Urban dynamics and simulation models:
Saved in:
| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cham
Springer
[2017]
|
| Series: | Lecture notes in morphogenesis
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Physical Description: | xviii, 123 Seiten Diagramme, Karten |
| ISBN: | 9783319464954 |
| ISSN: | 2195-1934 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
R
1 Is Urban Future Predictable?............................................. 1
1.1 Emergence......................................................... 4
1.2 Generic Dynamic Features of Systems of Cities..................... 6
1.2.1 The Hierarchical Differentiation of City Sizes......... 6
1.2.2 The Meta-Stability of Urban Hierarchies.................... 7
1.2.3 A Regular Quasi-stochastic Process of Growth........... 8
1.2.4 Hierarchical Diffusion of Innovation Waves and
Functional Specializations................................. 9
1.3 Variety in the Evolution of Urban Systems........................ 10
1.3.1 A Simplified Typology of Systems of Cities............. 12
1.3.2 Systematic Variations in the Rhythm
of Urban Growth........................................... 13
1.4 Urban Future: Models and Scenarios............................... 14
1.4.1 Challenges in Building Scenarios About Urban
Evolution................................................. 14
1.4.2 Challenges in Model Validation............................ 16
References........................................................... 17
2 The SimpopLocal Model................................................... 21
2.1 Introduction................................................... 21
2.2 Purpose of SimpopLocal........................................... 21
2.3 Entities, State Variables and Scales............................. 22
2.4 Processes Overview and Scheduling................................ 23
2.4.1 Population Growth Mechanism............................... 23
2.4.2 Apply Innovation Mechanism................................ 24
2.4.3 Create and Diffuse Innovation Mechanisms.................. 25
2.5 Initial Conditions............................................... 28
2.6 Input............................................................ 29
2.7 Running the Model for Parameter Estimates: Calibration........... 31
ix
x Contents
2.8 Simulation Results and Return on Observations................... 32
References............................................................ 34
3 Evaluation of the SimpopLocal Model.................................... 37
3.1 Quantitative Evaluation......................................... 37
3.1.1 Stopping Criterion....................................... 37
3.1.2 Expectations............................................. 38
3.1.3 Handling the Stochasticity............................... 39
3.2 Automated Calibration........................................... 40
3.2.1 Optimization Heuristic................................... 40
3.2.2 Adaptation of NSGA2 to a Stochastic Model............. 42
3.2.3 Experimental Setup....................................... 45
3.2.4 Results.................................................. 46
3.3 Calibration Profiles............................................ 47
3.3.1 Algorithm................................................ 48
3.3.2 Guide of Interpretation.................................. 51
3.3.3 Result Analysis.......................................... 52
3.4 Conclusion...................................................... 55
References............................................................ 55
4 An Incremental Multi-Modelling Method to Simulate Systems
of Cities’ Evolution.................................................. 57
4.1 Introduction.................................................... 57
4.2 Methodological and Technical Framework
for Multi-modelling Systems of Cities........................... 58
4.2.1 Complementary and Competing Theories..................... 58
4.2.2 A Methodology for Implementing Multi-models.............. 59
4.2.3 Exploiting the Results of a Family of Models............. 60
4.3 A Family of Models of (Post-) Soviet Cities: MARIUS............. 63
4.3.1 Ordering Possible Causes of Evolution
from the Most Generic to the Most Specific............... 63
4.3.2 Implementing Modular Mechanisms.......................... 65
4.4 Geographical Insights on (Post-) Soviet City Growth
from Multi-modelling............................................ 67
4.4.1 Mechanisms’ Performance.................................. 68
4.4.2 Parameter Values......................................... 69
4.4.3 Residual Trajectories.................................... 71
4.5 VARIUS: A Visual Aid to Model Composition
and Interpretation.............................................. 73
4.5.1 Building the Model Online.............................. 74
4.5.2 Running the Model Online................................. 76
4.5.3 Analyzing Results Online or ‘How Close Are We?’........ 76
4.6 Conclusion...................................................... 77
References............................................................ 78
Contents xi
5 Using Models to Explore Possible Futures
(Contingency and Complexity).......................................... 81
5.1 Models as Artefacts of Historically Contingent Complex
Systems......................................................... 82
5.2 A Method to Foster Diversity in a Model Outcomes................ 84
5.2.1 The Pattern Space Exploration Algorithm:
Principles and Implementation............................ 84
5.2.2 Evolutionary Methods for Parameter Space
Exploration.............................................. 85
5.2.3 Novelty Search........................................ 86
5.2.4 PSE Algorithm............................................ 86
5.3 Application to Systems of Cities................................ 88
5.3.1 Order Parameters from Empirical Observation
of Urban Systems Evolution Over Time.................. 89
5.3.2 Parameter Space and Pattern Space........................ 90
5.3.3 Results.................................................. 91
5.4 Conclusion: Acknowledging Historical Contingency
for the Prediction of Potential Urban Futures................... 93
References. .......................................................... 94
