Decision making with the analytic network process: economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York [u.a.]
Springer
2013
|
| Edition: | 2. ed. |
| Series: | International series in operations research & management science
195 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVII, 363 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9781461472780 |
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MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Decision making with the analytic network process |b economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks |c by Thomas L. Saaty ; Luis G. Vargas |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Decision Making with the Analytic Network Process
Autor: Saaty, Thomas L
Jahr: 2013
Contents
1 The Analytic Network Process.......................... 1
1 Introduction..................................... 1
1.1 World Chess Championship Outcome Validation
of Measurement in a Hierarchy:
Karpov-Korchnoi Match........................ 5
2 The Analytic Network Process (ANP)................... 5
3 The Supermatrix of a Feedback System
(Saaty 2001a, b, 2005).............................. 9
4 The Control Hierarchy and What Question to Ask.......... 11
5 The Benefits, Costs, Opportunities and Risks
and Their Merit Ratings............................. 12
6 Priorities in the Supermatrix.......................... 13
7 On the Limit Supermatrix and its Cesaro Sum............. 15
8 Rating......................................... 18
9 Two Examples of Estimating Market Share............... 20
9.1 Airline Example (2005)........................ 20
9.2 Wine Example (2005)......................... 22
10 Group Decision Making............................. 23
10.1 How to Aggregate Individual Judgments............ 23
10.2 On the Construction of Group Choice
from Individual Choices........................ 25
10.3 Cardinal Preference Relations.................... 27
10.4 Absolute Cardinal Preference Relations............. 29
Appendix.......................................... 37
References......................................... 39
2 Forecasting the Resurgence of the U. S. Economy in 2001:
An Expert Judgment Approach......................... 41
1 Introduction..................................... 41
2 On the Role of Judgment in Economic Forecasting.......... 41
3 The Setting: An Economic Slowdown After Years
of Expansion.................................... 42
4 A Holarchy Approach.............................. 44
4.1 Decomposition of the Problem................... 44
4.2 Pairwise Comparison.......................... 45
5 Producing the Forecast of the Recovery.................. 49
6 An ANP Approach................................ 49
6.1 ANP Structures.............................. 50
6.2 Predictions................................. 54
6.3 Analysis................................... 55
7 Conclusion...................................... 57
References......................................... 72
3 An Analytic Network Process Model for Financial-Crisis
Forecasting........................................ 75
1 Introduction..................................... 75
2 The ANP Financial Crisis Model Structure............... 76
3 Building the ANP Financial Crisis Model................ 78
4 The 1991 U. S. Banking Crisis........................ 87
5 Conclusion...................................... 91
References......................................... 91
4 Outsourcing a Firm s Application Development Group........ 93
1 Introduction..................................... 93
2 The Model...................................... 94
3 BOCR Priorities.................................. 103
4 Results......................................... 112
5 Sensitivity Analysis................................ 112
6 Where to Outsource............................... 112
Bibliography........................................ 116
5 ANWR: Artie National Wildlife Refuge an ANP
Validation Example.................................. 119
1 Introduction..................................... 119
2 BOCR Model for ANWR............................ 120
3 Results......................................... 131
4 Conclusion and Sensitivity Analyses.................... 131
6 The Ford Explorer Case............................... 133
1 Introduction..................................... 133
2 Creating the Model................................ 134
2.1 Alternatives................................ 134
2.2 Cluster Definitions............................ 134
2.3 Procedure.................................. 136
3 Benefits Model................................... 136
3.1 Economic Benefits Clusters, Links and Judgments...... 136
3.2 Social Benefits Clusters, Links and Judgments........ 138
3.3 Synthesis of Judgments in the Benefits Model........ 140
4 Costs Model..................................... 141
4.1 Economic Costs Clusters, Links and Judgments....... 141
4.2 Political Costs Clusters, Links and Judgments......... 144
4.3 Social Costs Clusters, Links and Judgments.......... 146
4.4 Synthesis of Judgments in the Costs Model.......... 148
5 Risks Model..................................... 148
5.1 Economic Risks Clusters, Links and Judgments....... 149
5.2 Social Risks Clusters, Links and Judgments.......... 151
5.3 Synthesis of Judgments in the Risks Model.......... 153
6 Ratings and Synthesis.............................. 153
7 Sensitivity Analysis................................ 154
Bibliography........................................ 157
Synthesis of Complex Criteria Decision Making: A Case
Towards a Consensus Agreement for a Middle East
Conflict Resolution................................... 159
1 Introduction..................................... 159
2 Background..................................... 161
3 Methodology.................................... 162
4 Structuring the ANP Model for the Middle East
Conflict Resolution................................ 164
4.1 Merits.................................... 168
4.2 The Benefits Subnet........................... 168
