An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making:
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
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2013
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 321 S. graph. Darst. |
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| adam_text | Titel: An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making
Autor: Kirchner, Marc
Jahr: 2013
Table of contents
Table of contents..................................................................................................II
List of figures.......................................................................................................VI
List of tables.......................................................................................................VIII
List of abbreviations............................................................................................IX
1 Introduction.......................................................................................................1
1.1 Subject and background...............................................................................1
1.2 Outline of the thesis......................................................................................5
2 Scenario Planning - Foundation and concept...............................................7
2.1 Corporate planning.......................................................................................7
2.1.1 Strategic planning and its role for strategy development..............................7
2.1.2 The necessity for a new approach to corporate planning...........................12
2.2 Scenario planning - foundations, terminology and conceptual aspects.....19
2.2.1 Scenarios - origins, characteristics and field of application.......................19
2.2.2 Definitions and perspectives of scenario planning......................................26
2.2.3 Approaches for scenario planning..............................................................32
2.2.4 Scenario planning process.........................................................................51
2.2.4.1 The ideal-typical scenario planning process and its elements.............51
2.2.4.2 The scenario planning methodology of Wulf et al................................57
3 Existing research on the effects of scenario planning................................64
3.1 Scenario planning and corporate performance...........................................65
3.1.1 The concept of corporate performance......................................................65
3.1.2 Quantitative studies....................................................................................67
3.1.3 Case-based evaluations.............................................................................67
3.1.4 Overall assessment....................................................................................69
3.2 Scenario planning and decision making.....................................................72
3.2.1 Measuring scenario planning effects using decision making quality...........72
3.2.1.1 The link between decisions and performance......................................73
3.2.1.2 Decisions and the decision making process........................................74
3.2.1.3 Environmental uncertainty....................................................................75
3.2.1.4 Cognitive limitations and cognitive biases............................................ 78
3.2.2 Existing analyses into decision making effects of scenario planning..........82
3.3 Research gap and research question.........................................................88
4 Linking scenario to strategic decision making............................................93
4.1 General research design............................................................................93
4.1.1 Research Phase 1 - Development of a framework....................................93
4.1.2 Research Phase 2 - Test methods for the proposed framework................96
4.2 Framework.................................................................................................98
4.2.1 Criteria to be fulfilled by a model................................................................98
4.2.1.1 Properties of a theory...........................................................................99
4.2.1.2 Assessment scheme..........................................................................103
4.2.2 Search for frameworks.............................................................................106
4.2.2.1 General search process.....................................................................106
4.2.2.2 Search in academic periodicals.........................................................108
4.2.2.3 Search in PhD theses........................................................................111
4.2.3 Identified frameworks...............................................................................114
4.2.3.1 Overview ..........................................................................................114
4.2.3.2 The perspective of Schoemaker........................................................115
4.2.3.3 The perspective of Kuhn/Sniezek......................................................116
4.2.3.4 The perspective of Phelps/Chan/Kapsalis..........................................118
4.2.3.5 The perspective of Chermack............................................................119
4.2.3.6 The perspective of Nicol.....................................................................123
4.2.3.7 The perspective of Chermack/van der Merwe/Lynham......................124
4.2.3.8 The perspective of Lyons...................................................................125
4.2.3.9 The perspective of Frittaion................................................................128
4.2.3.10 Comparison of frameworks and selection of a model.........................129
4.3 Specification of the framework.................................................................132
4.3.1 Approach for specification........................................................................133
4.3.2 Learning, Mental Models and Decision Making........................................136
4.3.2.1 The phenomenon of learning.............................................................136
4.3.2.2 Categorizing learning.........................................................................138
4.3.2.3 Verbal knowledge..............................................................................143
4.3.2.4 Mental models....................................................................................144
4.3.2.5 Metacognition.....................................................................................149
4.3.2.6 Findings from the analysis of cognitive learning.................................151
4.3.2.7 Decisions ..........................................................................................153
4.3.3 Specifying the level of analysis.................................................................159
4.3.4 Summary implications for the search for test methods.........................163
4.3.4.1 Specifications derived from the model...............................................163
4.3.4.2 A revised causal framework for the effects of scenario planning on
firm performance................................................................................164
5 An integrated test instrument......................................................................168
5.1 The search for established empirical assessment methods.....................168
5.1.1 Overall approach......................................................................................168
5.1.1.1 Initial situation....................................................................................168
5.1.1.2 Course of action.................................................................................170
5.1.2 Preparation of the search.........................................................................172
5.1.2.1 Scope of analysis...............................................................................172
5.1.2.2 Sources and search mode.................................................................179
5.1.2.3 Identification criteria...........................................................................184
5.1.2.4 Selection criteria for identified methods.............................................188
5.1.3 Search results..........................................................................................191
5.1.3.1 Long list and short list........................................................................192
5.1.3.2 Identified methods..............................................................................196
5.1.3.3 Final selection of test procedures......................................................201
5.1.4 Detailed descriptions of selected test procedures....................................203
5.1.4.1 Measuring verbal knowledge - The method of Gray/Meister (2004).. 203
5.1.4.2 Measuring mental models - The method of Baron/Ensley (2006).....208
5.1.4.3 Measuring decision quality - The method of Posavac et al. (2010)... 211
5.1.4.4 Summary ..........................................................................................214
5.2 An integrated test procedure....................................................................218
5.2.1 Characteristics of the integrated assessment method..............................218
5.2.1.1 Hypotheses........................................................................................218
5.2.1.2 Setting and test subjects....................................................................222
5.2.1.3 Instruments and procedure................................................................225
5.2.2 Enhancing the measurement of verbal knowledge...................................230
5.2.3 Application design: scenario planning for power generation....................235
5.2.3.1 Assumed setting................................................................................235
5.2.3.2 Instruments........................................................................................236
6 Conclusion....................................................................................................241
6.1 Summary of the conducted research........................................................241
6.2 Contributions to the research in the scenario planning field.....................246
6.3 Limitations and necessity for future research...........................................247
Appendixes........................................................................................................251
Bibliography......................................................................................................271
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| spelling | Kirchner, Marc Verfasser (DE-588)1044937408 aut An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making submitted by Marc Kirchner 2013 X, 321 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Leipzig, Handelshochsch., Diss., 2013 Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd rswk-swf Strategische Planung (DE-588)4309237-8 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 s Strategische Planung (DE-588)4309237-8 s Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=027060574&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Kirchner, Marc An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd Strategische Planung (DE-588)4309237-8 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd |
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| title | An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making |
| title_auth | An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making |
| title_exact_search | An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making |
| title_full | An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making submitted by Marc Kirchner |
| title_fullStr | An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making submitted by Marc Kirchner |
| title_full_unstemmed | An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making submitted by Marc Kirchner |
| title_short | An empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making |
| title_sort | an empirical measurement approach for the effects of scenario planning on managerial decision making |
| topic | Szenario (DE-588)4194332-6 gnd Strategische Planung (DE-588)4309237-8 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Szenario Strategische Planung Entscheidungsfindung Hochschulschrift |
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