Quitting certainties: a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Oxford
Oxford University Press
2013
|
| Edition: | 1. publ. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke |
| Physical Description: | XII, 345 S. |
| ISBN: | 9780199658305 9780199687602 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Titelbaum, Michael G. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Quitting certainties |b a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief |c Michael G. Titelbaum |
| 250 | |a 1. publ. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a Oxford |b Oxford University Press |c 2013 | |
| 300 | |a XII, 345 S. | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 500 | |a Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke | ||
| 502 | |a Zugl.: Berkeley, Univ. of California, Diss. | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Belief and doubt / Mathematical models | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Bayesian statistical decision theory | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Mathematisches Modell | |
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Record in the Search Index
| _version_ | 1804149509499912192 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Contents
Ackmwledgtnetîts
xi
List of Abbreviations ami Symbols
xiii
CLF Quick Reference
xiv
List of Tables
xv
Part I. Going Modeling
1.
Introduction
3
1.1.
What s to come
7
1.2.
Notes on the text
10
2.
Models and norms
11
2.1.
Bridge principles
12
2.2.
What we need to go modeling
17
2.3.
Our modeling methodology
24
Part II. Elements of CLF
3.
The modeling framework and what models represent
31
3.1.
Stories and claims
32
3.2.
Formal elements and representation scheme
37
3.2.1.
Time sets, languages, and credence functions
37
3.2.2.
Extrasystematic constraints
40
3.2.3.
A sample model
43
3.2.4.
Systematic constraints
45
3.2.5.
Consequences of these constraints
47
3.3.
Updating by Conditicmalizarion
50
4.
Applying CLF models to stories
55
4.1.
The standard interpretation s application scheme
56
4.2.
The evaluative standard
60
4.2.1.
Constraints as necessary conditions
60
4.2.2.
What the standard requires
62
4.2.3.
The nature of the evaluation
67
4.2.4.
The strength of the evaluation
70
4.3.
Model theory and alternative interpretations
75
4.3.1.
A model theory for CLF
75
4.3.2.
Ranged attitudes
79
4.3.3.
Further interpretations
82
Vili
CONTENTS
5.
Three common objections to Bayesian frameworks H4
5.1.
Counterexamples and modeling
4
5.2.
Judy Benjamin and expanding doxastic space 8o
5.2.1.
The Judy Benjamin Problem
^8
5.2.2.
The problem of new theories *2
5.3.
Ratio Formula objections ™
5.3.1.
Regularity and infinity
5.3.2.
Undefined conditional credences
Ю0
5.3.3.
Other domain limitations
Ю4
5.4.
Logical omniscience
Ю6
5.4.1.
Accommodating non-omniscience
1 08
5.4.2.
The costs of non-omniscience
Part III. Memory Loss
6.
Generalized Coiiditionalization
6.1.
Updating rales
6.1.1.
Memory-loss objections
6.1.2.
Limited
Conditionalìzation X2.Ò
6.1.3.
(GC) I27
6.2.
Applications of (GC)
129
6.2.1.
The lottery
129
6.2.2.
(GC) and Reflection I31
7.
Suppositional consistency
137
7.1.
The basic idea
138
7.2.
The
synchronie
solution
141
7.2.1.
Credal Uniqueness and conditional structure
141
7.2.2.
Conditional structure and interpersonal relations
147
7.3. Diachronie
doxastic commitments
149
7.3.1.
Denying Credal Uniqueness
7.3.2.
Making a commitment
7.3.3.
The structure of doxastic commitments
155
7.4.
Objections to
(CÍC)
157
7.4.1.
Unique updates
157
7.4.2.
Re-evaluating evidence
7.4.3.
Changing your mind
7.4.4.
Forgetting an earlier assignment
164
7.5.
(GC) and CLF s domain of applicability
166
Part IV. Context-Sensitivity
8.
The Proper Expansion Principle
171
H.L The problem
172
8.1.1.
