Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems:
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| Main Authors: | , , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Santa Monica, CA
RAND
2005
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Physical Description: | XXIV, 156 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780833038081 0833038087 |
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MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
Preface
......................................................................
iii
Figures
......................................................................ix
Tables
.......................................................................xi
Summary
..................................................................xiii
Acknowledgments
.........................................................xxi
Acronyms
.................................................................xxiii
CHAPTER ONE
Introduction
.................................................................1
Objective
.....................................................................1
Definition and Scope
........................................................1
Descriptive Versus Prescriptive Research
....................................3
Approach in This Monograph
...............................................3
CHAPTER TWO
Human Decisionmaking
...................................................5
How to Think About Decisionmaking
......................................5
Images of the Decision Process
..............................................7
The Problems of Heuristics and Biases
......................................9
Availability Heuristic
.................................................... 10
Representativeness Heuristic
............................................ 10
Anchoring and Adjustment Heuristic
.................................. 11
Memory Biases
.......................................................... 13
Naïve
Statistics Biases
................................................... 13
Adjustment Biases
....................................................... 14
vi
Implications
of Modern Decision Science for Military Decision-Support Systems
Presentation Biases
...................................................... 14
Choice Biases
............................................................ 15
Confidence Biases
....................................................... 15
The Naturalistic School
.................................................... 15
Military and National-Security Operational Decisionmaking
............. 18
CHAPTER THREE
Classic Analysis Concepts and Their Evolution
........................23
Decision Analysis and Game Theory
......................................23
Decision Analysis and Utilities
..........................................23
Game Theory
...........................................................26
Systems Analysis
...........................................................28
History and Early References
...........................................28
Defining Characteristics
................................................29
Discussion
...............................................................30
Modern Examples
.......................................................31
Policy Analysis
.............................................................32
History and Early References
...........................................32
Defining Characteristics
................................................33
Discussion
...............................................................34
Modern Examples
.......................................................36
Summary of Classic Analysis Components of Decision Science
...........37
CHAPTER FOUR
Advanced Decision Science for Analysis
................................39
Introduction
...............................................................39
Structure of This Chapter
...............................................39
Understanding the System
.............................................. 39
The Problem of Deep Uncertainty
.....................................46
Interaction and Iteration
................................................46
A Revised Process Model in the Theory of Decision Support
..........47
Broad Methods
.............................................................48
Increasing Creativity and Imaginativeness in Planning
.................48
Enriching System Modeling
............................................ 52
Planning for Adaptiveness
.............................................. 57
Contents
vii
Organizing Around Command and Control and Related
Networking
..........................................................63
Enablers
....................................................................65
Multiresolution Modeling and Families of Models
.....................66
Agent-Based Modeling
.................................................. 67
Modular Composable Systems
..........................................68
Decision-Support Technology
..........................................69
CHAPTER FIVE
The Research Frontier: Reconciling Analytic and Intuitive
Considerations
........................................................77
Introduction
...............................................................77
Comparing Decisionmaking Paradigms
................................77
The Value of Synthesis
.................................................. 80
Elements of Synthesis
...................................................81
Improving Automated Decision Support
.................................. 83
Challenges
............................................................... 83
Concrete Suggestions for Design of Decision Support
................. 85
Balancing Cold and Story-Based Decision Support
.......................87
Decision Characteristics
................................................ 89
Decision-Environment Characteristics
.................................90
Decisionmaker Characteristics
..........................................91
General Recommendations
................................................91
CHAPTER SIX
Conclusions
...............................................................95
The Decisionmaking Component
.........................................95
The Analysis Component
..................................................96
APPENDIX
A. Debiasing an Air Campaign
.........................................99
B. Rethinking Families of Models
.....................................103
C. Further Discussion of Judgmental Bias and DSS
.................127
Bibliography
.............................................................133
This selective review of modern decision science and implications for
decision-support systems suggests ways to synthesize lessons from
research on heuristics and eliminating biases with lessons from research
on naturalistic decisionmaking. Additional topics include the use of
such modern tools as increasingly realistic simulations, multiresolution
modeling, and exploratory analysis to help decisionmakers choose flex¬
ible, adaptive, and robust strategies.
This product is part of the RAND Corporation monograph series.
RAND monographs present major research findings that address the
challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND monographs
undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research
quality and objectivity.
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-10T00:21:15Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780833038081 0833038087 |
| language | English |
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| spelling | Davis, Paul K. Verfasser aut Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Paul K.Davis ; Jonathan Kulick ; Michael Egner Santa Monica, CA RAND 2005 XXIV, 156 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 s Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 s DE-604 Kulick, Jonathan Verfasser aut Egner, Michael Verfasser aut Digitalisierung UB Passau application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025161211&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Passau application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=025161211&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
| spellingShingle | Davis, Paul K. Kulick, Jonathan Egner, Michael Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 gnd Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4169951-8 (DE-588)4191815-0 |
| title | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems |
| title_auth | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems |
| title_exact_search | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems |
| title_full | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Paul K.Davis ; Jonathan Kulick ; Michael Egner |
| title_fullStr | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Paul K.Davis ; Jonathan Kulick ; Michael Egner |
| title_full_unstemmed | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems Paul K.Davis ; Jonathan Kulick ; Michael Egner |
| title_short | Implications of modern decision science for military decision-support systems |
| title_sort | implications of modern decision science for military decision support systems |
| topic | Militärische Planung (DE-588)4169951-8 gnd Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem (DE-588)4191815-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Militärische Planung Entscheidungsunterstützungssystem |
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