Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems:
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| Main Authors: | , |
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| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Hoboken, New Jersey
Wiley
2011
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XXI, 477 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780470907566 |
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| 100 | 1 | |a Lee, John C. |e Verfasser |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems |c John C. Lee ; Norman J. McCormick |
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| adam_text | Titel: Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems
Autor: Lee, John C.
Jahr: 2011
CONTENTS
Preface xii
Permissions and Copyrights xiv
List of Tables xvi
List of Figures xviii
1 Risk and Safety of Engineered Systems 1
1.1 Risk and Its Perception and Acceptance............... 1
1.2 Overview of Risk and Safety Analysis................ 6
1.3 Two Historical Reactor Accidents .................. 8
1.4 Definition of Risk .......................... 9
1.5 Reliability, Availability, Maintainability, and Safety......... 10
1.6 Organization of the Book....................... 12
References.................................. 13
2 Probabilities of Events 15
2.1 Events ................................ 15
2.2 Event Tree Analysis and Minimal Cut Sets ............. 17
2.3 Probabilities ............................. 19
2.3.1 Interpretations of Probability ................ 19
2.3.2 Axiomatic Approach to Probabilities ............ 20
2.3.3 Intersection of Events .................... 21
2.3.4 Union of Events ....................... 22
2.3.5 Decomposition Rule for Probabilities............ 25
2.4 Time-Independent Versus Time-Dependent Probabilities...... 25
2.5 Time-Independent Probabilities ................... 26
2.5.1 Introduction......................... 26
2.5.2 Time-Independent Probability Distributions ........ 27
2.6 Normal Distribution ......................... 31
2.7 Reliability Functions......................... 35
2.8 Time-Dependent Probability Distributions.............. 41
2.8.1 Erlangian and Exponential Distributions .......... 42
2.8.2 Gamma Distribution..................... 43
2.8.3 Lognormal Distribution ................... 44
2.8.4 Weibull Distribution..................... 46
2.8.5 Generalized Bathtub Distribution............. 47
2.8.6 Selection of a Time-Dependent Probability Distribution . . 48
2.9 Extreme-Value Probability Distributions............... 50
2.10 Probability Models for Failure Analyses............... 52
References.................................. 53
Exercises .................................. 53
3 Reliability Data 59
3.1 Estimation Theory .......................... 59
3.1.1 Moment Estimators ..................... 60
3.1.2 Maximum Likelihood Estimators .............. 61
3.1.3 Maximum Entropy Estimators................ 64
3.1.4 Comparison of Estimators.................. 65
3.2 Bayesian Updating of Data...................... 65
3.2.1 Bayes Equation ....................... 65
3.2.2 Applications of the Bayes Equation............. 67
3.3 Central Limit Theorem and Hypothesis Testing........... 70
3.3.1 Interpretation of the Central Limit Theorem ........ 71
3.3.2 Hypothesis Testing with the Central Limit Theorem .... 72
3.4 Reliability Quantification....................... 74
3.4.1 Central Limit Theorem for Reliability Quantification .... 74
3.4.2 Engineering Approach for Reliability Quantification .... 76
3.4.3 x2-Distribution for Reliability Quantification ....... 77
3.4.4 Three-Way Comparison and Concluding Remarks ..... 78
References.................................. 80
Exercises .................................. 80
4 Reliability of Multiple-Component Systems 85
4.1 Series and Active-Parallel Systems ................. 86
4.1.1 Systems with Independent Components........... 86
4.1.2 Systems with Redundant Components ........... 88
4.1.3 Fail-to-Safety and Fail-to-Danger Systems ......... 90
4.2 Systems with Standby Components ................. 93
4.3 Decomposition Analysis....................... 96
4.4 Signal Flow Graph Analysis..................... 100
4.5 Cut Set Analysis . . ......................... 101
References.................................. 104
