Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector: Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Baden-Baden
Nomos
2016
|
| Edition: | 1. edition |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltstext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | 338 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9783848726318 3848726319 |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector |b Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia |c Rainer Elsland |
| 250 | |a 1. edition | ||
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| 502 | |b Dissertation |c Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) |d 2015 | ||
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| 653 | |a Integrated Demand Model | ||
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Record in the Search Index
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CONTENTS
LIST OF FIGURES 15
LIST OF TABLES 23
LIST OF FORMULAS 23
ABBREVIATIONS 31
GLOSSARY 35
1. INTRODUCTION 39
1.1 BACKGROUND 39
1.2 PROBLEM DEFINITION 40
1.3 OBJECTIVE AND PROCEDURE 41
2. RELEVANT DEVELOPMENTS IN THE RESIDENTIAL SECTOR AND EXISTING
MODELLING APPROACHES 43
2.1 OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTER 43
2.2 AN EMPIRICAL ASSESSMENT OF ENERGY DEMAND IN THE
RESIDENTIAL SECTOR 44
2.2.1 ENERGY DEMAND AND DRIVERS 44
2.2.2 TECHNOLOGICAL TRENDS AND RELEVANT POLICIES 49
2.3 EX ANTE ANALYSIS OF RESIDENTIAL ENERGY DEMAND 54
2.4 MODELLING APPROACHES FOR RESIDENTIAL ENERGY DEMAND 56
2.4.1 INTRODUCTION TO MODELLING 56
2.4.2 SELECTION CRITERIA FOR A SUITABLE MODELLING APPROACH 56
2.4.3 CHARACTERISATION OF EXISTING MODELLING APPROACHES 57
2.4.4 BOTTOM-UP MODELLING AND SELECTION OF A SUITABLE
APPROACH 60
2.5 EXISTING MODELS FOCUSSING ON VERY LONG-TERM ENERGY
ANALYSIS 65
2.6 SUMMARY AND RESEARCH GAP 67
3. DEVELOPMENT OF AN INTEGRATED MODELLING CONCEPT FOR LONG-TERM
ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS 69
3.1 OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTER 69
3.2 INTRODUCTION TO THE INTEGRATED MODELLING CONCEPT 69
3.3 FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS AND CONCEPT REQUIREMENTS 72
3.4 HIERARCHICAL DIMENSIONS OF THE INTEGRATED MODELLING
CONCEPT 73
3.5 CONCEPT STRUCTURE AND PROCEDURE 75
4. DEVELOPMENT OF THE END-USE MODEL 79
4.1 OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTER 79
4.2 FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS AND MODEL REQUIREMENTS 80
4.3 MODELLING STRUCTURE AND PROCEDURE 80
4.4 SELECTION OF METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES 85
4.4.1 REPRESENTATION OF INNOVATION AND DIFFUSION 85
4.4.1.1 INTRODUCTION TO INNOVATION AND DIFFUSION
MODELLING 85
4.4.1.2 MODELLING INNOVATION CYCLES 86
4.4.1.3 MODELLING DIFFUSION AS AN EPIDEMIC PROCESS 89
4.4.1.4 MODELLING DIFFUSION BASED ON DECISION
MAKING 91
4.4.2 REPRESENTATION OF THE DECREASING TREND OF INVESTMENT
COSTS 95
4.4.3 REPRESENTATION OF ENERGY CARRIER PRICE EXPECTATION 96
4.4.4 REPRESENTATION OF TECHNOLOGY-RELATED ENERGY
EFFICIENCY DEVELOPMENT 97
4.4.5 REPRESENTATION OF ENERGY BUDGET INDUCED REBOUND
EFFECTS 102
4.4.6 REPRESENTATION OF RESIDUAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND 107
4.5 SIMULATION OF FINAL ENERGY DEMAND 112
4.5.1 CALCULATION OF MODULE I 112
4.5.1.1 CALCULATION OF OWNERSHIP RATES 112
4.5.1.2 CALCULATION OF END-USE STOCK TRANSFORMATION 116
