasting |c Michael C. Dietze |
| 264 | 1 | |a Princeton ; Oxford |b Princeton University Press |c [2017] | |
| 300 | |a x, 270 Seiten |b Illustrationen, Diagramme | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Ökologie | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ecosystem health |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Ecology |x Forecasting | |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Ökosystem |0 (DE-588)4043216-6 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Prognose |0 (DE-588)4047390-9 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Änderung |0 (DE-588)4128256-5 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Datenanalyse |0 (DE-588)4123037-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
| 689 | 0 | 0 | |a Ökosystem |0 (DE-588)4043216-6 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 1 | |a Änderung |0 (DE-588)4128256-5 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 2 | |a Prognose |0 (DE-588)4047390-9 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | 3 | |a Datenanalyse |0 (DE-588)4123037-1 |D s |
| 689 | 0 | |5 DE-604 | |
| 776 | 0 | 8 | |i Erscheint auch als |n Online-Ausgabe |z 978-1-4008-8545-9 |
| 856 | 4 | 2 | |m Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment |q application/pdf |u http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029726926&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |3 Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| 999 | |a oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029726926 | ||
Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804177543630159872 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface ix
Acknowledgments xi
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Why Forecast? 1
1.2 The Informatics Challenge in Forecasting 3
1.3 The Model-Data Loop 4
1.4 Why Bayes? 6
1.5 Models as Scaffolds 7
1.6 Case Studies and Decision Support 8
1.7 Key Concepts 10
1.8 Hands-on Activities 10
2. From Models to Forecasts 11
2.1 The Traditional Modeler’s Toolbox 11
2.2 Example: The Logistic Growth Model 12
2.3 Adding Sources of Uncertainty 14
2.4 Thinking Probabilistically 23
2.5 Predictability 25
2.6 Key Concepts 33
2.7 Hands-on Activities 33
3. Data, Large and Small 34
3.1 The Data Cycle and Best Practices 34
3.2 Data Standards and Metadata 38
3.3 Handling Big Data 40
3.4 Key Concepts 43
3.5 Hands-on Activities 43 4 * * * * *
4. Scientific Workflows and the Informatics of Model-Data Fusion 44
4.1 Transparency, Accountability, and Repeatability 44
4.2 Workflows and Automation 45
4.3 Best Practices for Scientific Computing 48
4.4 Key Concepts 51
4.5 Hands-on Activities 52
vi Contents
5. introduction to Bayes 53
5.1 Confronting Models with Data 53
5.2 Probability 101 54
5.3 The Likelihood 56
5.4 Bayes5 Theorem 61
5.5 Prior Information 65
5.6 Numerical Methods for Bayes 68
5.7 Evaluating MCMC Output 71
5.8 Key Concepts 74
5.9 Hands-on Activities 75
6. Characterizing Uncertainty 76
6.1 Non-Gaussian Error 76
6.2 Heteroskedasticity 82
6.3 Observation Error 83
6.4 Missing Data and Inverse Modeling 87
6.5 Hierarchical Models and Process Error 90
6.6 Autocorrelation 94
6.7 Key Concepts 96
6.8 Hands-on Activities 97
7. Case Study: Biodiversity, Populations, and Endangered Species 98
7.1 Endangered Species 98
7.2 Biodiversity 104
7.3 Key Concepts 106
7.4 Hands-on Activities 107
8. Latent Variables and State-Space Models 108
8.1 Latent Variables 108
8.2 State Space 110
8.3 Hidden Markov Time-Series Model 111
8.4 Beyond Time 114
8.5 Key Concepts 116
8.6 Hands-on Activities 117
9. Fusing Data Sources 118
9.1 Meta-analysis 120
9.2 Combining Data: Practice, Pitfalls, and Opportunities 123
9.3 Combining Data and Models across Space and Time 127
9.4 Key Concepts 130
9.5 Hands-on Activities 130 10 * * *
10. Case Study: Natural Resources 131
10.1 Fisheries 131
10.2 Case Study: Baltic Salmon 133
10.3 Key Concepts 137
Contents vii
11. Propagating, Analyzing, and Reducing Uncertainty 138
11.1 Sensitivity Analysis 138
11.2 Uncertainty Propagation 145
11.3 Uncertainty Analysis 155
11.4 Tools for Model-Data Feedbacks 158
11.5 Key Concepts 162
11.6 Hands-on Activities 163
Appendix A Properties of Means and Variances 163
Appendix B Common Variance Approximations 164
12. Case Study: Carbon Cycle 165
12.1 Carbon Cycle Uncertainties 165
12.2 State of the Science 166
12.3 Case Study: Model-Data Feedbacks 171
12.4 Key Concepts 174
12.5 Hands-on Activities 174
13. Data Assimilation I: Analytical Methods 175
13.1 The Forecast Cycle 175
13.2 Kalman Filter 178
13.3 Extended Kalman Filter 183
13.4 Key Concepts 185
13.5 Hands-on Activities 186
14. Data Assimilation 2: Monte Carlo Methods 187
14.1 Ensemble Filters 187
14.2 Particle Filter 190
14.3 Model Averaging and Reversible Jump MCMC 194
14.4 Generalizing the Forecast Cycle 195
14.5 Key Concepts 197
14.6 Hands-on Activities 198
15. Epidemiology 199
15.1 Theory 200
15.2 Ecological Forecasting 201
15.3 Examples of Epidemiological Forecasting 202
15.4 Case Study: Influenza 205
15.5 Key Concepts 207 16 *
16. Assessing Model Performance 208
16.1 Visualization 208
16.2 Basic Model Diagnostics 211