Exercises .................................. 104
5 Availability and Reliability of Systems with Repair 109
5.1 Introduction.............................. 109
5.2 Markov Method ........................... Ill
5.2.1 Markov Governing Equations................ Ill
5.2.2 Solution of Markov Governing Equations.......... 113
5.2.3 An Elementary Example................... 116
5.3 Availability Analyses......................... 118
5.3.1 Rules for Constructing Transition Rate Matrices ...... 118
5.3.2 Availability Transition Rate Matrices ............ 119
5.3.3 Time-Dependent Availability Examples........... 123
5.3.4 Steady-State Availability................... 127
5.4 Reliability Analyses ......................... 128
5.4.1 Reliability Transition Rate Matrices............. 129
5.4.2 Time-Dependent Reliability Examples ........... 130
5.4.3 Mean Time to Failure .................... 130
5.5 Additional Capabilities of Markov Models ............. 133
5.5.1 Imperfect Switching Between System States ........ 134
5.5.2 Systems with Nonconstant Hazard Rates .......... 136
References.................................. 137
Exercises .................................. 137
6 Probabilistic Risk Assessment 141
6.1 Failure Modes ............................ 142
6.2 Classification of Failure Events ................... 143
6.2.1 Primary, Secondary, and Command Failures ........ 143
6.2.2 Common Cause Failures................... 144
6.2.3 Human Errors ........................ 148
6.3 Failure Data ............................. 150
6.3.1 Hardware Failures ...................... 150
6.3.2 Human Errors ........................ 150
6.4 Combination of Failures and Consequences............. 152
6.4.1 Inductive Methods....................... 152
6.4.2 Event Tree Analysis ..................... 154
6.5 Fault Tree Analysis....... ................... 156
6.5.1 Introduction ......................... 156
6.5.2 Fault Tree Construction ................... 157
6.5.3 Qualitative Fault Tree Analysis ............... 157
6.5.4 Quantitative Fault Tree Analysis............... 160
6.5.5 Common Cause Failures and Fault Tree Analysis...... 165
6.6 Master Logic Diagram........................ 165
6.7 Uncertainty and Importance Analysis ................ 168
6.7.1 Types of Uncertainty in PRAs................ 168
6.7.2 Stochastic Uncertainty Analysis............... 169
6.7.3 Sensitivity and Importance Analysis ............ 170
References.................................. 172
Exercises.................................. 172
7 Computer Programs for Probabilistic Risk Assessment 179
7.1 Fault Tree Methodology oftheSAPHIRE Code........... 179
7.1.1 Gate Conversion and Tree Restructuring .......... 180
7.1.2 Simplification of the Tree .................. 180
7.1.3 Fault Tree Expansion and Reduction ............ 182
7.2 Fault and Event Tree Evaluation with the SAPHIRE Code ..... 183
7.3 Other Features of the SAPHIRE Code................ 185
7.4 Other PRA Codes .......................... 185
7.5 Binary Decision Diagram Algorithm................. 187
7.5.1 Basic Formulation oftheBDD Algorithm.......... 187
7.5.2 Generalization of the BDD Formulation........... 189
7.5.3 Zero-Suppressed BDD Algorithm and the FTREX Code . . 193
References.................................. 194
Exercises .................................. 195
Nuclear Power Plant Safety Analysis 197
8.1 Engineered Safety Features of Nuclear Power Plants ........ 197
8.1.1 Pressurized Water Reactor.................. 198
8.1.2 Boiling Water Reactor.................... 210
8.2 Accident Classification and General Design Goals ......... 215
8.2.1 Plant Operating States.................... 217
8.2.2 Accident Classification in 10 CFR 50............ 217
8.2.3 General Design Criteria and Safety Goals.......... 219
8.3 Design Basis Accident: Large-Break LOCA ............ 220
8.3.1 Typical Sequence of a Cold-Leg LBLOCA in PWR .... 221
8.3.2 ECCS Specifications..................... 225
8.3.3 Code Scaling, Applicability, and Uncertainty Evaluation . . 227
8.4 Severe (Class 9) Accidents...................... 231
8.5 Anticipated Transients Without Scram................ 233
8.5.1 History and Background of the ATWS Issue ........ 233
8.5.2 Resolution of the ATWS Issues ............... 235
8.5.3 Power Coefficients of Reactivity in LWRs ......... 237