4.5.1.3 CALCULATION OF SPECIFIC ENERGY DEMAND 120
4.5.1.4 CALCULATION OF RESIDUAL ELECTRICITY DEMAND 122
4.5.2 CALCULATION OF MODULE II 124
4.5.2.1 CALCULATION OF USEFUL ENERGY DEMAND PER
BUILDING SEGMENT 124
4.5.2.2 CALCULATION OF BUILDING STOCK TRANSFORMATION 131
4.5.2.3 CALCULATION OF FINAL ENERGY DEMAND AND
USEFUL ENERGY DEMAND COVERAGE OF INSTALLED
VENTILATION SYSTEMS 135
4.5.2.4 CALCULATION OF STOCK TRANSFORMATION OF
HEATING SYSTEMS 137
4.5.2.5 CALCULATION OF RESTRICTIONS OF HEATING SYSTEM
DIFFUSION BEYOND THE SYSTEM BOUNDARIES OF
ENERGY DEMAND MODELS 143
4.5.3 CALCULATION OF FINAL ENERGY DEMAND 149
4.5.4 VALIDATION OF THE MODEL 151
4.6 METHODOLOGICAL CONCLUSIONS 154
4.6.1 ADDED VALUE OF THE MODEL 154
4.6.2 OPPORTUNITIES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 156
5. DEVELOPMENT OF THE TRANSITION MODEL 159
5.1 OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTER 159
5.2 FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS AND MODEL REQUIREMENTS 160
5.3 MEASURES TO QUANTIFY INNOVATION ACTIVITY 160
5.3.1 COMPARISON AND SELECTION OF INNOVATION MEASURES 160
5.3.2 CRITICAL DISCUSSION OF PATENT APPLICATIONS AS A
MEASURE OF INNOVATION 164
5.4 MODELLING STRUCTURE AND PROCEDURE 166
5.5 SELECTION OF METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES 167
5.5.1 DEVELOPMENT OF A PROCEDURE FOR A PATENT-BASED
CONCORDANCE 167
5.5.2 QUANTIFICATION OF THE PACE OF TECHNOLOGICAL PROGRESS 169
5.5.2.1 CLASSIFICATION OF INDICATORS BASED ON PATENTS 169
5.5.2.2 SELECTION OF AN INDICATOR BASED ON PATENTS 170
5.5.2.3 DISCUSSION OF STUDIES APPLYING THE
TECHNOLOGY-CYCLE-TIME INDICATOR 173
5.6 CALCULATION OF THE END-USE-SPECIFIC DEPRECIATION OF
TECHNOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE 177
5.6.1 DEVELOPMENT OF A CONCORDANCE BETWEEN THE
INTERNATIONAL PATENT CLASSIFICATION SCHEME AND END-
USES 177
5.6.1.1 CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT 177
5.6.1.2 QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT 186
5.6.2 CALCULATION OF THE TECHNOLOGY-CYCLE-TIME 187
5.6.2.1 CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT 187
5.6.2.2 QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT 189
5.6.3 CALCULATING THE DEPRECIATION OF TECHNOLOGICAL
KNOWLEDGE 194
5.6.3.1 CONCEPT DEVELOPMENT 194
5.6.3.2 QUANTITATIVE ASSESSMENT 197
5.6.4 VALIDATION OF THE MODEL 199
5.7 METHODOLOGICAL CONCLUSIONS 202
5.7.1 ADDED VALUE OF THE MODEL 202
5.7.2 OPPORTUNITIES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 203
6. DEVELOPMENT OF THE ENERGY SERVICE MODEL 205
6.1 OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTER 205
6.2 FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS AND MODEL REQUIREMENTS 206
6.3 MODELLING STRUCTURE AND PROCEDURE 206
6.4 SELECTION OF METHODOLOGICAL APPROACHES 210
6.4.1 REPRESENTATION OF DECOMPOSED ENERGY DEMAND BY
EFFECTS 210
6.4.2 REPRESENTATION OF LONG-TERM ENERGY DEMAND TRENDS 214
6.5 SIMULATION OF FINAL ENERGY DEMAND 215
6.5.1 DECOMPOSITION ANALYSIS OF EMPIRICAL ENERGY DEMAND 215
6.5.2 DETERMINATION OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES 220
6.5.3 DISCUSSION OF ALTERNATIVE LINEAR REGRESSION MODELS
AND STATISTICAL TESTING METHODS 222
6.5.4 EXTENSION OF REGRESSION MODELS TO CAPTURE LONG-TERM
ELASTICITIES 225
6.5.5 CALCULATION OF MODULE I 226
6.5.5.1 ASSIGNMENT OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES TO
DECOMPOSITION EFFECTS 226
6.5.5.2 SELECTION OF REGRESSION MODELS 227
