Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies:
Gespeichert in:
| Körperschaft: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Washington, D.C.
National Academies Press
c2010
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | FAW01 FAW02 Volltext |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references Need for persistent long-term forecasting of disruptive technologies -- Existing technology forecasting methodologies -- The nature of disruptive technologies -- Reducing forecasting ignorance and bias -- Ideal attributes of a disruptive technology forecasting system -- Evaluating existing persistent forecasting systems -- Conclusion "Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR & E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation."--Publisher's description |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (xvi, 119 p.) |
| ISBN: | 0309116600 0309116619 9780309116602 9780309116619 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies |c Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National Academies |
| 264 | 1 | |a Washington, D.C. |b National Academies Press |c c2010 | |
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| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references | ||
| 500 | |a Need for persistent long-term forecasting of disruptive technologies -- Existing technology forecasting methodologies -- The nature of disruptive technologies -- Reducing forecasting ignorance and bias -- Ideal attributes of a disruptive technology forecasting system -- Evaluating existing persistent forecasting systems -- Conclusion | ||
| 500 | |a "Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR & E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation."--Publisher's description | ||
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| author_corporate | National Research Council (U.S.) Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies |
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| author_facet | National Research Council (U.S.) Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies |
| author_sort | National Research Council (U.S.) Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies |
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| dewey-full | 601/.12 |
| dewey-hundreds | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
| dewey-ones | 601 - Philosophy and theory |
| dewey-raw | 601/.12 |
| dewey-search | 601/.12 |
| dewey-sort | 3601 212 |
| dewey-tens | 600 - Technology (Applied sciences) |
| discipline | Technik allgemein |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:17:55Z |
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| isbn | 0309116600 0309116619 9780309116602 9780309116619 |
| language | English |
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| physical | 1 Online-Ressource (xvi, 119 p.) |
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| publishDate | 2010 |
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| spelling | National Research Council (U.S.) Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies Verfasser aut Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National Academies Washington, D.C. National Academies Press c2010 1 Online-Ressource (xvi, 119 p.) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references Need for persistent long-term forecasting of disruptive technologies -- Existing technology forecasting methodologies -- The nature of disruptive technologies -- Reducing forecasting ignorance and bias -- Ideal attributes of a disruptive technology forecasting system -- Evaluating existing persistent forecasting systems -- Conclusion "Technological innovations are key causal agents of surprise and disruption. In the recent past, the United States military has encountered unexpected challenges in the battlefield due in part to the adversary's incorporation of technologies not traditionally associated with weaponry. Recognizing the need to broaden the scope of current technology forecasting efforts, the Office of the Director, Defense Research and Engineering (DDR & E) and the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) tasked the Committee for Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies with providing guidance and insight on how to build a persistent forecasting system to predict, analyze, and reduce the impact of the most dramatically disruptive technologies. The first of two reports, this volume analyzes existing forecasting methods and processes. It then outlines the necessary characteristics of a comprehensive forecasting system that integrates data from diverse sources to identify potentially game-changing technological innovations and facilitates informed decision making by policymakers. The committee's goal was to help the reader understand current forecasting methodologies, the nature of disruptive technologies and the characteristics of a persistent forecasting system for disruptive technology. Persistent Forecasting of Disruptive Technologies is a useful text for the Department of Defense, Homeland Security, the Intelligence community and other defense agencies across the nation."--Publisher's description TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / General bisacsh Disruptive technologies Technological forecasting Technological innovations http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=312480 Aggregator Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / General bisacsh Disruptive technologies Technological forecasting Technological innovations |
| title | Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies |
| title_auth | Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies |
| title_exact_search | Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies |
| title_full | Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National Academies |
| title_fullStr | Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National Academies |
| title_full_unstemmed | Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies Committee on Forecasting Future Disruptive Technologies, Division on Engineering and Physical Sciences, National Research Council of the National Academies |
| title_short | Persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies |
| title_sort | persistent forecasting of disruptive technologies |
| topic | TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / General bisacsh Disruptive technologies Technological forecasting Technological innovations |
| topic_facet | TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / General Disruptive technologies Technological forecasting Technological innovations |
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