Managing risk and uncertainty: a strategic approach
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, Massachusetts ; London, England
The MIT Press
[2015]
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | xvi, 376 Seiten Diagramme |
| ISBN: | 9780262528191 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
PREFACE
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
XIII
XVII
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 A MOTIVATION AND AN OVERVIEW OF THE CHAPTERS
1.2 MODELS OR GUT FEELING? A MOTIVATION
1.3 SOME DEFINITIONS
2 FRAMEWORK OF THE BOOK
2.1 A MATRIX OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
2.2 FOUR STRATEGIES
2.3 A COMPARISON OF STRATEGIES
I DECISION-MAKING UNDER RISK
3 A FIRST LOOK AT RISK: PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTIONS
3.1 RISK AND UNCERTAINTY
3.2 ONE RANDOM VARIABLE: UNIVARIATE STATISTICAL DISTRIBUTIONS
3.3 SEVERAL RANDOM VARIABLES: HOW TO DESCRIBE INTERRELATIONS
APPENDIX 3A: WEAK LAW OF LARGE NUMBERS
APPENDIX 3B: CENTRAL LIMIT THEOREMS
EXERCISES
4 MODELING DECISIONS UNDER RISK: FROM INDIVIDUALS TO FIRMS
4.1 INTRODUCTORY NOTES ON FUNCTIONS
4.2 ECONOMICS OF CHOICE UNDER RISK: VON NEUMANN-MORGENSTERN
EXPECTED UTILITY
4.3 CONCAVITY AND CONVEXITY OF PROFIT FUNCTIONS
4.4 MODIGLIANI-MILLER AND THE MANAGEMENT OF RISKS
1
1
4
6
9
10
11
16
21
23
23
27
39
46
48
49
53
55
55
62
66
VIII CONTENTS
APPENDIX 4A: CONCAVITY AND CONVEXITY OF FUNCTIONS AND THE
NOTATION USED IN THIS BOOK 73
APPENDIX 4B: COMBINING FUNCTIONS 75
APPENDIX 4C: JENSEN S INEQUALITY 76
APPENDIX 4D: CAPITAL ASSET-PRICING MODEL 78
APPENDIX 4E: BORROWING CONSTRAINTS AND A LOWER THRESHOLD 81
EXERCISES 83
5 CALCULATING THE VALUE OF INVESTMENTS 85
5.1 CALCULATING NET PRESENT VALUE 85
5.2 MORE ON THE APPROPRIATE DISCOUNT RATE*AND WHAT
ABOUT RISK? 90
5.3 OTHER METHODS OF JUDGING WHICH INVESTMENTS TO PURSUE 94
5.4 HOW IS THE VALUE OF PROJECTS EVALUATED? 95
EXERCISES 96
6 RISK MANAGEMENT WITH FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS: THE EVIDENCE 97
6.1 FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS AND THEIR USE: A QUICK REMINDER 97
6.2 DIFFERENT FORMS OF EXPOSURE AND THEIR MEASUREMENT 99
6.3 WHAT IS THE EXTENT OF FINANCIAL HEDGING, AND WHAT INSTRUMENTS
ARE USED? 102
6.4 DIFFERENCES ACROSS FIRMS IN THE USE OF FINANCIAL INSTRUMENTS
FOR HEDGING 104
6.5 HEDGING VERSUS SPECULATION 108
6.6 WHAT IS THE EFFECT OF FINANCIAL HEDGING ON EARNINGS
AND VALUATION? 110
6.7 FINANCIAL HEDGES: SHORT TERM OR LONG TERM? 111
EXERCISES 114
II UNCERTAINTY AND FOUR STRATEGIES 115
7 INCOMPLETE CONTRACTS IN FINANCIAL MARKETS AND EVIDENCE ON THE ROLE OF
OPERATIONAL MEANS OF DEALING WITH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 117
7.1 RISK, UNCERTAINTY, AND THE POSSIBILITY OF HEDGING ON
FINANCIAL MARKETS 120
7.2 FINANCIAL AND OPERATIONAL MEANS OF MANAGING RISK AND
UNCERTAINTY 124
EXERCISES 126
8 DECISION TREES AND GAME THEORY 127
8.1 DECISION TREES 129
8.2 UNCERTAINTY DUE TO STRATEGIC INTERACTION*GAME THEORY 132
CONTENTS
8.3 STRATEGIC COMMITMENTS 137
EXERCISES 141
9 UNCERTAINTY 143
9.1 SUBJECTIVE PROBABILITY 146
9.2 COMMONLY PROPOSED RULES FOR DECISION UNDER UNCERTAINTY 149
9.3 MODELING RATIONAL CHOICE WITH AMBIGUITY AVERSION 152
9.4 THE DECISION CRITERION USED TO EVALUATE STRATEGIES IN
CHAPTER 10 154
9.5 A DISCUSSION OF SOME ASSUMPTIONS 157
APPENDIX 9A: AXIOMATIC APPROACHES TO RATIONAL CHOICE UNDER
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 163
APPENDIX 9B: ELLSBERG S EXPERIMENT 167
APPENDIX 9C: EXAMPLE OF THE DECISION RULE WITH UNIFORM
DISTRIBUTION OF SHOCKS TO UNCERTAINTY 169
EXERCISES 170
10 OPERATIONAL AND FINANCIAL RESPONSES TO RISK AND UNCERTAINTY:
FOUR STRATEGIES 173
10.1 FOUR STRATEGIES TO DEAL WITH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 175
10.2 A COMPARISON OF STRATEGIES 178
10.3 A PARAMETRIC EXAMPLE 182
EXERCISES 186
11 RISK AND UNCERTAINTY IN DIFFERENT MARKETS 189
11.1 A MATRIX OF RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 190