6.5.6 CALCULATION OF MODULE II 230
6.5.6.1 ASSIGNMENT OF EXPLANATORY VARIABLES TO
DECOMPOSITION EFFECTS 230
6.5.6.2 SELECTION OF REGRESSION MODELS 230
6.5.7 CALCULATION OF FINAL ENERGY DEMAND 234
6.5.8 VALIDATION OF THE MODEL 235
6.6 METHODOLOGICAL CONCLUSIONS 237
6.6.1 ADDED VALUE OF THE MODEL 237
6.6.2 OPPORTUNITIES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 237
7. DEVELOPMENT OF THE INTEGRATED DEMAND MODEL 241
7.1 OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTER 241
7.2 INTEGRATION OF MODELS 242
7.2.1 FRAMEWORK CONDITIONS AND REQUIREMENTS OF MODEL
COUPLING 242
7.2.2 STRUCTURE AND PROCEDURE OF THE MODEL INTEGRATION 242
7.2.3 MODELLING THE TRANSITION FROM A TECHNOLOGY-BASED TO
AN ENERGY SERVICE-BASED REPRESENTATION OF ENERGY
DEMAND 243
7.2.4 MODELLING THE IMPACT OF THE TECHNOLOGY-CYCLE-TIME
ON ENERGY EFFICIENCY DEVELOPMENT 247
7.2.5 CALCULATION OF FINAL ENERGY DEMAND 250
7.2.6 PLAUSIBILITY CHECK OF MODEL COUPLING 250
7.3 METHODOLOGICAL CONCLUSIONS 252
7.3.1 ADDED VALUE OF THE INTEGRATED MODEL 252
7.3.2 OPPORTUNITIES FOR FURTHER RESEARCH 253
8. ANALYSIS OF LONG-TERM ENERGY DEMAND USING THE INTEGRATED
DEMAND MODEL 255
8.1 OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTER 255
8.2 SCENARIO ANALYSIS 255
8.2.1 DEFINITION AND PARAMETERS 255
8.2.1.1 SCENARIO DEFINITION 255
8.2.1.2 SOCIO-ECONOMIC, PRICE AND CLIMATE
PARAMETERS 257
8.2.1.3 TECHNO-ECONOMIC PARAMETERS 259
8.2.1.4 ENERGY SERVICE-RELATED PARAMETERS 261
8.2.1.5 TECHNOLOGY-CYCLE-TIME 261
8.2.2 RESULTS 264
8.2.2.1 ANALYSING ENERGY DEMAND BASED ON THE END-
USE MODEL 264
5.2.2.2 COMPARISON OF ENERGY DEMAND BASED ON THE
END-USE MODEL AND THE ENERGY SERVICE
MODEL 267
8.2.2.3 ANALYSING ENERGY DEMAND BASED ON THE
INTEGRATED DEMAND MODEL 271
8.3 SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS 274
8.3.1 DEFINITION 274
8.3.2 RESULTS 275
8.3.2.1 ANALYSING THE IMPACT ON ENERGY DEMAND OF
DRIVERS ESSENTIALLY INFLUENCING TECHNOLOGICAL
KNOWLEDGE 275
8.3.2.2 ANALYSING THE IMPACT ON THE TECHNOLOGICAL
KNOWLEDGE STOCK OF DRIVERS ESSENTIALLY
INFLUENCING TECHNOLOGICAL KNOWLEDGE 277
9. CONCLUSIONS AND OUTLOOK 281
9.1 CONTRIBUTIONS TO THE SCIENTIFIC DISCUSSION 281
9.1.1 RECOMMENDATIONS TO EXTEND BOTTOM-UP MODELS FOR
THE ASSESSMENT OF LONG-TERM SCENARIOS BY EXPLICITLY
TAKING TECHNOLOGICAL MYOPIA INTO ACCOUNT 281
9.1.2 IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEWLY DEVELOPED CONCEPT FOR EX
ANTE RESIDENTIAL ENERGY DEMAND ANALYSIS 283
9.1.3 GENERAL LIMITATIONS ON THE MEANINGFULNESS OF BOTTOM-
UP RESULTS DUE TO TECHNOLOGICAL MYOPIA 285
9.2 CRITICAL REFLECTIONS 286
9.3 OUTLOOK 289
10. SUMMARY 293
REFERENCES 299 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
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| author_GND | (DE-588)1098554752 |
| author_facet | Elsland, Rainer 1980- |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Elsland, Rainer 1980- |
| author_variant | r e re |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV043550691 |
| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)953134699 (DE-599)DNB1089073720 |
| dewey-full | 330 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
| dewey-raw | 330 |
| dewey-search | 330 |
| dewey-sort | 3330 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 1. edition |
| format | Thesis Book |
