Whither al-Anbar Province?: five scenarios through 2011
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Electronic eBook |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Santa Monica, CA
RAND
2010
|
| Series: | Occasional paper (Rand Corporation)
OP-278-MCIA. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | FAW01 FAW02 Volltext |
| Item Description: | "RAND National Defense Research Institute." Includes bibliographical references The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will create a vacuum in the way security is achieved and power is exercised throughout Iraq. As U.S. Marines draw down in al-Anbar Province, significant changes can be expected throughout the province in security, political, economic, and even cultural relationships. In late 2008, RAND convened a series of three one-day workshops bringing together civilian and military analysts and practitioners with experience on al-Anbar Province or comparable expertise on Iraq. Workshops participants identified five relatively distinct futures, or scenarios, for al-Anbar that provide plausible but alternative trajectories for the province between early 2009 and the end of 2011. These scenarios resulted from extensive consideration of the major assumptions that may underlie any future projections and the testing of those assumptions in a variety of exercises. The deliberations also focused on the major factors that will shape the development of one or another scenario Executive summary -- What does the future hold for Iraq's al-Anbar Province? -- How this study was conducted -- Implications -- Major takeaways -- Study approach -- Assumptions -- Drivers -- Scenario A: Sunni fight for survival -- Scenario B: Every clan for itself -- Scenario C: Iron fist -- Scenario D: Glueless in Baghdad -- Scenario E: Path to stability -- The importance of drivers -- Indications and warnings -- Conclusions and implications |
| Physical Description: | 1 Online-Ressource (xiii, 12 pages) |
| ISBN: | 0833048031 0833050818 9780833048035 9780833050816 |
Staff View
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| spelling | Bruce, James B. Verfasser aut Whither al-Anbar Province? five scenarios through 2011 James B. Bruce, Jeffrey Martini Santa Monica, CA RAND 2010 1 Online-Ressource (xiii, 12 pages) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) OP-278-MCIA. "RAND National Defense Research Institute." Includes bibliographical references The withdrawal of U.S. forces from Iraq will create a vacuum in the way security is achieved and power is exercised throughout Iraq. As U.S. Marines draw down in al-Anbar Province, significant changes can be expected throughout the province in security, political, economic, and even cultural relationships. In late 2008, RAND convened a series of three one-day workshops bringing together civilian and military analysts and practitioners with experience on al-Anbar Province or comparable expertise on Iraq. Workshops participants identified five relatively distinct futures, or scenarios, for al-Anbar that provide plausible but alternative trajectories for the province between early 2009 and the end of 2011. These scenarios resulted from extensive consideration of the major assumptions that may underlie any future projections and the testing of those assumptions in a variety of exercises. The deliberations also focused on the major factors that will shape the development of one or another scenario Executive summary -- What does the future hold for Iraq's al-Anbar Province? -- How this study was conducted -- Implications -- Major takeaways -- Study approach -- Assumptions -- Drivers -- Scenario A: Sunni fight for survival -- Scenario B: Every clan for itself -- Scenario C: Iron fist -- Scenario D: Glueless in Baghdad -- Scenario E: Path to stability -- The importance of drivers -- Indications and warnings -- Conclusions and implications 21st century Anbar̄ (Iraq : Province) Anbar̄ (Province) Armed Forces Case studies Congresses Disengagement (Military science) Economic conditions Forecasting Influence Iraq Iraq War, 2003- Politics and government Social change Social conditions Social prediction United States History Social Science HISTORY / General bisacsh HISTORY / Middle East / General bisacsh Geschichte Politik Wirtschaft Social prediction Iraq Anbār (Province) Case studies Congresses Social change Iraq Anbār (Province) Congresses Iraq War, 2003-2011 Influence Congresses Disengagement (Military science) Congresses Irak Naher Osten USA (DE-588)4522595-3 Fallstudiensammlung gnd-content (DE-588)1071861417 Konferenzschrift gnd-content Martini, Jeffrey Sonstige oth Intelligence Policy Center (U.S.) Sonstige oth United States Marine Corps Intelligence Activity Sonstige oth http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=343546 Aggregator Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Bruce, James B. Whither al-Anbar Province? five scenarios through 2011 21st century Anbar̄ (Iraq : Province) Anbar̄ (Province) Armed Forces Case studies Congresses Disengagement (Military science) Economic conditions Forecasting Influence Iraq Iraq War, 2003- Politics and government Social change Social conditions Social prediction United States History Social Science HISTORY / General bisacsh HISTORY / Middle East / General bisacsh Geschichte Politik Wirtschaft Social prediction Iraq Anbār (Province) Case studies Congresses Social change Iraq Anbār (Province) Congresses Iraq War, 2003-2011 Influence Congresses Disengagement (Military science) Congresses |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4522595-3 (DE-588)1071861417 |
| title | Whither al-Anbar Province? five scenarios through 2011 |
| title_auth | Whither al-Anbar Province? five scenarios through 2011 |
| title_exact_search | Whither al-Anbar Province? five scenarios through 2011 |
| title_full | Whither al-Anbar Province? five scenarios through 2011 James B. Bruce, Jeffrey Martini |
| title_fullStr | Whither al-Anbar Province? five scenarios through 2011 James B. Bruce, Jeffrey Martini |
| title_full_unstemmed | Whither al-Anbar Province? five scenarios through 2011 James B. Bruce, Jeffrey Martini |
| title_short | Whither al-Anbar Province? |
| title_sort | whither al anbar province five scenarios through 2011 |
| title_sub | five scenarios through 2011 |
| topic | 21st century Anbar̄ (Iraq : Province) Anbar̄ (Province) Armed Forces Case studies Congresses Disengagement (Military science) Economic conditions Forecasting Influence Iraq Iraq War, 2003- Politics and government Social change Social conditions Social prediction United States History Social Science HISTORY / General bisacsh HISTORY / Middle East / General bisacsh Geschichte Politik Wirtschaft Social prediction Iraq Anbār (Province) Case studies Congresses Social change Iraq Anbār (Province) Congresses Iraq War, 2003-2011 Influence Congresses Disengagement (Military science) Congresses |
| topic_facet | 21st century Anbar̄ (Iraq : Province) Anbar̄ (Province) Armed Forces Case studies Congresses Disengagement (Military science) Economic conditions Forecasting Influence Iraq Iraq War, 2003- Politics and government Social change Social conditions Social prediction United States History Social Science HISTORY / General HISTORY / Middle East / General Geschichte Politik Wirtschaft Social prediction Iraq Anbār (Province) Case studies Congresses Social change Iraq Anbār (Province) Congresses Iraq War, 2003-2011 Influence Congresses Disengagement (Military science) Congresses Irak Naher Osten USA Fallstudiensammlung Konferenzschrift |
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