Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability:
There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications...
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| Other Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge
Cambridge University Press
2008
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | BSB01 UBG01 Volltext |
| Summary: | There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes |
| Item Description: | Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015) |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (xvi, 282 pages) |
| ISBN: | 9780511493393 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/CBO9780511493393 |
Staff View
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| 505 | 8 | |a Introduction / Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila -- Part I: Uncertain demographics -- Changing views of future demographic trends / Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen and Juha M. Alho -- Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty / Juha M. Alho, Harri Cruijsen and Nico Keilman -- Comment: The UPE forecasts : strengths, innovations, developments / Shripad Tuljapurkar -- Part II: Measuring sustainability in a stochastic environment -- Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty: comparisons across the European Union / Martin Weale -- Demographic uncertainty and pension projections / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Demographic uncertainty and health care expenditure / Namkee Ahn -- Comment: Assessing the uncertainty in long-term fiscal projections / Pablo Antolin -- Part III: Enhancing sustainability -- Evaluating pension reforms in the German context / Hans Fehr and Christian Habermann -- Longevity adjustment of pension benefits / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Ageing, demographic uncertainty and optimal fiscal policy / Alex Armstrong [and others] -- Comment: Computable equilibrium models in policy analysis: future directions / D. Peter Broer -- Part IV: Extensions -- Macro-economic consequences of demographic uncertainty in world regions / Vladimir Borgy and Juha M. Alho -- Informational assumptions, aggregate mortality risk and life-cycle saving / Juha M. Alho and Niku Määttänen -- Uncertain demographics, longevity adjustment of the retirement age and intergenerational risk-sharing / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Ole Hagen Jørgensen -- A general equilibrium analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk / Justin Van De Ven and Martin Weale -- Comment: The economics of demographic uncertainty / Martin Flodén | |
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| author2 | Alho, Juha Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard 1959- Lassila, Jukka |
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| author_facet | Alho, Juha Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard 1959- Lassila, Jukka |
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| contents | Introduction / Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila -- Part I: Uncertain demographics -- Changing views of future demographic trends / Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen and Juha M. Alho -- Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty / Juha M. Alho, Harri Cruijsen and Nico Keilman -- Comment: The UPE forecasts : strengths, innovations, developments / Shripad Tuljapurkar -- Part II: Measuring sustainability in a stochastic environment -- Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty: comparisons across the European Union / Martin Weale -- Demographic uncertainty and pension projections / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Demographic uncertainty and health care expenditure / Namkee Ahn -- Comment: Assessing the uncertainty in long-term fiscal projections / Pablo Antolin -- Part III: Enhancing sustainability -- Evaluating pension reforms in the German context / Hans Fehr and Christian Habermann -- Longevity adjustment of pension benefits / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Ageing, demographic uncertainty and optimal fiscal policy / Alex Armstrong [and others] -- Comment: Computable equilibrium models in policy analysis: future directions / D. Peter Broer -- Part IV: Extensions -- Macro-economic consequences of demographic uncertainty in world regions / Vladimir Borgy and Juha M. Alho -- Informational assumptions, aggregate mortality risk and life-cycle saving / Juha M. Alho and Niku Määttänen -- Uncertain demographics, longevity adjustment of the retirement age and intergenerational risk-sharing / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Ole Hagen Jørgensen -- A general equilibrium analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk / Justin Van De Ven and Martin Weale -- Comment: The economics of demographic uncertainty / Martin Flodén |
| ctrlnum | (ZDB-20-CBO)CR9780511493393 (OCoLC)967487140 (DE-599)BVBBV043926720 |
| dewey-full | 336.3094 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 336 - Public finance |
| dewey-raw | 336.3094 |
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| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1017/CBO9780511493393 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| geographic_facet | Europa Europe / Population / Mathematical models |
| id | DE-604.BV043926720 |
| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:38:48Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780511493393 |
| language | English |
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| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability edited by Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila Uncertain Demographics & Fiscal Sustainability Cambridge Cambridge University Press 2008 1 online resource (xvi, 282 pages) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015) Introduction / Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila -- Part I: Uncertain demographics -- Changing views of future demographic trends / Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen and Juha M. Alho -- Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty / Juha M. Alho, Harri Cruijsen and Nico Keilman -- Comment: The UPE forecasts : strengths, innovations, developments / Shripad Tuljapurkar -- Part II: Measuring sustainability in a stochastic environment -- Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty: comparisons across the European Union / Martin Weale -- Demographic uncertainty and pension projections / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Demographic uncertainty and health care expenditure / Namkee Ahn -- Comment: Assessing the uncertainty in long-term fiscal projections / Pablo Antolin -- Part III: Enhancing sustainability -- Evaluating pension reforms in the German context / Hans Fehr and Christian Habermann -- Longevity adjustment of pension benefits / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Ageing, demographic