16.3 Model Benchmarks 215
16.4 Data Mining the Residuals 217
16.5 Comparing Model Performance to Simple Statistics 217
16.6 Key Concepts 219
16.7 Hands-on Activities 219
Contents
vni
17. Projection and Decision Support 221
17.1 Projections, Predictions, and Forecasting 222
17.2 Decision Support 223
17.3 Key Concepts 235
17.4 Hands-on Activities 236 18
18. Final Thoughts 237
18.1 Lessons Learned 237
18.2 Future Directions 240
References 245
Index 261
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Dietze, Michael C. 1976- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)1135919372 |
| author_facet | Dietze, Michael C. 1976- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Dietze, Michael C. 1976- |
| author_variant | m c d mc mcd |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV044323503 |
| callnumber-first | Q - Science |
| callnumber-label | QH541 |
| callnumber-raw | QH541.15.E265 |
| callnumber-search | QH541.15.E265 |
| callnumber-sort | QH 3541.15 E265 |
| callnumber-subject | QH - Natural History and Biology |
| classification_rvk | WC 5300 WI 1500 WI 2050 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)992463515 (DE-599)BVBBV044323503 |
| discipline | Biologie |
| format | Book |
| fullrecord | <?xml version="1.0" encoding="UTF-8"?><collection xmlns="http://www.loc.gov/MARC21/slim"><record><leader>02027nam a2200517 c 4500</leader><controlfield tag="001">BV044323503</controlfield><controlfield tag="003">DE-604</controlfield><controlfield tag="005">20230221 </controlfield><controlfield tag="007">t</controlfield><controlfield tag="008">170523s2017 xxua||| |||| 00||| eng d</controlfield><datafield tag="010" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">016044327</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="020" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">9780691160573</subfield><subfield code="9">978-0-691-16057-3</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(OCoLC)992463515</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="035" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">(DE-599)BVBBV044323503</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="040" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-604</subfield><subfield code="b">ger</subfield><subfield code="e">rda</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="041" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">eng</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="044" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">xxu</subfield><subfield code="c">US</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="049" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">DE-355</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-29T</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-11</subfield><subfield code="a">DE-703</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="050" ind1=" " ind2="0"><subfield code="a">QH541.15.E265</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">WC 5300</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)148110:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">WI 1500</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)148757:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">WI 2050</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-625)148762:</subfield><subfield code="2">rvk</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="084" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">577.01/12</subfield><subfield code="2">23</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="100" ind1="1" ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Dietze, Michael C.</subfield><subfield code="d">1976-</subfield><subfield code="e">Verfasser</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)1135919372</subfield><subfield code="4">aut</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="245" ind1="1" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Ecological forecasting</subfield><subfield code="c">Michael C. Dietze</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="264" ind1=" " ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Princeton ; Oxford</subfield><subfield code="b">Princeton University Press</subfield><subfield code="c">[2017]</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="300" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">x, 270 Seiten</subfield><subfield code="b">Illustrationen, Diagramme</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="336" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">txt</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacontent</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="337" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">n</subfield><subfield code="2">rdamedia</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="338" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="b">nc</subfield><subfield code="2">rdacarrier</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="500" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">Includes bibliographical references and