Using social media to gauge Iranian public opinion and mood after the 2009 election (RAND, 2012)
Includes bibliographical references
Preface -- Figures and Table -- Summary -- Acknowledgments -- Abbreviations -- Introduction -- Analysis of Social Media Can Help Gauge Public Opinion and Mood in Closed Societies -- A New Computer-Based Tool Offers a Promising Means of Tapping into Politically Oriented Content in Social Media -- This Type of Analysis Can Have Important Policy Uses -- Organization of This Report -- Methodology -- The Precedent for Our Approach: Previous Research Using LIWC and Word-Usage Analysis -- LIWC Has Been Shown to Accurately Represent Verbal Expression -- The Real Potential of Exploring Word Usage Lies in Its Links with Behaviors and Outcomes -- Word Usage Is Now Being Studied in Politically Oriented Contexts -- Our Research Process -- Planning Tasks: Understanding the Sphere of Relevant Social Media -- Selecting Twitter Texts -- Selecting Iran-Relevant Political Topics -- Selecting the LIWC Word Categories to Use in Our Analysis and Defining How We Would Interpret Them --
- Background on Social Media Use in Iran and Events Surrounding the 2009 Election -- Social Media Use in Contemporary Iran -- The Scale of Internet and Social Media Usage in Contemporary Iran -- Who Is Using Social Media in Iran? -- The Anonymity Factor -- The Iranian Information Environment Prior to the 2009 Presidential Election -- The Use of Social Media During the 2009 Presidential Election in Iran -- The Role of Social Media in Iran's Internal Politics Grew Rapidly After the 2009 Presidential Election -- Major Events in Iran During the Post-Election Period -- The Rise of Mass Protests -- June 19: Khamenei's Friday Prayer Speech -- June 20: Neda Agha-Soltan's Death -- July 9: Anniversary of the 1999 Student Uprisings -- August 5: Ahmadinejad's Inauguration -- September 18: Quds Day -- Late December: Ashura Day Protests -- February 11, 2010: 31st Anniversary of the Islamic Revolution -- Overall Trends in Public Mood in Iran After the 2009 Presidential Election --
- Public Mood Throughout the Nine Months After the Election -- Twitter's Clearest Indicator of Mood and Forecaster of Action: Swear Words -- Use of Pronouns on Twitter After the Election -- Summary -- Iranian Public Opinion About Specific Topics in the Aftermath of the 2009 Election -- Public Opinion Leading Domestic Political Figures: Ahmadinejad, Khamenei, Mousavi, and Karroubi -- Summary -- Background -- Comparing Trends in Public Opinion About Political Figures -- Around the Quds Day Protest, Twitter Users Wrote More Negatively About Khamenei Than About Ahmadinejad -- At Certain Points, Twitter Users Wrote More Positively and Less Negatively About Karroubi Than About Mousavi -- Initially, Twitter Users Swore More About Ahmadinejad Than About Mousavi, but the Opposite Became True -- Policy Implications -- Pro-Government and Opposition Groups: The Green Movement, the Revolutionary Guards, and the Basij -- Summary -- Background --
- Comparing Trends in Public Opinion About Political Groups -- The Green Movement Was Viewed More Positively Than the Revolutionary Guards or Basij -- Twitter Users Swore More About the Basij Than About the Revolutionary Guards -- Public Opinion About the United States, President Obama, and the CIA -- Summary -- Usage of Swear Words Suggests Early Frustration with the United States and President Obama, as Well as a Strong Desire for U.S. Action -- Usage of First-Person Singular Pronouns Regarding the United States and President Obama Generally Paralleled Usage of Swear Words -- Pronoun Use When Writing About Obama as Compared with Iranian Figures -- Twitter Users Expressed Less Negative Emotion When Writing About Obama as Compared with Iranian Figures -- Positive Emotions in Tweets About Obama Showed Several Pronounced Spikes Compared with Tweets About the United States --