11.2 WHAT ARE THE SHOCKS IN DIFFERENT MARKETS? 191
III STRATEGIES: A CLOSER LOOK 195
12 OPERATIONAL RESPONSES 197
12.1 A GENERAL INTUITION: THE VALUE OF FEWER CONSTRAINTS 198
12.2 COSTS 202
12.3 REVENUE ASPECTS OF DEALING WITH RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 209
12.4 RELATION TO OTHER WORK ON OPERATIONAL HEDGING AND
RISK MANAGEMENT 222
APPENDIX 12A: LAGRANGE 222
APPENDIX 12B: MARGINAL REVENUE, MARGINAL COSTS, AND VARIABLE
PROFITS IN A GRAPH 225
EXERCISES 228
CONTENTS
13 PRICING 231
13.1 PRICE-TAKER OR PRICE-MAKER? 231
13.2 HOW SHOULD PRICES RESPOND TO SHOCKS? 232
13.3 EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE ON PRICE MOVEMENTS IN RESPONSE TO COST
AND DEMAND SHOCKS 240
APPENDIX I3A: SOLVING THE BERTRAND MODEL 243
APPENDIX 13B: DORNBUSCH COURNOT MODEL 244
EXERCISES 247
14 VALUING PROJECTS 249
14.1 COUNTERFACTUAL PREDICTION: A VIEW FROM SCIENCE 249
14.2 WHAT TO USE WHEN? 250
14.3 REASONED GUESSTIMATES OF COST AND REVENUE ITEMS 250
14.4 ADDING RISK TO GUESSTIMATES: THE HERTZ METHOD 251
14.5 USING ECONOMETRIC ANALYSIS 254
14.6 EXPERIMENTS 256
14.7 VALUING REAL OPTIONS USING TOOLS FROM THE PRICING OF
FINANCIAL ASSETS 258
14.8 MONTE CARLO SIMULATION USING OLIGOPOLY THEORY (MCSOLT) 261
14.9 DON T EVEN TRY. 278
14.10 WHAT TO USE AND WHEN 279
APPENDIX 14A: VECTORS AND MATRICES*A REFRESHER 280
APPENDIX 14B: MATRIX ALGEBRA 281
EXERCISES 285
15 STRUCTURING INFORMATION FLOWS AND DECISION PROCESSES TO RESPOND TO
RISK AND UNCERTAINTY 287
15.1 ROLE OF ORGANIZATION AND MANAGEMENT IN PROFITABILITY
AND SURVIVAL 288
15.2 ORGANIZATIONAL STRUCTURES FOR RESPONDING TO UNCERTAINTY 291
15.3 INFORMATION 298
15.4 RESPONDING TO TRENDS AND NEW TECHNOLOGIES: AN EXTENSION 301
APPENDIX: TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY 306
EXERCISES 307
16 DECISIONS BASED ON BIASED ESTIMATES: ERRORS WE MAKE ON OUR OWN OR
AS A GROUP AND SOME HINTS FOR LIMITING THEM 309
16.1 SYSTEMATIC ERRORS WE MAKE ON OUR OWN 311
16.2 INTERACTION AS A REASON FOR BIASED ESTIMATES 315
16.3 AVOIDING SYSTEMATIC ERRORS 319
CONTENTS *
APPENDIX 16A: BAYES S LAW 325
APPENDIX 16B: A SIMPLE MODEL OF HERDING 326
EXERCISES 330
REFERENCES
333
INDEX 357
|
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| spelling | Friberg, Richard 1967- Verfasser (DE-588)129218618 aut Managing risk and uncertainty a strategic approach Richard Friberg Cambridge, Massachusetts ; London, England The MIT Press [2015] © 2015 xvi, 376 Seiten Diagramme txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Risk management Financial risk Corporations Finance Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd rswk-swf Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd rswk-swf Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 s Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 s DE-604 SWB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=028357066&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
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| subject_GND | (DE-588)4186957-6 (DE-588)4121590-4 |
| title | Managing risk and uncertainty a strategic approach |
| title_auth | Managing risk and uncertainty a strategic approach |
| title_exact_search | Managing risk and uncertainty a strategic approach |
| title_full | Managing risk and uncertainty a strategic approach Richard Friberg |
| title_fullStr | Managing risk and uncertainty a strategic approach Richard Friberg |
| title_full_unstemmed | Managing risk and uncertainty a strategic approach Richard Friberg |
| title_short | Managing risk and uncertainty |
| title_sort | managing risk and uncertainty a strategic approach |
| title_sub | a strategic approach |
| topic | Risk management Financial risk Corporations Finance Unsicherheit (DE-588)4186957-6 gnd Risikomanagement (DE-588)4121590-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Risk management Financial risk Corporations Finance Unsicherheit Risikomanagement |
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