Context-sensitivity and Conditionalization
172
CONTENTS
IX
8.1.2.
A strategy for Sleeping In
179
8.1.3.
Non-monotonicity under language change
181
«.2.
(PEP)
187
8.2.1.
Perfect expansions
187
8.2.2.
Proper expansions
191
8.3.
The Sarah Moss Problem
195
9.
Applying (PEP)
201
9.1.
Straightforward applications of (PEP)
203
9.1.1.
Self-location and The Die
203
9.1.2.
Shangri La internalized
205
9.1.3.
John Collins s prisoner example
207
9.2.
The Sleeping Beauty Problem
210
9.2.1.
Lewis s analysis
211
9.2.2.
Elga s analysis
212
9.2.3.
The solution
215
9.2.4.
Objections to this solution
217
9.2.5.
Modeling strategies
219
9.3.
Technicolor Beauty
223
9.3.1.
Analysis
223
9.3.2.
An objection to this solution
226
10.
Alternative updating schemes
230
10.1.
Halpern and Meacham
230
10.2.
Moss
238
10.3.
Stalnaker
243
11.
Indifference principles and quantum mechanics
250
11.1.
The Indifference Principle
251
11.1.
і
.
Elga s argument
251
11.1.2.
CLF and Duplication
254
11.1.3.
Colored papers overdrive
259
11.1.4.
Weathcrson s objections
263
11.2.
Fission and cloning
266
11.2.1.
Fission and diachronic consistency
266
11.2.2.
Three metaphysical accounts
268
11.2.3.
Cloning
271
11.3.
Quantum mechanics
273
11.3.1.
Everettian interpretations
273
11.3.2.
Everett and
Bayes
275
11.3.3.
Solutions
278
Part V. Conclusion
12.
A few loose ends
285
12.1.
Dutch Books
285
X CONTENTS
12.1.1.
Dutch Books and context-sensitivity
286
12.1.2.
Dutch Books and memory ioss
287
12.2.
Jeffrey
Conditionalizätion 289
12.2.1.
0C) and memory loss
292
12.2.2.
(JC) and context-sensitivity
294
12.3.
Defeaters
296
13.
The advantages of modeling
299
Appendices
A. Chapter
3
proofs
305
B. Chapter
4
proofs
310
C. Chapter
6
proofs
312
D. Chapter
7
proofs
318
E. Chapter
8
proofs
321
F. Chapter
9
proofs
328
Bibliography
332
Index
339
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| spelling | Titelbaum, Michael G. Verfasser aut Quitting certainties a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief Michael G. Titelbaum 1. publ. Oxford Oxford University Press 2013 XII, 345 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke Zugl.: Berkeley, Univ. of California, Diss. Belief and doubt / Mathematical models Bayesian statistical decision theory Mathematisches Modell Bayes-Netz (DE-588)4567228-3 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Bayes-Netz (DE-588)4567228-3 s DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025297006&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Titelbaum, Michael G. Quitting certainties a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief Belief and doubt / Mathematical models Bayesian statistical decision theory Mathematisches Modell Bayes-Netz (DE-588)4567228-3 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4567228-3 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Quitting certainties a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief |
| title_auth | Quitting certainties a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief |
| title_exact_search | Quitting certainties a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief |
| title_full | Quitting certainties a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief Michael G. Titelbaum |
| title_fullStr | Quitting certainties a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief Michael G. Titelbaum |
| title_full_unstemmed | Quitting certainties a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief Michael G. Titelbaum |
| title_short | Quitting certainties |
| title_sort | quitting certainties a bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief |
| title_sub | a Bayesian framework modeling degrees of belief |
| topic | Belief and doubt / Mathematical models Bayesian statistical decision theory Mathematisches Modell Bayes-Netz (DE-588)4567228-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Belief and doubt / Mathematical models Bayesian statistical decision theory Mathematisches Modell Bayes-Netz Hochschulschrift |
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