Public policy in an uncertain world: analysis and decisions
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Cambridge, Mass.
Harvard Univ. Press
2013
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Beschreibung: | XI, 199 Seiten |
| ISBN: | 9780674066892 |
Internformat
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Manski, Charles F. |d 1948- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)128388447 |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Public policy in an uncertain world |b analysis and decisions |c Charles F. Manski |
| 264 | 1 | |a Cambridge, Mass. |b Harvard Univ. Press |c 2013 | |
| 300 | |a XI, 199 Seiten | ||
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| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references and index | ||
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| 650 | 0 | 7 | |a Politikfeldanalyse |0 (DE-588)4136709-1 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Preface
xiii
Introduction
1
Rumsfeld and the Limits to Knowledge
1
Using Policy Analysis to Inform Decisions
2
Organization of the Book
4
I Policy Analysis
1
Policy Analysis with Incredible Certitude
11
1.1
The Logic and Credibility of Policy Analysis
11
1.2
Incentives for Certitude
13
Support for Certitude in Philosophy of Science
1.3
Conventional Certitudes
15
CBO Scoring of Pending Legislation
Scoring the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of
2010;
Credible Interval Scoring; Can Congress Cope with Uncertainty?
British Norms
1.4
Dueling Certitudes
23
The RAND and IDA Reports on Illegal Drug Policy
The National Research Council Assessment
1.5
Conflating Science and Advocacy
27
Friedman and Educational Vouchers
1.6
Wishful Extrapolation
30
Selective Incapacitation
Contents
Extrapolation
from Randomized
Experiments:
The FDA Drug
Approval Process
The Study Population and the Population of Interest;
The Experimental Treatments and the Treatments of Interest; The
Outcomes Measured in Experiments and the Outcomes of
Interest; The FDA and Conventional Certitude
Campbell and the Primacy of Internal Validity
1.7
Illogical Certitude
37
Heritability
What Does More Important Mean?;
Heritability
and Social Policy;
Gene Measurement
1.8
Media Overreach
44
The Case for
$320,000
Kindergarten Teachers
Peer Review and Credible Reporting
Predicting Policy Outcomes
47
2.1
Deterrence and the Death Penalty
48
Estimates Using Data on Homicide Rates across States and Years
2.2
Analysis of Treatment Response
51
Statistical Inference and Identification
2.3
Predicting Outcomes under Policies That Mandate a
Treatment
53
Sentencing and Recidivism
Background; Our Analysis; Analysis Assuming Individualistic
Treatment Response; Numerical Findings; Choosing a Policy
2.4
Identical Treatment Units
59
Before-and-After Studies
Difference-in-Dif
ferences
Studies
Employment in Fast-Food Restaurants and the Minimum Wage
2.5
Identical Treatment Groups
63
Experiments with Random Assignment of Treatments
The Gold Standard
2.6
Randomized Experiments in Practice
67
Extrapolation
Compliance
The Illinois Unemployment Insurance Experiment; Random
Compliance; intention-to-Treat
The Mixing Problem
Extrapolation from the Perry Preschool Project
Social Interactions
Contents h
Local and Global Interactions
Credible Analysis of Experimental Data
2.7
Random Treatment Choice in Observational Studies
77
Rational Treatment Choice and Selection Bias
Outcome Optimization with Perfect Foresight
Regression Discontinuity Analysis
2.8
Modeling Rational Treatment Choice
81
Outcome Optimization as a Model of Sentencing
Distributional Assumptions
3
Predicting Behavior
85
3.1
Income Taxation and Labor Supply
86
The Theory of Labor Supply
Empirical Analysis
Basic Revealed-Preference Analysis
Illustration: Labor Supply under Progressive and Proportional Taxes
3.2
Discrete Choice Analysis
93
Random Utility Model Representation of Behavior; Attribute
Representation of Alternatives and Decision Makers; Analysis with
Incomplete Attribute Data; Practicality
College Choice in America
Predicting the Enrollment Effects of Student Aid Policy; Power and
Price of the Analysis
Discrete Choice Analysis Today
3.3
Predicting Behavior under Uncertainty
99
How Do Youth Infer the Returns to Schooling?
How Do Potential Criminals Perceive Sanctions Regimes?
Measuring Expectations
Pill, Patch, or Shot?
3.4
Perspectives on Rational Choice
102
yls-Z/Rationality
Bounded Rationality
Biases and Heuristics
Widespread Irrationality or Occasional Cognitive Illusions?
