Public debt dynamics: the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, D.C.
International Monetary Fund
2012
|
| Series: | IMF working paper
WP/12/230 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | FAW01 FAW02 FLA01 |
| Item Description: | At head of title: Institute for Capacity Development. - "September 2012." Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-16) The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path |
| Physical Description: | 28 pages |
| ISBN: | 1475541279 9781475541274 |
Staff View
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-16) | ||
| 500 | |a The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path | ||
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:35:07Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 1475541279 9781475541274 |
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| spelling | Cherif, Reda Verfasser aut Public debt dynamics the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov Washington, D.C. International Monetary Fund 2012 28 pages txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier IMF working paper WP/12/230 At head of title: Institute for Capacity Development. - "September 2012." Includes bibliographical references (pages 14-16) The author studies how macroeconomic shocks affect U.S. public debt dynamics using a VAR with debt feedback. Following a fiscal austerity shock, the debt ratio initially declines and then returns to its pre-shock path. Yet, the effect is not statistically significant. In a weak economic environment, the likelihood of a self-defeating austerity shock is much higher than in normal times. An inflation shock only slightly reduces the debt ratio for a few quarters. A positive growth shock unambiguously lowers debt. In our specification, the debt ratio is stationary, whereas a VAR excluding debt may imply an explosive debt path Debts, Public / Econometric models fast Fiscal policy / Econometric models fast BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Public Finance bisacsh Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Debts, Public United States Econometric models Fiscal policy United States Econometric models USA Hasanov, Fuad 1978- Sonstige oth International Monetary FundXXbInstitute for Capacity Development Sonstige oth |
| spellingShingle | Cherif, Reda Public debt dynamics the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks Debts, Public / Econometric models fast Fiscal policy / Econometric models fast BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Public Finance bisacsh Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Debts, Public United States Econometric models Fiscal policy United States Econometric models |
| title | Public debt dynamics the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks |
| title_auth | Public debt dynamics the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks |
| title_exact_search | Public debt dynamics the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks |
| title_full | Public debt dynamics the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov |
| title_fullStr | Public debt dynamics the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov |
| title_full_unstemmed | Public debt dynamics the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks Reda Cherif and Fuad Hasanov |
| title_short | Public debt dynamics |
| title_sort | public debt dynamics the effects of austerity inflation and growth shocks |
| title_sub | the effects of austerity, inflation, and growth shocks |
| topic | Debts, Public / Econometric models fast Fiscal policy / Econometric models fast BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Public Finance bisacsh Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Debts, Public United States Econometric models Fiscal policy United States Econometric models |
| topic_facet | Debts, Public / Econometric models Fiscal policy / Econometric models BUSINESS & ECONOMICS / Public Finance Wirtschaft Ökonometrisches Modell Debts, Public United States Econometric models Fiscal policy United States Econometric models USA |
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