index</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Ökologie</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Ecosystem health</subfield><subfield code="x">Forecasting</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1=" " ind2="4"><subfield code="a">Ecology</subfield><subfield code="x">Forecasting</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Ökosystem</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4043216-6</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Prognose</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4047390-9</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Änderung</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4128256-5</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="650" ind1="0" ind2="7"><subfield code="a">Datenanalyse</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4123037-1</subfield><subfield code="2">gnd</subfield><subfield code="9">rswk-swf</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="0"><subfield code="a">Ökosystem</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4043216-6</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="1"><subfield code="a">Änderung</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4128256-5</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="2"><subfield code="a">Prognose</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4047390-9</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2="3"><subfield code="a">Datenanalyse</subfield><subfield code="0">(DE-588)4123037-1</subfield><subfield code="D">s</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="689" ind1="0" ind2=" "><subfield code="5">DE-604</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="776" ind1="0" ind2="8"><subfield code="i">Erscheint auch als</subfield><subfield code="n">Online-Ausgabe</subfield><subfield code="z">978-1-4008-8545-9</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="856" ind1="4" ind2="2"><subfield code="m">Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment</subfield><subfield code="q">application/pdf</subfield><subfield code="u">http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029726926&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA</subfield><subfield code="3">Inhaltsverzeichnis</subfield></datafield><datafield tag="999" ind1=" " ind2=" "><subfield code="a">oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029726926</subfield></datafield></record></collection> |
| id | DE-604.BV044323503 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:49:45Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780691160573 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 016044327 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-029726926 |
| oclc_num | 992463515 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-29T DE-11 DE-703 |
| owner_facet | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-29T DE-11 DE-703 |
| physical | x, 270 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateSearch | 2017 |
| publishDateSort | 2017 |
| publisher | Princeton University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Dietze, Michael C. 1976- Verfasser (DE-588)1135919372 aut Ecological forecasting Michael C. Dietze Princeton ; Oxford Princeton University Press [2017] x, 270 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Ökologie Ecosystem health Forecasting Ecology Forecasting Ökosystem (DE-588)4043216-6 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Änderung (DE-588)4128256-5 gnd rswk-swf Datenanalyse (DE-588)4123037-1 gnd rswk-swf Ökosystem (DE-588)4043216-6 s Änderung (DE-588)4128256-5 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Datenanalyse (DE-588)4123037-1 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-4008-8545-9 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029726926&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Dietze, Michael C. 1976- Ecological forecasting Ökologie Ecosystem health Forecasting Ecology Forecasting Ökosystem (DE-588)4043216-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Änderung (DE-588)4128256-5 gnd Datenanalyse (DE-588)4123037-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4043216-6 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4128256-5 (DE-588)4123037-1 |
| title | Ecological forecasting |
| title_auth | Ecological forecasting |
| title_exact_search | Ecological forecasting |
| title_full | Ecological forecasting Michael C. Dietze |
| title_fullStr | Ecological forecasting Michael C. Dietze |
| title_full_unstemmed | Ecological forecasting Michael C. Dietze |
| title_short | Ecological forecasting |
| title_sort | ecological forecasting |
| topic | Ökologie Ecosystem health Forecasting Ecology Forecasting Ökosystem (DE-588)4043216-6 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Änderung (DE-588)4128256-5 gnd Datenanalyse (DE-588)4123037-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Ökologie Ecosystem health Forecasting Ecology Forecasting Ökosystem Prognose Änderung Datenanalyse |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029726926&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT dietzemichaelc ecologicalforecasting |