Everyday probability and statistics: health, elections, gambling and war
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
London
Imperial College Press
2012
|
| Edition: | 2. ed. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 278 S. Ill., graph. Darst. cm |
| ISBN: | 184816761X 9781848167612 1848167628 9781848167629 |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Everyday probability and statistics |b health, elections, gambling and war |c Michael M. Woolfson |
| 250 | |a 2. ed. | ||
| 264 | 1 | |a London |b Imperial College Press |c 2012 | |
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| 650 | 4 | |a Probabilities | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Statistics | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Everyday probability and statistics
Autor: Woolfson, Michael M
Jahr: 2012
Contents
Introduction 1
Chapter 1. The Nature of Probability 7
1.1. Probability and Everyday Speech..... 7
1.2. Spinning a Coin............... 8
1.3. Throwing or Spinning Other Objects ... 10
Problems 1 ..................... 12
Chapter 2. Combining Probabilities 15
2.1. Either-or Probability............ 15
2.2. Both-and Probability............. 17
2.3. Genetically Inherited Disease - Just
Gene Dependent.............. 18
2.4. Genetically Inherited Disease - Gender
Dependent.................. 21
2.5. A Dice Game - American Craps..... 23
Problems 2 ..................... 25
Chapter 3. A Day at the Races 27
3.1. Kinds of Probability............. 27
3.2. Betting on a Horse ............. 29
3.3. The Best Conditions for a Punter..... 33
Problem 3...................... 35
vi Everyday Probability and Statistics
Chapter 4. Making Choices and Selections 37
4.1. Children Leaving a Room......... 37
4.2. Picking a Team ............... 39
4.3. Choosing an Email Username....... 42
4.4. The UK National Lottery.......... 43
Problems 4..................... 47
Chapter 5. Non-Intuitive Examples of Probability 49
5.1. The Birthday Problem ........... 49
5.2. Crown and Anchor............. 53
5.3. To Switch or Not to Switch, That
is the Question................ 56
Problems 5..................... 58
Chapter 6. Probability and Health 59
6.1. Finding the Best Treatment......... 59
6.2. Testing Drugs................ 62
Problems 6..................... 68
Chapter 7. Combining Probabilities: The Craps
Game Revealed 71
7.1. A Simple Probability Machine....... 71
7.2. Pontoon: A Card Game........... 74
7.3. The Thrower s Chance of Winning
at American Craps ............. 76
Problems 7..................... 79
Chapter 8. The UK National Lottery, Loaded Dice
and Crooked Wheels 81
8.1. The Need to Test for Fairness....... 81
8.2. Testing Random Numbers......... 83
8.3. The UK National Lottery.......... 87
8.4. American Craps with Loaded Dice .... 89
Contents vii
8.5. Testing for a Loaded Die.......... 94
8.6. The Roulette Wheel............. 96
Problems 8 ..................... 98
Chapter 9. Block Diagrams 101
9.1. Variation in Almost Everything...... 101
9.2. A Shoe Manufacturer............ 102
9.3. Histogram Shapes.............. 105
9.4. Lofty and Shorty .............. 107
Problem 9...................... 110
Chapter 10. The Normal (or Gaussian) Distribution 111
10.1. Probability Distributions.......... Ill
10.2. The Normal Distribution.......... 113
10.3. The Variance and Standard Deviation . . 115
10.4. Properties of Normal Distributions .... 117
10.5. A Little Necessary Mathematics...... 119
10.5.1. Some special numbers....... 119
10.5.2. Powers of numbers ........ 120
10.6. The Form of the Normal Distribution . . . 122
10.7. Random and Systematic Errors...... 123
10.8. Some Examples of the Normal
Distribution................. 125
10.8.1. Electric light bulbs......... 125
10.8.2. People on trolleys and under-used
resources.............. 126
Problems 10..................... 128
Chapter 11. Statistics: The Collection and Analysis
of Numerical Data 129
11.1. Too Much Information........... 129
11.2. Another Way of Finding the Variance. . . 130
11.3. From Regional to National Statistics . . . 131
Problems 11..................... 133
viii Everyday Probability and Statistics
Chapter 12. The Poisson Distribution and Death
by Horse Kicks 135
12.1. Rare Events................. 135
12.2. Typing a Manuscript............ 137
12.3. The Poisson Distribution
as a Formula................. 139
12.4. Death by Horse Kicks............ 141
12.5. Some Other Examples of the Poisson
Distribution................. 143
12.5.1. Flying Bomb Attacks
on London ............. 143
12.5.2. Clustering of a disease....... 145
12.5.3. Some further examples...... 146
Problems 12..................... 147
Chapter 13. Predicting Voting Patterns 149
13.1. ElectionPolls ................ 149
13.2. Polling Statistics............... 150
