Leading economic indicators: new approaches and forecasting records
Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive an...
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| Other Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge
Cambridge University Press
1991
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | DE-12 DE-473 Volltext |
| Summary: | Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators |
| Item Description: | Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015) |
| Physical Description: | 1 online resource (xiv, 464 pages) |
| ISBN: | 9781139173735 |
| DOI: | 10.1017/CBO9781139173735 |
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| 505 | 8 | |a Toward a theory of leading indicators / Frank De Leeuw -- A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators / Salih N. Neftci -- A probability model of the coincident economic indicators / James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson -- An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signaling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators / Michael P. Niemira -- On predicting the stage of the business cycle / Roy H. Webb -- Bayesian methods for forecasting turning points in economic time-series : sensitivity of forecasts to asymmetry of loss structures / Arnold Zellner and Chansik Hong -- New developments in leading indicators / Geoffrey H. Moore | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Leading indicators of inflation / Howard L. Roth -- Commodity prices as a leading indicator of inflation / James M. Boughton and William H. Branson -- A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates / Susmita Dasgupta and Kajal Lahiri -- Using composite leading indicators of consumption to forecast sales and to signal turning points in the stock market / Michael P. Niemira -- Economic indicators for Australia's service sector / Ernst A. Boehm -- Purchasing management survey data : their value as leading indicators / Philip A. Klein and Geoffrey H. Moore -- An agenda for inventories input to the leading composite index / Feliks Tamm | |
| 505 | 8 | |a Forecasting cyclical turning points : the record in the past three recessions / Stephen K. McNees -- Turning point predictions, errors, and forecasting procedures / H.O. Stekler -- Forecasting peaks and troughs in the business cycle : on the choice and use of appropriate leading indicator series / Stephen J. Silver -- Using a consensus of leading economic indicators to find the right ball park for real GNP forecasts / Edward F. Renshaw -- Some Australian experience with leading economic indicators / Allan P. Layton -- Turning point prediction with the composite leading index : an ex ante analysis / Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch -- Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law / Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore | |
| 520 | |a Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators | ||
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| contents | Toward a theory of leading indicators / Frank De Leeuw -- A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators / Salih N. Neftci -- A probability model of the coincident economic indicators / James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson -- An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signaling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators / Michael P. Niemira -- On predicting the stage of the business cycle / Roy H. Webb -- Bayesian methods for forecasting turning points in economic time-series : sensitivity of forecasts to asymmetry of loss structures / Arnold Zellner and Chansik Hong -- New developments in leading indicators / Geoffrey H. Moore Leading indicators of inflation / Howard L. Roth -- Commodity prices as a leading indicator of inflation / James M. Boughton and William H. Branson -- A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates / Susmita Dasgupta and Kajal Lahiri -- Using composite leading indicators of consumption to forecast sales and to signal turning points in the stock market / Michael P. Niemira -- Economic indicators for Australia's service sector / Ernst A. Boehm -- Purchasing management survey data : their value as leading indicators / Philip A. Klein and Geoffrey H. Moore -- An agenda for inventories input to the leading composite index / Feliks Tamm Forecasting cyclical turning points : the record in the past three recessions / Stephen K. McNees -- Turning point predictions, errors, and forecasting procedures / H.O. Stekler -- Forecasting peaks and troughs in the business cycle : on the choice and use of appropriate leading indicator series / Stephen J. Silver -- Using a consensus of leading economic indicators to find the right ball park for real GNP forecasts / Edward F. Renshaw -- Some Australian experience with leading economic indicators / Allan P. Layton -- Turning point prediction with the composite leading index : an ex ante analysis / Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch -- Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law / Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore |
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| dewey-sort | 3330 11 212 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| doi_str_mv | 10.1017/CBO9781139173735 |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| publisher | Cambridge University Press |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Leading economic indicators new approaches and forecasting records edited by Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore Cambridge Cambridge University Press 1991 1 online resource (xiv, 464 pages) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Title from publisher's bibliographic system (viewed on 05 Oct 2015) Toward a theory of leading indicators / Frank De Leeuw -- A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators / Salih N. Neftci -- A probability model of the coincident economic indicators / James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson -- An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signaling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators / Michael P. Niemira -- On predicting the stage of the business cycle / Roy H. Webb -- Bayesian methods for forecasting turning points in economic time-series : sensitivity of forecasts to asymmetry of loss structures / Arnold Zellner and Chansik Hong -- New developments in leading indicators / Geoffrey H. Moore Leading indicators of inflation / Howard L. Roth -- Commodity prices as a leading indicator of inflation / James M. Boughton and William H. Branson -- A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates / Susmita Dasgupta and Kajal Lahiri -- Using composite leading indicators of consumption to forecast sales and to signal turning points in the stock market / Michael P. Niemira -- Economic indicators for Australia's service sector / Ernst A. Boehm -- Purchasing management survey data : their value as leading indicators / Philip A. Klein and Geoffrey H. Moore -- An agenda for inventories input to the leading composite index / Feliks Tamm Forecasting cyclical turning points : the record in the past three recessions / Stephen K. McNees -- Turning point predictions, errors, and forecasting procedures / H.O. Stekler -- Forecasting peaks and troughs in the business cycle : on the choice and use of appropriate leading indicator series / Stephen J. Silver -- Using a consensus of leading economic indicators to find the right ball park for real GNP forecasts / Edward F. Renshaw -- Some Australian experience with leading economic indicators / Allan P. Layton -- Turning point prediction with the composite leading index : an ex ante analysis / Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch -- Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law / Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore Developed fifty years ago by the National Bureau of Economic Research, the analytic methods of business cycles and economic indicators enable economists to forecast economic trends by examining the repetitive sequences that occur in business cycles. The methodology has proven to be an inexpensive and useful tool that is now used extensively throughout the world. In recent years, however, significant new developments have emerged in the field of business cycles and economic indicators. This volume contains twenty-two articles by international experts who are working with new and innovative approaches to indicator research. They cover advances in three broad areas of research: the use of new developments in economic theory and time-series analysis to rationalise existing systems of indicators; more appropriate methods to evaluate the forecasting records of leading indicators, particularly of turning point probability; and the development of new indicators Business cycles Economic forecasting Economic indicators Konjunkturindikator (DE-588)4139118-4 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftsindikator (DE-588)4249243-9 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)4143413-4 Aufsatzsammlung gnd-content 2\p (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift 1987 Albany NY gnd-content Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s 3\p DE-604 Wirtschaftsindikator (DE-588)4249243-9 s Konjunkturindikator (DE-588)4139118-4 s 4\p DE-604 Lahiri, Kajal 1947- (DE-588)13377080X edt Moore, Geoffrey Hoyt 1914-2000 (DE-588)118947087 edt Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-0-521-37155-1 Erscheint auch als Druckausgabe 978-0-521-43858-2 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139173735 Verlag URL des Erstveröffentlichers Volltext 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 3\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 4\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Leading economic indicators new approaches and forecasting records Toward a theory of leading indicators / Frank De Leeuw -- A time-series framework for the study of leading indicators / Salih N. Neftci -- A probability model of the coincident economic indicators / James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson -- An international application of Neftci's probability approach for signaling growth recessions and recoveries using turning point indicators / Michael P. Niemira -- On predicting the stage of the business cycle / Roy H. Webb -- Bayesian methods for forecasting turning points in economic time-series : sensitivity of forecasts to asymmetry of loss structures / Arnold Zellner and Chansik Hong -- New developments in leading indicators / Geoffrey H. Moore Leading indicators of inflation / Howard L. Roth -- Commodity prices as a leading indicator of inflation / James M. Boughton and William H. Branson -- A leading indicator of inflation based on interest rates / Susmita Dasgupta and Kajal Lahiri -- Using composite leading indicators of consumption to forecast sales and to signal turning points in the stock market / Michael P. Niemira -- Economic indicators for Australia's service sector / Ernst A. Boehm -- Purchasing management survey data : their value as leading indicators / Philip A. Klein and Geoffrey H. Moore -- An agenda for inventories input to the leading composite index / Feliks Tamm Forecasting cyclical turning points : the record in the past three recessions / Stephen K. McNees -- Turning point predictions, errors, and forecasting procedures / H.O. Stekler -- Forecasting peaks and troughs in the business cycle : on the choice and use of appropriate leading indicator series / Stephen J. Silver -- Using a consensus of leading economic indicators to find the right ball park for real GNP forecasts / Edward F. Renshaw -- Some Australian experience with leading economic indicators / Allan P. Layton -- Turning point prediction with the composite leading index : an ex ante analysis / Francis X. Diebold and Glenn D. Rudebusch -- Forecasting recessions under the Gramm-Rudman-Hollings law / Victor Zarnowitz and Geoffrey H. Moore Business cycles Economic forecasting Economic indicators Konjunkturindikator (DE-588)4139118-4 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Wirtschaftsindikator (DE-588)4249243-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4139118-4 (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4249243-9 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4143413-4 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Leading economic indicators new approaches and forecasting records |
| title_auth | Leading economic indicators new approaches and forecasting records |
| title_exact_search | Leading economic indicators new approaches and forecasting records |
| title_full | Leading economic indicators new approaches and forecasting records edited by Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore |
| title_fullStr | Leading economic indicators new approaches and forecasting records edited by Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore |
| title_full_unstemmed | Leading economic indicators new approaches and forecasting records edited by Kajal Lahiri and Geoffrey H. Moore |
| title_short | Leading economic indicators |
| title_sort | leading economic indicators new approaches and forecasting records |
| title_sub | new approaches and forecasting records |
| topic | Business cycles Economic forecasting Economic indicators Konjunkturindikator (DE-588)4139118-4 gnd Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Wirtschaftsindikator (DE-588)4249243-9 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Business cycles Economic forecasting Economic indicators Konjunkturindikator Wirtschaft Wirtschaftsindikator Prognose Aufsatzsammlung Konferenzschrift 1987 Albany NY |
| url | https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781139173735 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT lahirikajal leadingeconomicindicatorsnewapproachesandforecastingrecords AT mooregeoffreyhoyt leadingeconomicindicatorsnewapproachesandforecastingrecords |