Modelling the earth's climate: an epistemic perspective
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
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| Format: | Abschlussarbeit Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
2012
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| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | kostenfrei Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | Nebentitel: Der epistemische Status komplexer Klimamodelle |
| Beschreibung: | IV, 135 S. |
Internformat
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| 246 | 1 | 3 | |a Der epistemische Status komplexer Klimamodelle |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
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| adam_text |
IMAGE 1
CONTENTS
PREFACE 3
I. INTRODUCTION AND BACKGROUND 5
1. INTRODUCTION 7
1.1. T H E DEBATE 9
2. BASIC K N O W L E D G E 1 5
2.1. SHORT INTRODUCTION T O CLIMATE SCIENCE 15
2.1.1. THERMODYNAMICS 16
2.1.2. DYNAMICS 17
2.1.3. T H E PRIMITIVE EQUATIONS 18
2.2. BASIC KNOWLEDGE OF CLIMATE CHANGE 19
2.3. DEFINING CLIMATE MODEL 25
2.3.1. THEORY OF THE CLIMATE SYSTEM 25
2.3.2. CLIMATE MODELLING 26
2.4. SPECTRUM OF CLIMATE MODELS 34
II. EPISTEMIC PROBLEMS O F C L I M A T E M O D E L L I N G 3 9
3. PERFECT C L I M A T E M O D E L L I N G IS I M P O S S I B L E 4 1
3.1. FUNDAMENTAL UNCERTAINTY VERSUS MODEL UNCERTAINTY 43
3.2. FUNDAMENTAL UNCERTAINTY 44
3.2.1. FUNDAMENTAL CONSTRAINTS IN UNDERSTANDING THE CLIMATE SYSTEM:
NONLINEARITY 44
3.2.2. FUNDAMENTAL CONSTRAINTS IN UNDERSTANDING T H E CLIMATE SYSTEM:
OB SERVATIONAL CONSTRAINTS 47
3.3. BOON AND BANE OF PARAMETERISATION 48
3.4. USING A N D ABUSING MODEL TUNING 52
3.5. THE NEED FOR NUMERICAL SOLUTIONS 56
3.6. THEORY LADENNESS OF CLIMATE MODELS 58
3.6.1. REANALYSIS D A T A 61
3.6.2. PALEO D A T A 62
3.7. THE IMPOSSIBILITY OF FALSIFYING CLIMATE MODELS 62
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HTTP://D-NB.INFO/1024825701
IMAGE 2
CONTENTS
3.8. T H E SINGULARITY OF ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE 64
3.8.1. PREDICTION IN CLIMATE SCIENCE 66
III. HANDLING O F P R O B L E M S 7 3
4. VALIDATION IN NATURAL S C I E N C E S 7 5
4.1. TESTING IN NATURAL SCIENCE 76
4.1.1. CLIMATE MODELS AS EXPERIMENTS 78
4.1.2. SUCCESSFUL PREDICTIONS 79
5. M O D E L T E S T I N G 8 3
5.1. MODEL TESTING 83
5.1.1. TESTING IN GENERAL 83
5.1.2. PALEO D A T A 87
5.2. MODEL COMPARISON 88
5.2.1. INTRAMODEL COMPARISON 89
5.3. MODEL INTERCOMPARISON . 91
6. PROBABILITY IN C L I M A T E M O D E L L I N G 9 5
6.1. REASONS FOR APPLYING PROBABILITY 95
6.1.1. DETERMINISTIC VS. STOCHASTIC MODELLING 96
6.1.2. UNCERTAINTY * 99
6.2. STATISTICAL MODELLING 100
6.3. ENSEMBLE MODELLING 103
IV. CONCLUSION 1 0 5
7. RULES FOR DEALING W I T H C L I M A T E M O D E L S 1 0 7
7.1. COMMON SENSE RULES OF MODEL TUNING 108
7.1.1. . RULES OF MODEL TUNING 109
7.2. COMMON SENSE RULES 114
7.2.1. DEALING WITH UNCERTAINTY IN CLIMATE MODELLING 119
7.3. CONCLUSION A N D OUTLOOK 122
GLOSSARY 1 2 5
2 |
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| dewey-hundreds | 100 - Philosophy & psychology |
| dewey-ones | 120 - Epistemology, causation, humankind |
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| dewey-search | 120 |
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| dewey-tens | 120 - Epistemology, causation, humankind |
| discipline | Philosophie |
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| spelling | Otto, Friederike 1982- Verfasser (DE-588)1020716339 aut Modelling the earth's climate an epistemic perspective vorgelegt von Friederike Elly Luise Otto Der epistemische Status komplexer Klimamodelle 2012 IV, 135 S. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Nebentitel: Der epistemische Status komplexer Klimamodelle Berlin, Freie Univ., Diss., 2011 (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe urn:nbn:de:kobv:188-fudissthesis000000036254-5 http://www.diss.fu-berlin.de/diss/receive/FUDISS_thesis_000000036254 kostenfrei Volltext DNB Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024818184&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Otto, Friederike 1982- Modelling the earth's climate an epistemic perspective |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | Modelling the earth's climate an epistemic perspective |
| title_alt | Der epistemische Status komplexer Klimamodelle |
| title_auth | Modelling the earth's climate an epistemic perspective |
| title_exact_search | Modelling the earth's climate an epistemic perspective |
| title_full | Modelling the earth's climate an epistemic perspective vorgelegt von Friederike Elly Luise Otto |
| title_fullStr | Modelling the earth's climate an epistemic perspective vorgelegt von Friederike Elly Luise Otto |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelling the earth's climate an epistemic perspective vorgelegt von Friederike Elly Luise Otto |
| title_short | Modelling the earth's climate |
| title_sort | modelling the earth s climate an epistemic perspective |
| title_sub | an epistemic perspective |
| topic_facet | Hochschulschrift |
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