Counterinsurgency scorecard: Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Elektronisch E-Book |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Santa Monica, CA
RAND
2011
|
| Schriftenreihe: | Occasional paper (Rand Corporation)
OP-337-OSD. |
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | FAW01 FAW02 Volltext |
| Beschreibung: | Title from PDF title page (viewed June 29, 2011) The previously published RAND monograph, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, used detailed case studies of the 30 insurgencies worldwide begun and completed between 1978 and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A core finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 12 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices perfectly predicted the outcome of those 30 insurgencies. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a COIN win (insurgency loss) or a COIN loss (insurgency win) in the overall case. Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND project sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2011. The effort involved an expert elicitation, or Delphi, exercise in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The consensus results revealed that early 2011 Afghanistan scores in the middle of the historical record in terms of COIN wins and losses: its score was lower than that in the lowest-scoring historical COIN win but higher than that in the highest-scoring COIN loss. This suggests an uncertain outcome in Afghanistan, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue Includes bibliographical references (page 19) |
| Beschreibung: | 1 Online-Ressource (19 pages) |
| ISBN: | 0833052489 0833058118 0833058134 9780833052483 9780833058119 9780833058133 |
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| 246 | 1 | 3 | |a Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past thirty years |
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| 500 | |a Title from PDF title page (viewed June 29, 2011) | ||
| 500 | |a The previously published RAND monograph, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, used detailed case studies of the 30 insurgencies worldwide begun and completed between 1978 and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A core finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 12 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices perfectly predicted the outcome of those 30 insurgencies. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a COIN win (insurgency loss) or a COIN loss (insurgency win) in the overall case. Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND project sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2011. The effort involved an expert elicitation, or Delphi, exercise in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The consensus results revealed that early 2011 Afghanistan scores in the middle of the historical record in terms of COIN wins and losses: its score was lower than that in the lowest-scoring historical COIN win but higher than that in the highest-scoring COIN loss. This suggests an uncertain outcome in Afghanistan, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references (page 19) | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Command of troops | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Counterinsurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Counterinsurgency | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Guerrilla warfare | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Insurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Military Science | |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| any_adam_object | |
| author | Paul, Christopher |
| author_facet | Paul, Christopher |
| author_role | aut |
| author_sort | Paul, Christopher |
| author_variant | c p cp |
| building | Verbundindex |
| bvnumber | BV043088654 |
| collection | ZDB-4-EBA |
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| dewey-full | 355.02/184 |
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| dewey-ones | 355 - Military science |
| dewey-raw | 355.02/184 |
| dewey-search | 355.02/184 |
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| dewey-tens | 350 - Public administration and military science |
| discipline | Militärwissenschaft |
| format | Electronic eBook |
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| illustrated | Not Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-10T07:17:04Z |
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| isbn | 0833052489 0833058118 0833058134 9780833052483 9780833058119 9780833058133 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Paul, Christopher Verfasser aut Counterinsurgency scorecard Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years Christopher Paul Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past thirty years Santa Monica, CA RAND 2011 1 Online-Ressource (19 pages) txt rdacontent c rdamedia cr rdacarrier Occasional paper (Rand Corporation) OP-337-OSD. Title from PDF title page (viewed June 29, 2011) The previously published RAND monograph, Victory Has a Thousand Fathers: Sources of Success in Counterinsurgency, used detailed case studies of the 30 insurgencies worldwide begun and completed between 1978 and 2008 to analyze correlates of success in counterinsurgency (COIN). A core finding was that a case's score on a scorecard of 15 equally weighted good and 12 equally weighted bad COIN factors and practices perfectly predicted the outcome of those 30 insurgencies. That is, the balance of good and bad factors and practices correlated with either a COIN win (insurgency loss) or a COIN loss (insurgency win) in the overall case. Using the scorecard approach as its foundation, a RAND project sought to extend the findings to the case of Afghanistan in early 2011. The effort involved an expert elicitation, or Delphi, exercise in which experts were asked to make "worst-case" assessments of the factors to complete the scorecard for ongoing operations in Afghanistan. The consensus results revealed that early 2011 Afghanistan scores in the middle of the historical record in terms of COIN wins and losses: its score was lower than that in the lowest-scoring historical COIN win but higher than that in the highest-scoring COIN loss. This suggests an uncertain outcome in Afghanistan, but the findings may help provide additional guidance as operations continue Includes bibliographical references (page 19) Command of troops Counterinsurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century Counterinsurgency Guerrilla warfare Insurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century Military Science HISTORY / Military / Other bisacsh TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science bisacsh COMPUTERS / Data Modeling & Design bisacsh Counterinsurgency fast Geschichte Counterinsurgency Afghanistan Rand Corporation Sonstige oth National Defense Research Institute (U.S.) Sonstige oth http://search.ebscohost.com/login.aspx?direct=true&scope=site&db=nlebk&db=nlabk&AN=376632 Aggregator Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Paul, Christopher Counterinsurgency scorecard Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years Command of troops Counterinsurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century Counterinsurgency Guerrilla warfare Insurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century Military Science HISTORY / Military / Other bisacsh TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science bisacsh COMPUTERS / Data Modeling & Design bisacsh Counterinsurgency fast Geschichte Counterinsurgency Afghanistan |
| title | Counterinsurgency scorecard Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years |
| title_alt | Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past thirty years |
| title_auth | Counterinsurgency scorecard Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years |
| title_exact_search | Counterinsurgency scorecard Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years |
| title_full | Counterinsurgency scorecard Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years Christopher Paul |
| title_fullStr | Counterinsurgency scorecard Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years Christopher Paul |
| title_full_unstemmed | Counterinsurgency scorecard Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years Christopher Paul |
| title_short | Counterinsurgency scorecard |
| title_sort | counterinsurgency scorecard afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years |
| title_sub | Afghanistan in early 2011 relative to the insurgencies of the past 30 years |
| topic | Command of troops Counterinsurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century Counterinsurgency Guerrilla warfare Insurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century Military Science HISTORY / Military / Other bisacsh TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science bisacsh COMPUTERS / Data Modeling & Design bisacsh Counterinsurgency fast Geschichte Counterinsurgency Afghanistan |
| topic_facet | Command of troops Counterinsurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century Counterinsurgency Guerrilla warfare Insurgency / Afghanistan / History / 21st century Military Science HISTORY / Military / Other TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Military Science COMPUTERS / Data Modeling & Design Geschichte Counterinsurgency Afghanistan |
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