8.6 Radiological Source and Atmospheric Dispersion.......... 241
8.6.1 Radiological Source Term.................. 242
8.6.2 Atmospheric Dispersion of Radioactive Plume....... 243
8.6.3 Simple Models for Dose Rate Calculation.......... 247
8.7 Biological Effects of Radiation Exposure .............. 250
References.................................. 252
Exercises .................................. 254
Major Nuclear Power Plant Accidents and Incidents 259
9.1 Three Mile Island Unit 2 Accident.................. 260
9.1.1 Sequence of the Accident-March 1979 .......... 260
9.1.2 Implications and Follow-Up of the Accident ........ 260
9.2 PWR In-Vessel Accident Progression ................ 263
9.2.1 Core Uncovery and Heatup ................. 265
9.2.2 Cladding Oxidation ..................... 266
9.2.3 Clad Melting and Fuel Liquefaction............. 268
9.2.4 Molten Core Slumping and Relocation ........... 270
9.2.5 Vessel Breach ........................ 271
9.3 Chernobyl Accident ......................... 272
9.3.1 Cause and Nature of the Accident-April 1986....... 272
9.3.2 Sequence of the Accident .................. 274
9.3.3 Estimate of Energy Release in the Accident......... 275
9.3.4 Accident Consequences ................... 275
9.3.5 Comparison of the TMI and Chernobyl Accidents ..... 276
9.4 Fukushima Station Accident..................... 277
9.4.1 Sequence of the Accident-March 2011 .......... 277
9.4.2 March 2011 Perspectives on the Fukushima SBO Event . . 278
9.5 Salem Anticipated Transient Without Scram ............ 279
9.5.1 Chronology and Cause of the Salem Incident........ 279
9.5.2 Implications and Follow-Up of the Salem ATWS Event . . 281
9.6 LaSalle Transient Event ....................... 283
9.6.1 LaSalle Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave Oscillations .... 283
9.6.2 Simple Model for Nuclear-Coupled Density-Wave
Oscillations ......................... 287
9.6.3 Implications and Follow-Up of the LaSalle Incident .... 289
9.7 Davis-Besse Potential LOCA Event ................. 291
9.7.1 Background and Chronology of the Incident ........ 291
9.7.2 NRC Decision to Grant DB Shutdown Delay........ 293
9.7.3 Causes for the Davis-Besse Incident and Follow-Up .... 295
References.................................. 297
Exercises .................................. 300
10 PRA Studies of Nuclear Power Plants 303
10.1 WASH-1400 Reactor Safety Study.................. 304
10.2 Assessment of Severe Accident Risks: NUREG-1150 ....... 311
10.2.1 Background and Scope of the NUREG-1150 Study..... 311
10.2.2 Overview of NUREG-1150 Methodology......... . 313
10.2.3 Accident Frequency Analysis ................ 315
10.2.4 Accident Progression Analysis ............... 320
10.2.5 Radionuclide Transport Analysis .............. 324
.10.2.6 Offsite Consequence Analysis................ 327
10.2.7 Uncertainty Analysis..................... 330
10.2.8 Risk Integration ....................... 331
10.2.9 Additional Perspectives and Comments on NUREG-1150 . 337
10.3 Simplified PRA in the Structure of NUREG-1150.......... 340
10.3.1 Description of the Simplified PRA Model.......... 340
10.3.2 Parametric Studies and Comments on the Simplified PRA
Model ............................ 344
References.................................. 345
Exercises .................................. 347
11 Passive Safety and Advanced Nuclear Energy Systems 349
11.1 Passive Safety Demonstration Tests at EBR-II............ 349
11.1.1 EBR-II Primary System and Simplified Model ....... 350
11.1.2 Unprotected Loss-of-Flow and Loss-of-Heat-Sink Tests . . 357
11.1.3 Simplified Fuel Channel Analysis.............. 361
11.1.4 Implications of EBR-II Passive Safety Demonstration Tests 362
11.2 Safety Characteristics of Generation III+Plants........... 364
11.2.1 AP1000 Design Features................... 364
11.2.2 Small-Break LOCA Analysis for AP1000.......... 366
11.2.3 Economic Simplified Boiling Water Reactor ........ 371
11.2.4 Reliability Quantification of SBWR Passive Safety
Containment......................... 375
11.3 Generation IV Nuclear Power Plants................. 382
11.3.1 Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactor ................ 383
11.3.2 Hypothetical Core Disruptive Accidents for Fast Reactors . 387
11.3.3 VHTR and Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table . . 393