The Common Thread Is Certitude
II Policy Decisions
4
Planning with Partial Knowledge
115
4.1
Treating X-Pox
116
Contents
4.2 Elements
of Decision Theory
116
States of Nature
The Welfare Function
Welfare Functions in Studies of Optimal Income Taxation
The Mirrlees Study
4.3
Decision Criteria
121
Elimination of Dominated Actions
Weighting States and the Expected Welfare Criterion
Criteria for Decision Making under Ambiguity
Maximin; Minimax Regret
Using Different Criteria to Treat X-Pox
4.4
Search Profiling with Partial Knowledge of Deterrence
125
4.5
Vaccination with Partial Knowledge of Effectiveness
127
Background
Internal and External Effectiveness
The Planning Problem
Partial Knowledge of External Effectiveness
Choosing a Vaccination Rate
4.6
Rational and Reasonable Decision Making
131
The Savage Argument for Consistency
Axiomatic Rationality and Actualist Rationality
Axiomatic and Actualist Perspectives on Subjective Probability
Ellsberg
on Ambiguity
The Quest for Rationality and the Search for Certitude
5
Diversified Treatment Choice
139
Diversification and Profiling
5.1
Allocating a Population to Two Treatments
141
The Welfare Function
A Status Quo Treatment and an Innovation
Expected Welfare; Maximin; Minimax Regret; Choosing Sentences for
Convicted Juvenile Offenders; Allocation of Wealth to a Safe and
Risky Investment
Risk-Averse Planning
5.2
Diversification and Equal Treatment of Equals
148
Ex Ante and Ex Post Equal Treatment
Combining Consequentialism and Deontological Ethics
5.3
Adaptive Diversification
150
Adaptive Minimax Regret
Implementation in Centralized Health Care Systems
Contents xi
The AMR Criterion and the Practice of Randomized Clinical
Trials
Fraction of the Population Receiving the Innovation; Group Subject to
Randomization; Measurement of Outcomes
5.4
Diversification across Time or Space
154
Diversification by Cohort
Laboratories of Democracy
5.5
Adaptive Partial Drug Approval
156
The Present Approval Process
Binary versus Partial Approval
Adaptive Partial Licensing
5.6
Collective Decision Processes
160
Majority-Rule Voting with Single-Peaked Preferences
The Credibility of Single-Peaked Preferences
Strategic Interactions
Learning and Heterogeneity of Policy Preferences
Bilateral Negotiations
Pareto Optimal Allocations; Incentive-Compatible Processes; Teacher
Evaluation in New York City
5.7
Laissez-Faire
169
Social Learning from Private Experiences
Laissez-Faire Learning and Adaptive Diversification
6
Policy Analysis and Decisions
173
Institutional Separation of Analysis and Decisions
Doing Better
Appendix A: Derivations for Criteria to Treat X-Pox
177
Appendix B: The Minimax-Regret Allocation to a Status Quo Treatment and
an Innovation
179
Appendix C: Treatment Choice with Partial Knowledge of Response to Both
Treatments
181
References
183
Index
193
|
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| author | Manski, Charles F. 1948- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)128388447 |
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| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| dewey-raw | 320.6 |
| dewey-search | 320.6 |
| dewey-sort | 3320.6 |
| dewey-tens | 320 - Political science (Politics and government) |
| discipline | Politologie |
| format | Book |
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| language | English |
| lccn | 2012014822 |
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| spelling | Manski, Charles F. 1948- Verfasser (DE-588)128388447 aut Public policy in an uncertain world analysis and decisions Charles F. Manski Cambridge, Mass. Harvard Univ. Press 2013 XI, 199 Seiten txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 gnd rswk-swf Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd rswk-swf Politische Planung (DE-588)4115587-7 gnd rswk-swf Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 s Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 s Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 s Politische Planung (DE-588)4115587-7 s DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Bamberg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025772980&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Manski, Charles F. 1948- Public policy in an uncertain world analysis and decisions Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 gnd Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Politische Planung (DE-588)4115587-7 gnd |
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| title | Public policy in an uncertain world analysis and decisions |
| title_auth | Public policy in an uncertain world analysis and decisions |
| title_exact_search | Public policy in an uncertain world analysis and decisions |
| title_full | Public policy in an uncertain world analysis and decisions Charles F. Manski |
| title_fullStr | Public policy in an uncertain world analysis and decisions Charles F. Manski |
| title_full_unstemmed | Public policy in an uncertain world analysis and decisions Charles F. Manski |
| title_short | Public policy in an uncertain world |
| title_sort | public policy in an uncertain world analysis and decisions |
| title_sub | analysis and decisions |
| topic | Politische Entscheidung (DE-588)4046531-7 gnd Politikfeldanalyse (DE-588)4136709-1 gnd Entscheidungsfindung (DE-588)4113446-1 gnd Politische Planung (DE-588)4115587-7 gnd |
| topic_facet | Politische Entscheidung Politikfeldanalyse Entscheidungsfindung Politische Planung |
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