6 An Innovative and Open Toolbox........................................ 97
6.1 Introduction.................................................... 97
6.2 The Ant Model................................................... 98
6.3 Embed the Model in OpenMOLE. . . ............................ 99
6.4 Do Repetitions................................................. 102
6.5 Automatic Workload Distribution................................ 103
6.6 Expose the Variability of the Model............................ 103
6.7 Aggregate the Results.......................................... 104
6.8 Explore the Space of Parameters................................ 106
6.9 Optimization with Genetic Algorithms........................... 110
6.10 Sensitivity Analysis with the Profiles Method.................. 112
6.11 Validation, Testing Output Diversity........................... 115
References......................................................... 117
Erratum to: Urban Dynamics and Simulation Models.......................... El
Knowledge Accelerator9 in Geography and Social Sciences:
Further and Faster, but Also Deeper and Wider............................ 119
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Urban Dynamics and Simulation Models
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This monograph presents urban simulation methods that help in better understanding
urban dynamics- Over historical times, cities have progressively absorbed a larger
part of human population and will concentrate three quarters of humankind before
the end of the century. This “urban transition” that has totally transformed the way
we inhabit the planet is globally understood in its socio-economic rationales but is
less frequently questioned as a spatio-temporal process. However, the cities, because
they are intrinsically linked in a game of competition for resources and development,
self organize in “systems of cities” where their future becomes more and more
interdependent. The high frequency and intensity of interactions between cities explain
that urban systems all over the world exhibit large similarities in their hierarchical and
functional structure and rather regular dynamics. They are complex systems whose
emergence, structure and further evolution are widely governed by the multiple kinds
of interaction that link the various actors and institutions investing in cities their
efforts, capital, knowledge and intelligence. Simulation models that reconstruct this
dynamics may help in better understanding it and exploring future plausible evolutions
of urban systems. This would provide better insight about how societies can manage
the ecological transition at local, regional and global scales. The author has developed
a series of instruments that greatly improve the techniques of validation for such
models of social sciences that can be submitted to many applications in a variety of
geographical situations. Examples are giyen for several BRICS countries, Europe and
United States. The target audience primarily comprises research experts in the field of
urban dynamics, but the book may also be beneficial for graduate students.
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ISBN 978-3-319-46495-4
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► spnnger.com
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Pumain, Denise 1946- Reuillon, Romain |
| author_GND | (DE-588)141208376 |
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| bvnumber | BV044037393 |
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| classification_tum | DAT 780f RPL 611f |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-2-EES)978-3-319-46497-8 (OCoLC)975072885 (DE-599)BVBBV044037393 |
| discipline | Informatik Raumplanung Geographie |
| format | Book |
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| id | DE-604.BV044037393 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:41:50Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783319464954 |
| issn | 2195-1934 |
| language | English |
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| physical | xviii, 123 Seiten Diagramme, Karten |
| publishDate | 2017 |
| publishDateSearch | 2017 |
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| publisher | Springer |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Lecture notes in morphogenesis |
| spelling | Pumain, Denise 1946- Verfasser (DE-588)141208376 aut Urban dynamics and simulation models Denise Pumain, Romain Reuillon Cham Springer [2017] xviii, 123 Seiten Diagramme, Karten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Lecture notes in morphogenesis 2195-1934 Stadtplanung (DE-588)4056754-0 gnd rswk-swf Stadtentwicklung (DE-588)4056730-8 gnd rswk-swf Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd rswk-swf Stadtplanung (DE-588)4056754-0 s Stadtentwicklung (DE-588)4056730-8 s Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 s b DE-604 Reuillon, Romain Verfasser aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-3-319-46497-8 Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029444505&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=029444505&sequence=000002&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
| spellingShingle | Pumain, Denise 1946- Reuillon, Romain Urban dynamics and simulation models Stadtplanung (DE-588)4056754-0 gnd Stadtentwicklung (DE-588)4056730-8 gnd Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4056754-0 (DE-588)4056730-8 (DE-588)4055072-2 |
| title | Urban dynamics and simulation models |
| title_auth | Urban dynamics and simulation models |
| title_exact_search | Urban dynamics and simulation models |
| title_full | Urban dynamics and simulation models Denise Pumain, Romain Reuillon |
| title_fullStr | Urban dynamics and simulation models Denise Pumain, Romain Reuillon |
| title_full_unstemmed | Urban dynamics and simulation models Denise Pumain, Romain Reuillon |
| title_short | Urban dynamics and simulation models |
| title_sort | urban dynamics and simulation models |
| topic | Stadtplanung (DE-588)4056754-0 gnd Stadtentwicklung (DE-588)4056730-8 gnd Simulation (DE-588)4055072-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Stadtplanung Stadtentwicklung Simulation |
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