Counterfactuals and probability:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Oxford, United Kingdom
Oxford University Press
2017
|
| Edition: | First edition |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | x, 236 Seiten |
| ISBN: | 019878595X 9780198785958 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface ix
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Uncertainty about Counterfactuals 2
1.2 Where Uncertainty Shows Up 5
1.3 The Debate about Indicative Conditionals 6
1.4 Counterfactuals 11
1.5 Standard Semantics 13
1.6 Systematizing the Data 16
1.7 Identifying the Challenge 19
1.8 Non-Standard Explanations 21
1.9 Modifying the Semantics 25
1.10 Overview 27
2. The Problem of Evaluating Counterfactuals 29
2.1 Probability 30
2.2 Prior Epistemic Probabilities 39
2.3 Hypothetical Epistemic Probabilities 45
2.4 Prior Propensities 48
2.4.1 Morgenbesser Cases 51
2.4.2 Counterfactuals and Determinism 54
2.4.3 Counterlegals 56
2.4.4 Probabilistic Modus Ponens 57
2.5 Conclusion 58
3. Counterfactual Chance 60
3.1 The Selection Function 60
3.2 Relevance and Chance 63
3.3 A Principal Principle for Counterfactuals 70
3.4 Admissible Evidence 72
3.5 Comparison with Skyrms 78
3.6 Imaging 79
3.7 Generalized Imaging 82
3.8 Imaging and the PP-Constraint 84
3.9 Some Methodological Considerations 88
3.10 Conclusion 92
4. A Puzzle About Counterfactuals 95
4.1 The Problem for Standard Semantics 96
4.2 The Puzzle 102
4.3 A Means of Escape 107
Vlll CONTENTS
4.4 Comparison with Indicative Conditionals 110
4.5 Conclusion 114
5. Restriction and Modification 116
5.1 The Restrictor View 117
5.2 Simple Conditionals 120
5.3 Counterfactual Tf’-Clauses as Restrictors 123
5.4 Counterfactual Tf’-Clauses as Modifiers 126
5.5 Variants of the View 131
5.6 The Lack of Independent Evidence 134
5.7 The Problem of Embeddings 138
5.8 Conclusion 144
6. Counterfactuals and Arbitrariness 146
6.1 A Proposal 147
6.L1 The Epsilon-Operator 149
6.1.2 Arbitrary Truth Conditions 153
6.1.3 The Logic of Counterfactuals 155
6.1.4 The Metaphysics of Arbitrariness 162
6.1.5 Comparisons 167
6.2 The Evaluation of Counterfactuals 168
6.2.1 Uniformity Reconsidered 170
6.2.2 Modelling the Epistemic Space 173
6.3 Knowability and Assertability 176
6.4 Revisiting the Puzzle 181
6.5 Conclusion 182
7. Applications 183
7.1 Counterfactuals with a True Antecedent 183
7.2 Duality 188
7.3 Conditional Excluded Middle 194
7.4 The Limit Assumption 197
8. Triviality 200
8.1 Lewis on Imaging 201
8.2 Leitgebs Observation 203
8.3 Williams’s Extension of Lewis’s Triviality Result 205
8.4 Conclusion 212
9. Concluding Remarks 215
9.1 Error Theories 216
9.2 Pragmatic Explanations 219
9.3 Unifying the Theory? 220
9.4 Conclusion 223
Bibliography 225
Index 235
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| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:46:42Z |
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| isbn | 019878595X 9780198785958 |
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| spelling | Schulz, Moritz 1979- Verfasser (DE-588)1126599522 aut Counterfactuals and probability Moritz Schulz First edition Oxford, United Kingdom Oxford University Press 2017 x, 236 Seiten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Dissertation Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin 2011 die Daten zur Dissertation basieren auf den Angaben des Verfassers Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd rswk-swf Kontrafaktisches Denken (DE-588)4577003-7 gnd rswk-swf Counterfactuals (Logic) Probabilities (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Kontrafaktisches Denken (DE-588)4577003-7 s Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 s DE-604 Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029616621&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Schulz, Moritz 1979- Counterfactuals and probability Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd Kontrafaktisches Denken (DE-588)4577003-7 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4137007-7 (DE-588)4577003-7 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Counterfactuals and probability |
| title_auth | Counterfactuals and probability |
| title_exact_search | Counterfactuals and probability |
| title_full | Counterfactuals and probability Moritz Schulz |
| title_fullStr | Counterfactuals and probability Moritz Schulz |
| title_full_unstemmed | Counterfactuals and probability Moritz Schulz |
| title_short | Counterfactuals and probability |
| title_sort | counterfactuals and probability |
| topic | Wahrscheinlichkeit (DE-588)4137007-7 gnd Kontrafaktisches Denken (DE-588)4577003-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wahrscheinlichkeit Kontrafaktisches Denken Hochschulschrift |
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