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| publisher | Nomos |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Elsland, Rainer 1980- Verfasser (DE-588)1098554752 aut Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia Rainer Elsland 1. edition Baden-Baden Nomos 2016 338 Seiten Illustrationen, Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Dissertation Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT) 2015 Wohnimmobilien (DE-588)4412410-7 gnd rswk-swf Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Diffusion Wirtschaft (DE-588)4139407-0 gnd rswk-swf Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd rswk-swf Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 gnd rswk-swf Climate Change Energieeffizienz Energiepolitik Integrated Demand Model Supply & Demand Technology Assessment (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Wohnimmobilien (DE-588)4412410-7 s Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 s Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 s Diffusion Wirtschaft (DE-588)4139407-0 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 Nomos Verlagsgesellschaft (DE-588)117513-0 pbl X:MVB text/html http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=131f258a1ec74770a961ce986b6aef10&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm Inhaltstext DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028965963&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Elsland, Rainer 1980- Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia Wohnimmobilien (DE-588)4412410-7 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Diffusion Wirtschaft (DE-588)4139407-0 gnd Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4412410-7 (DE-588)4047390-9 (DE-588)4139407-0 (DE-588)4059252-2 (DE-588)4014733-2 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia |
| title_auth | Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia |
| title_exact_search | Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia |
| title_full | Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia Rainer Elsland |
| title_fullStr | Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia Rainer Elsland |
| title_full_unstemmed | Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia Rainer Elsland |
| title_short | Long-term Energy Demand in the German Residential Sector |
| title_sort | long term energy demand in the german residential sector development of an integrated modelling concept to capture technological myopia |
| title_sub | Development of an Integrated Modelling Concept to Capture Technological Myopia |
| topic | Wohnimmobilien (DE-588)4412410-7 gnd Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Diffusion Wirtschaft (DE-588)4139407-0 gnd Technischer Fortschritt (DE-588)4059252-2 gnd Energieverbrauch (DE-588)4014733-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wohnimmobilien Prognose Diffusion Wirtschaft Technischer Fortschritt Energieverbrauch Hochschulschrift |
| url | http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=131f258a1ec74770a961ce986b6aef10&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028965963&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT elslandrainer longtermenergydemandinthegermanresidentialsectordevelopmentofanintegratedmodellingconcepttocapturetechnologicalmyopia AT nomosverlagsgesellschaft longtermenergydemandinthegermanresidentialsectordevelopmentofanintegratedmodellingconcepttocapturetechnologicalmyopia |