Managing country risk: a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis
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| Main Author: | |
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Boca Raton, Fla.
CRC Press
2012
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XXXI, 276 S. graph. Darst., Kt. |
| ISBN: | 9781466500471 |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Managing country risk
Autor: Wagner, Daniel
Jahr: 2012
List of Tables.......................................................xiii
List of Figures.......................................................xv
List of Maps........................................................xix
Preface............................................................xxi
Acknowledgments..................................................xxv
The Author.......................................................xxvii
Abbreviations.....................................................xxix
chapter 1-Country Risk in Perspective.................................1
Introduction..........................................................1
Insight into the Foundation of the Arab Spring............................2
How Political Change in MENA Is Impacting Country Risk Analysis........12
Perception versus Reality of Risk: Does Terrorism Negatively Impact
Foreign Direct Investment?............................................14
Empirical Studies Can Yield Contradictory Results....................15
The Impact of Perception on Investment Decisions........................18
Risk Management versus Profit Maximization........................20
Be Wary of Statistics...............................................20
What Statistics Say about the Global Recovery since 2009...............23
Managing Country Risk in the New Normal ...........................26
Notes...............................................................28
chapter 2-Foundations of Country Risk Management.....................31
Introduction.........................................................31
Economic Nationalism in Pakistan.....................................32
Extractive Enterprises Are Particularly Vulnerable....................33
The Danger of Focusing Too Much on Net Income.....................34
Bolivia s Mass Nationalizations.........................................34
The Importance of History.........................................35
Ramifications....................................................36
Papua New Guinea s Natural Resource Curse.............................37
It Takes Two to Tango.............................................38
Systemic Corruption Creates Risk...................................40
Lessons Unlearned................................................40
Defining Country Risk................................................42
Country versus Sovereign versus Political versus Transactional Risk.....43
How Banks Approach Transactional Risk Management................44
The Lessons of the Asia Crisis.......................................45
Elements of an Effective Risk Management Process....................46
The Boardroom Vacuum..............................................48
The Impact on Firm Performance...................................51
Separating Fact from Fiction...........................................52
Notes...............................................................53
chapter 3-Assessing Country Risk...................................55
Introduction.........................................................55
Information Sources..................................................57
Are Rating Agencies Ratings Worth Using?..............................59
Measuring Political Stability...........................................63
Comparing Indonesia and Vietnam.....................................68
Notes...............................................................73
chapter 4-Country Risk Assessment in Practice.........................75
Creating a Risk Management Framework................................75
Selecting Country Risk Management Tools..............................82
Economic Measures...............................................86
Mapping Out a Country Risk Analysis Methodology......................87
Alternative Measures of Country Risk...................................90
Corruption Perceptions Index......................................90
Democracy Index.................................................90
Freedom in the World.............................................91
Gini Coefficient...................................................92
Global Peace Index................................................93
Human Development Index........................................93
Youth Unemployment.............................................95
Conclusion..........................................................95
Notes...............................................................96
chapter 5-Political Risk Insurance...................................97
What Is Political Risk Insurance?.......................................97
Who Needs PRI?.................................................101
An Overview of Investment Insurance.................................101
Expropriation...................................................102
Forced Abandonment/Key Operator s Endangerment.................104
Financed-Asset Nonrepossession...................................105
Deprivation/Contingent Deprivation...............................105
Currency Inconvertibility/Nontransfer..............................105
Political Violence................................................108
Breach of Contract...............................................109
An Overview of Trade Insurance......................................110
Contract Frustration.............................................1ll
Non-Honoring of Letters of Credit.................................112
Wrongful Calling of Guarantees...................................112
Trade Disruption Insurance.......................................113
Other Categories.................................................113
Export Credit Insurance..........................................114
Underwriters and the Underwriting Process............................115
The Private Sector Players.........................................116
Chartis......................................................116
Lloyd s......................................................116
Sovereign....................................................117
Zurich......................................................117
Market Capacity.................................................117
Private Underwriters..........................................117
The Public Schemes...........................................117
The Underwriting Process.........................................118
Underwriting Trade Transactions...............................120
Underwriting Export Credit Transactions........................121
Premium Rates...............................................122
Pricing Methodology..........................................124
Recoveries...................................................124
Reinsurance.................................................125
Case Study: Assessing the Risk of a Power Plant in Indonesia..............125
Case Study......................................................127
The Project......................................................127
Technical/Financial Viability......................................128
Host Country Benefits.............................•..............128
Insurance Requirements..........................................128
Risk Assessment.................................................129
Expropriation................................................129
Currency Inconvertibility......................................131
Political Violence.............................................133
Breach of Contract............................................135
The Impact of the Asia Crisis and Lessons Learned.......................136
Notes..............................................................138
chapter 6-Tales from the Battle Zone................................141