13.3. Combining Polling Samples........ 153
13.4. Polling with More than
Two Parties.................. 154
13.5. Factors Affecting Polls and Voting .... 156
Problems 13..................... 158
Chapter 14. Taking Samples: How Many Fish
in the Pond? 159
14.1. Why Do We Sample?............ 159
14.2. Finding Out From Samples........ 160
14.3. An Illustrative Example .......... 162
14.4. General Comments on Sampling..... 164
14.5. Quality Control............... 164
14.6. How Many Fish in the Pond?....... 167
Problems 14..................... 168
Contents ix
Chapter 15. Differences: Rats and IQs 171
15.1. The Significance of Differences...... 171
15.2. Significantly Different - So What! .... 173
Problem 15 ..................... 176
Chapter 16. Crime is Increasing and Decreasing 177
16.1. Crime and the Reporting of Crime .... 177
16.2. The Trend for Overall Crime
in England and Wales............ 178
16.3. Vehicle Crime, Burglary
and Violent Crime.............. 180
16.4. Homicide................... 183
16.5. Crime and Politicians............ 185
Problem 16..................... 186
Chapter 17. My Uncle Joe Smoked 60 a Day 189
17.1. Genetics and Disease............ 189
17.2. The Incidence of Smoking in the UK . . . 191
17.3. The Smoking Lottery............ 193
Problem 17..................... 195
Chapter 18. Chance, Luck and Making Decisions 197
18.1. The Winds of Chance............ 197
18.2. Choices.................... 200
18.3. I Want a Lucky General........... 201
18.4. To Fight or Not to Fight, That
is the Question................ 203
18.5. The Mathematics of War.......... 206
Problem 18..................... 210
Chapter 19. Science and Society 211
19.1. What is Science?............... 212
19.2. Meteorology and Butterflies........ 214
x Everyday Probability and Statistics
19.2.1. A demonstration of chaos..... 215
19.2.2. Meteorological forecasting .... 218
19.3. Global Warming............... 223
19.3.1. The greenhouse effect....... 224
19.3.2. Greenhouse gases......... 228
19.3.3. The evidence for global
warming .............. 229
19.3.4. The controversy.......... 232
19.3.5. Can we know for certain?..... 233
19.3.6. Better safe than sorry....... 237
19.4. Nuclear Power Generation......... 239
19.5. Decision-Making Without Hard Data . . . 242
Problem 19..................... 244
Chapter 20. The Pensions Problem 245
20.1. A History of Life Expectancy....... 245
20.2. Supporting the Aged, and Others..... 249
20.3. The Age Structure of Populations..... 252
20.4. The Arithmetic of Pensions ........ 254
Problem 20..................... 258
Solutions to Problems 259
Index 275
|
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| physical | X, 278 S. Ill., graph. Darst. cm |
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| spelling | Woolfson, Michael M. 1927-2019 Verfasser (DE-588)133390403 aut Everyday probability and statistics health, elections, gambling and war Michael M. Woolfson 2. ed. London Imperial College Press 2012 X, 278 S. Ill., graph. Darst. cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Probabilities Statistics Statistik Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd rswk-swf Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4151278-9 Einführung gnd-content Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 s Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025242754&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Woolfson, Michael M. 1927-2019 Everyday probability and statistics health, elections, gambling and war Probabilities Statistics Statistik Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4064324-4 (DE-588)4056995-0 (DE-588)4151278-9 |
| title | Everyday probability and statistics health, elections, gambling and war |
| title_auth | Everyday probability and statistics health, elections, gambling and war |
| title_exact_search | Everyday probability and statistics health, elections, gambling and war |
| title_full | Everyday probability and statistics health, elections, gambling and war Michael M. Woolfson |
| title_fullStr | Everyday probability and statistics health, elections, gambling and war Michael M. Woolfson |
| title_full_unstemmed | Everyday probability and statistics health, elections, gambling and war Michael M. Woolfson |
| title_short | Everyday probability and statistics |
| title_sort | everyday probability and statistics health elections gambling and war |
| title_sub | health, elections, gambling and war |
| topic | Probabilities Statistics Statistik Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung (DE-588)4064324-4 gnd Statistik (DE-588)4056995-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Probabilities Statistics Statistik Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung Einführung |
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