uncertainty and optimal fiscal policy / Alex Armstrong [and others] -- Comment: Computable equilibrium models in policy analysis: future directions / D. Peter Broer -- Part IV: Extensions -- Macro-economic consequences of demographic uncertainty in world regions / Vladimir Borgy and Juha M. Alho -- Informational assumptions, aggregate mortality risk and life-cycle saving / Juha M. Alho and Niku Määttänen -- Uncertain demographics, longevity adjustment of the retirement age and intergenerational risk-sharing / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Ole Hagen Jørgensen -- A general equilibrium analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk / Justin Van De Ven and Martin Weale -- Comment: The economics of demographic uncertainty / Martin Flodén There is widespread acceptance that much of the developed world faces a potential pensions and welfare crisis as a result of declining birth rates and an ageing population. However, there is considerable uncertainty about the specifics of demographic forecasting and this has significant implications for public finances. Uncertain Demographics and Fiscal Sustainability addresses the economic consequences of uncertainty and, with particular reference to European economies, explores the impact of demographic risks on public finances, including pension systems, health care and old-age care expenditures. Covering a spectrum of theoretical and empirical approaches, different types of computational models are used to demonstrate not only the magnitudes of the uncertainties involved but also how these can be addressed through policy initiatives. The book is divided into four parts covering demographic, measurement, policy and methodological issues. Each part is followed by a discussion essay that draws out key elements and identifies common themes Mathematisches Modell Ökonometrisches Modell Population forecasting / Europe / Statistical methods Demography / Europe / Mathematical models Population forecasting / Europe / Methodology Fiscal policy / Europe / Econometric models Human services / Finance / Forecasting Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 gnd rswk-swf Europa Europe / Population / Mathematical models Europa (DE-588)4015701-5 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content Europa (DE-588)4015701-5 g Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 s Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 s 2\p DE-604 Alho, Juha edt Jensen, Svend E. Hougaard 1959- edt Lassila, Jukka edt Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-0-521-87740-4 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-1-107-40505-9 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511493393 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability Introduction / Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila -- Part I: Uncertain demographics -- Changing views of future demographic trends / Nico Keilman, Harri Cruijsen and Juha M. Alho -- Empirically based specification of forecast uncertainty / Juha M. Alho, Harri Cruijsen and Nico Keilman -- Comment: The UPE forecasts : strengths, innovations, developments / Shripad Tuljapurkar -- Part II: Measuring sustainability in a stochastic environment -- Fiscal implications of demographic uncertainty: comparisons across the European Union / Martin Weale -- Demographic uncertainty and pension projections / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Demographic uncertainty and health care expenditure / Namkee Ahn -- Comment: Assessing the uncertainty in long-term fiscal projections / Pablo Antolin -- Part III: Enhancing sustainability -- Evaluating pension reforms in the German context / Hans Fehr and Christian Habermann -- Longevity adjustment of pension benefits / Jukka Lassila and Tarmo Valkonen -- Ageing, demographic uncertainty and optimal fiscal policy / Alex Armstrong [and others] -- Comment: Computable equilibrium models in policy analysis: future directions / D. Peter Broer -- Part IV: Extensions -- Macro-economic consequences of demographic uncertainty in world regions / Vladimir Borgy and Juha M. Alho -- Informational assumptions, aggregate mortality risk and life-cycle saving / Juha M. Alho and Niku Määttänen -- Uncertain demographics, longevity adjustment of the retirement age and intergenerational risk-sharing / Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Ole Hagen Jørgensen -- A general equilibrium analysis of annuity rates in the presence of aggregate mortality risk / Justin Van De Ven and Martin Weale -- Comment: The economics of demographic uncertainty / Martin Flodén Mathematisches Modell Ökonometrisches Modell Population forecasting / Europe / Statistical methods Demography / Europe / Mathematical models Population forecasting / Europe / Methodology Fiscal policy / Europe / Econometric models Human services / Finance / Forecasting Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4326464-5 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4017214-4 (DE-588)4015701-5 (DE-588)4143413-4 |
| title | Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability |
| title_alt | Uncertain Demographics & Fiscal Sustainability |
| title_auth | Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability |
| title_exact_search | Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability |
| title_full | Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability edited by Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila |
| title_fullStr | Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability edited by Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila |
| title_full_unstemmed | Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability edited by Juha M. Alho, Svend E. Hougaard Jensen and Jukka Lassila |
| title_short | Uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability |
| title_sort | uncertain demographics and fiscal sustainability |
| topic | Mathematisches Modell Ökonometrisches Modell Population forecasting / Europe / Statistical methods Demography / Europe / Mathematical models Population forecasting / Europe / Methodology Fiscal policy / Europe / Econometric models Human services / Finance / Forecasting Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Nachhaltigkeit (DE-588)4326464-5 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Finanzwirtschaft (DE-588)4017214-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Mathematisches Modell Ökonometrisches Modell Population forecasting / Europe / Statistical methods Demography / Europe / Mathematical models Population forecasting / Europe / Methodology Fiscal policy / Europe / Econometric models Human services / Finance / Forecasting Bevölkerungsentwicklung Nachhaltigkeit Prognose Finanzwirtschaft Europa Europe / Population / Mathematical models Aufsatzsammlung |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511493393 |
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