4.3 The Costs Subnet............................ 169
4.4 The Opportunities Subnet....................... 170
4.5 The Risk Subnet............................. 170
4.6 Alternatives................................ 171
5 Prioritization..................................... 173
5.1 Strategic Criteria and Their Priorities............... 173
5.2 BOCR Merits and Their Priorities................. 174
5.3 Decision Networks............................ 175
6 Synthesis of the BOCR Merits........................ 178
7 Sensitivity Analysis................................ 182
8 Conclusions..................................... 182
References......................................... 183
U. S. Energy Security................................. 185
1 Introduction..................................... 185
2 ANP Model Description............................. 188
2.1 BOCR Model............................... 188
2.2 Strategic Rating Model......................... 197
2.3 Alternatives Model........................... 199
3 Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks Model............ 199
3.1 Benefits Model.............................. 200
3.2 Opportunities Model.......................... 200
3.3 Costs Model................................ 202
3.4 Risks Model................................ 202
4 BOCR/Alternative Analysis.......................... 203
5 Model Results.................................... 205
6 Sensitivity Analysis................................ 205
6.1 Benefits................................... 205
6.2 Opportunities............................... 206
6.3 Costs..................................... 208
6.4 Risks..................................... 209
7 Conclusion...................................... 209
References......................................... 210
9 Stabilizing Social Security for the Long-Term............... 213
1 Introduction..................................... 213
2 Strategic Criteria.................................. 214
3 Alternatives..................................... 215
4 Benefits/Opportunities/Costs/Risk...................... 216
5 Results......................................... 226
6 Sensitivity Analysis................................ 228
7 Conclusion...................................... 230
Appendix Schedules................................... 230
Bibliography........................................ 232
10 When Shall Poland Enter the Euro Zone?.................. 235
1 Introduction..................................... 235
2 Conditions for Euro Zone Membership: Convergence
Criteria Defined by the Maastricht Treaty................ 238
3 Poland s Economic Position Relative to Other Euro Zone
Countries and Those Aspiring to Join the European Union..... 239
4 Prioritization of ANP Model Control Criteria for Poland s
Entry into the Euro Zone............................ 242
5 Decision Subnet Analysis for Each Selected Control
Criterion BOCR.................................. 242
6 Final Conclusions................................. 251
References......................................... 252
11 The Conflict Between China and Taiwan................... 255
1 Introduction..................................... 255
2 Possible Alternatives............................... 255
3 BOCR Model.................................... 256
3.1 Strategic Criteria............................. 256
3.2 Control Criteria.............................. 257
3.3 Benefits................................... 257
3.4 Opportunities............................... 260
3.5 Costs..................................... 261
3.6 Risks..................................... 264
4 Overall Synthesized Results.......................... 266
5 Sensitivity Analysis................................ 267
6 Conclusions..................................... 270
12 U. S. Response to North Korean Nuclear Threat............. 271
1 Introduction..................................... 271
2 Alternative Courses of Action......................... 271
3 Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks................. 273
3.1 Benefits Subnet.............................. 273
3.2 Opportunities Subnet.......................... 277
3.3 Costs and Risks Subnets........................ 277
4 Rating Benefits, Opportunities, Costs and Risks............ 277
5 Results and Sensitivity Analysis....................... 282
6 Sensitivity Analysis................................ 292
7 Conclusion...................................... 294
13 Criteria for Evaluating Group Decision-Making Methods...... 295
1 Introduction..................................... 295
2 Criteria for Group Decision Making Methods.............. 296
2.1 Group Maintenance: Leadership Effectiveness........ 298
2.2 Group Maintenance: Learning.................... 299
2.3 Problem Abstraction: Scope..................... 299
2.4 Problem Abstraction: Development of Alternatives..... 299
2.5 Structure: Breadth............................ 300
2.6 Structure: Depth............................. 300
2.7 Analysis: Faithfulness of Judgments................ 300
2.8 Analysis: Breadth and Depth of Analysis (What If)..... 301
2.9 Fairness: Cardinal Separation of Alternatives......... 301
2.10 Fairness: Prioritizing of Group Members............ 301
2.11 Fairness: Consideration of Other Actors
and Stakeholders............................. 302
2.12 Scientific and Mathematical Generality............. 302
2.13 Applicability to Intangibles...................... 302
2.14 Psychophysical Applicability..................... 302
2.15 Applicability to Conflict Resolution................ 303
2.16 Validity of the Outcome (Prediction)............... 303
3 Group Decision Making Methods...................... 303
3.1 Structuring................................. 303
3.2 Ordering and Ranking......................... 304
3.3 Structuring and Measuring...................... 305
4 Evaluation of the Methods on the Criteria................ 307
4.1 Group Maintenance: Leadership Effectiveness........ 307
4.2 Group Maintenance: Learning.................... 307