References.................................. 396
Exercises .................................. 399
12 Risk-Informed Regulations and Reliability-Centered Maintenance 401
12.1 Risk Measures for Nuclear Plant Regulations ............ 402
12.1.1 Principles of Risk-Informed Regulations and Licensing . . 402
12.1.2 Uncertainties in Risk-Informed Decision Making...... 405
12.1.3 Other Initiatives in Risk-Informed Regulations....... 406
12.2 Reliability-Centered Maintenance.................. 406
12.2.1 Optimization Strategy for Preventive Maintenance..... 407
12.2.2 Reliability-Centered Maintenance Framework ....... 409
12.2.3 Cost-Benefit Considerations................. 410
References.................................. 413
Exercises .................................. 415
13 Dynamic Event Tree Analysis 417
13.1 Basic Features of Dynamic Event Tree Analysis .......... 418
13.2 Continuous Event Tree Formulation................. 421
13.2.1 Derivation of the Stochastic Balance Equation ....... 421
13.2.2 Integral Form of the Stochastic Balance Equation...... 423
13.2.3 Numerical Solution of the Stochastic Balance Equation . . 425
13.3 Cell-to-Cell Mapping for Parameter Estimation........... 426
13.3.1 Derivation of the Bayesian Recursive Relationship..... 427
13.3.2 CCM Technique for Dynamic Event Tree Construction . . . 430
13.4 Diagnosis of Component Degradations ............... 434
13.4.1 Bayesian Framework for Component Diagnostics ..... 434
13.4.2 Implementation of the Probabilistic Diagnostic Algorithm . 437
References.................................. 441
Exercises .................................. 442
Appendix A: Reactor Radiological Sources 443
A. 1 Fission Product Inventory and Decay Heat ............. 443
A.2 Health Effects of Radiation Exposure ................ 446
References.................................. 448
Appendix B: Some Special Mathematical Functions 449
B.l Gamma Function........................... 449
B.2 Error Function ............................ 451
References.................................. 451
Appendix C: Some Failure Rate Data 453
Appendix D: Linear Kalman Filter Algorithm 457
References.................................. 461
Answers to Selected Exercises 462
Index 467
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| spelling | Lee, John C. Verfasser aut Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems John C. Lee ; Norman J. McCormick Hoboken, New Jersey Wiley 2011 XXI, 477 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Nuclear facilities Security measures Nuclear engineering Safety measures Nuclear engineering Risk assessment TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Chemical & Biochemical bisacsh MacCormick, Norman J. Verfasser aut HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=024366530&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Lee, John C. MacCormick, Norman J. Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems Nuclear facilities Security measures Nuclear engineering Safety measures Nuclear engineering Risk assessment TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Chemical & Biochemical bisacsh |
| title | Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems |
| title_auth | Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems |
| title_exact_search | Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems |
| title_full | Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems John C. Lee ; Norman J. McCormick |
| title_fullStr | Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems John C. Lee ; Norman J. McCormick |
| title_full_unstemmed | Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems John C. Lee ; Norman J. McCormick |
| title_short | Risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems |
| title_sort | risk and safety analysis of nuclear systems |
| topic | Nuclear facilities Security measures Nuclear engineering Safety measures Nuclear engineering Risk assessment TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Chemical & Biochemical bisacsh |
| topic_facet | Nuclear facilities Security measures Nuclear engineering Safety measures Nuclear engineering Risk assessment TECHNOLOGY & ENGINEERING / Chemical & Biochemical |
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