How Easy It Is to Make Costly Mistakes................................141
A Telecommunications Company in Pakistan........................141
A Paper Company in Russia.......................................142
A Power Company in Brazil.......................................142
An Arab Oil Company in Saudi Arabia.............................142
An Oil Company in Russia........................................143
A Fast Food Chain in Palestine....................................144
A Media Enterprise in the Czech Republic...........................145
An Energy Company in Venezuela.................................145
A Technology Company in South Korea.............................146
A Bank in Ecuador...............................................146
A Pharmaceutical Company in Yugoslavia...........................147
An Oil Company in Peru..........................................147
A Power Company in Canada......................................147
The Failure of a Bank s Country Risk Management Program..............148
How the Program Was Revised....................................151
Underwriting Information........................................152
Creating an Operational Foundation................................153
Recoveries......................................................154
Note............................................................... 155
chapter 7-The Importance of Understanding China and Its Place in the World ... 157
Introduction........................................................157
Geopolitics with Chinese Characteristics............................... 158
China as the Aggressor-The Case of the Spratly Islands..................162
Asia Looks Nervously over Its Shoulder................................165
The Maturing Chinese-Saudi Arabian Alliance..........................168
FDI with Chinese Characteristics..................................171
China s Rare Earth Bravado...........................................177
China and the Power of the Dollar.................................179
China s Great Development Challenge................................180
China s Real Estate Syndrome.........................................182
The Enigma of China s Middle Class...................................185
Investor Beware.....................................................187
Notes..............................................................189
chapter 8-Shifting Pendulums, Pressing Concerns, and the State of the
World..............................................193
Introduction........................................................193
Brazil s and Turkey s Messages........................................194
Brazil s and Turkey s Nuclear Ambitions............................195
Rising Tension with Turkey........................................196
The Lesson to Be Learned.........................................196
Turkey s Foreign Policy Vision........................................197
Turkish Foreign Policy: Moderation in the Extreme...................198
Is Turkey Really Rethinking Its Place in the World?...................199
Upheaval in the Middle East: An Opportunity for Turkey.............200
The Folly of Brazil s Exceptionalism....................................202
To BRIC or Not to BRIC-That Is the Question......................203
Too Big for Its Britches............................................204
Pursuit of Autonomy versus an Adversarial Role.....................205
Aid Recipient and Provider........................................205
Its Own Worst Enemy............................................206
BRICs Form Unstable Foundation for Multilateral Action.................206
Iraq s Democratic Experiment.........................................208
Bolivia, Ecuador, and Nicaragua: Lofty Idealism versus Hard-Nosed
Politics..........................................................212
India s Ongoing Concerns about Pakistan and Afghanistan...............215
Globalization Will Not Change Some Things............................218
Notes..............................................................226
Appendix..........................................................229
Country Risk Management Dictionary of Key Terms.....................231
I. Country Risk Concepts............................................232
II. Political Risk Insurance...........................................249
Notes..............................................................259
Bibliography........................................................261
Index..............................................................265
List of Tables
TABLE 1 Percentage of Total Government Spending on Education.........5
TABLE 2 Food Subsidies as a Percent of GDP (1989-1999)................6
TABLE 3 Incidences of Political Instability (1970-1995)..................23
TABLE 4 Firm-Specific versus Country-Level Risks.....................43
TABLE 5 Greece s GDP Growth Rate and Déficit: 2000-2010.............61
TABLE 6 Comparative Developmental Indicators: 2010..................68
TABLE 7 Doing Business in Indonesia versus in Vietnam................71
TABLE 8 Two Grade-Based Rating Options............................83
TABLE 9 Risks versus Mitigants for Turkey............................84
TABLE 10 Measuring Event Probability...............................85
TABLE 11 Qualitative Assessment by Color Coding and Impact..........85
TABLE 12 Letter Ratings with General Définitions of Country Risk.......85
TABLE 13 Impact Matrix Using Number, Impact, and Color Ratings......86
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| spelling | Wagner, Daniel Verfasser aut Managing country risk a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis Daniel Wagner Boca Raton, Fla. CRC Press 2012 XXXI, 276 S. graph. Darst., Kt. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Country risk Investments, Foreign Economic forecasting Welt (DE-588)4065341-9 gnd rswk-swf Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd rswk-swf Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 gnd rswk-swf Länderrating (DE-588)4274326-6 gnd rswk-swf Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 s Welt (DE-588)4065341-9 s Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 s Länderrating (DE-588)4274326-6 s b DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe 978-1-4665-0048-8 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024778899&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Wagner, Daniel Managing country risk a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis Country risk Investments, Foreign Economic forecasting Welt (DE-588)4065341-9 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 gnd Länderrating (DE-588)4274326-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4065341-9 (DE-588)4137042-9 (DE-588)4114347-4 (DE-588)4274326-6 |
| title | Managing country risk a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis |
| title_auth | Managing country risk a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis |
| title_exact_search | Managing country risk a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis |
| title_full | Managing country risk a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis Daniel Wagner |
| title_fullStr | Managing country risk a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis Daniel Wagner |
| title_full_unstemmed | Managing country risk a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis Daniel Wagner |
| title_short | Managing country risk |
| title_sort | managing country risk a practitioner s guide to effective cross border risk analysis |
| title_sub | a practitioner's guide to effective cross-border risk analysis |
| topic | Country risk Investments, Foreign Economic forecasting Welt (DE-588)4065341-9 gnd Risikoanalyse (DE-588)4137042-9 gnd Länderrisiko (DE-588)4114347-4 gnd Länderrating (DE-588)4274326-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Country risk Investments, Foreign Economic forecasting Welt Risikoanalyse Länderrisiko Länderrating |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024778899&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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