4.3 Problem Abstraction: Scope..................... 311
4.4 Problem Abstraction: Development of Alternatives..... 312
4.5 Structure: Breadth............................ 312
4.6 Structure: Depth............................. 313
4.7 Analysis: Faithfulness of Judgments................ 313
4.8 Breadth and Depth of Analysis (Analysis)........... 313
4.9 Fairness: Cardinal Separation of Alternatives......... 314
4.10 Fairness: Prioritizing Group Members.............. 314
4.11 Fairness: Consideration of Other Actors
and Stakeholders............................. 314
4.12 Scientific and Mathematical Generality............. 315
4.13 Applicability to Intangibles...................... 315
4.14 Psychophysical Applicability..................... 316
4.15 Applicability to Conflict Resolution................ 316
4.16 Validity of the Outcome (What If)................. 316
5 Conclusion...................................... 317
References......................................... 317
14 An Innovative Orders-of-Magnitude Approach
to AHP-Based Multicriteria Decision Making:
Prioritizing Divergent Intangible Humane Acts.............. 319
1 Introduction..................................... 319
2 Decision Making Using the New Orders-of-Magnitude
AHP Model..................................... 320
2.1 A New AHP Model for Comparing
Heterogeneous Elements........................ 321
3 The Importance of Valuing Activities Contributed by People . . . 324
3.1 Need Rating Intangible Contribution to Improve
Life Quality................................ 324
3.2 On Quantifying the Relative Value of Altruistic Acts . . . 325
3.3 Non-monetary Units Already Used in Parts
of Our World............................... 326
4 Identifying Criteria and Alternatives for the Proposed
AHP Model..................................... 327
4.1 The Evaluation Criteria........................ 328
4.2 Categorization of Clusters....................... 329
4.3 Altruistic Alternatives......................... 332
5 Applying the New AHP Model........................ 333
5.1 Pairwise Comparison.......................... 333
5.2 Results: The Value of Benevolent Acts............. 340
6 Conclusions..................................... 341
References......................................... 342
15 Sensitivity Analysis in the Analytic Hierarchy Process......... 345
1 Introduction..................................... 345
2 Literature Review................................. 346
2.1 Sensitivity Analysis of Judgments................. 346
2.2 Sensitivity Analysis of Priorities.................. 347
3 Problem Complexity............................... 347
4 Stability of the ANP Solution......................... 348
4.1 Binary Classification.......................... 349
4.2 Core Stability............................... 351
4.3 Solution Stability............................. 352
5 An Example..................................... 354
6 Conclusions and Further Research...................... 358
References......................................... 359
Index................................................ 361
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-10T00:39:58Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9781461472780 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Saaty, Thomas L. 1926-2017 Verfasser (DE-588)170201198 aut Decision making with the analytic network process economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks by Thomas L. Saaty ; Luis G. Vargas 2. ed. New York [u.a.] Springer 2013 XVII, 363 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier International series in operations research & management science 195 Analytic Hierarchy Process (DE-588)4225065-1 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 s Analytic Hierarchy Process (DE-588)4225065-1 s DE-604 Vargas, Luis G. Verfasser (DE-588)170433722 aut Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-4614-7279-7 International series in operations research & management science 195 (DE-604)BV011630976 195 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026090623&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Saaty, Thomas L. 1926-2017 Vargas, Luis G. Decision making with the analytic network process economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks International series in operations research & management science Analytic Hierarchy Process (DE-588)4225065-1 gnd Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4225065-1 (DE-588)4191815-0 |
| title | Decision making with the analytic network process economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks |
| title_auth | Decision making with the analytic network process economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks |
| title_exact_search | Decision making with the analytic network process economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks |
| title_full | Decision making with the analytic network process economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks by Thomas L. Saaty ; Luis G. Vargas |
| title_fullStr | Decision making with the analytic network process economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks by Thomas L. Saaty ; Luis G. Vargas |
| title_full_unstemmed | Decision making with the analytic network process economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks by Thomas L. Saaty ; Luis G. Vargas |
| title_short | Decision making with the analytic network process |
| title_sort | decision making with the analytic network process economic political social and technological applications with benefits opportunities costs and risks |
| title_sub | economic, political, social and technological applications with benefits, opportunities, costs and risks |
| topic | Analytic Hierarchy Process (DE-588)4225065-1 gnd Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Analytic Hierarchy Process Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=026090623&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV011630976 |
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