Applied mathematical demography:
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| Main Authors: | , |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, MA [u.a.]
Springer
2010
|
| Edition: | 3. ed. |
| Series: | Statistics for biology and health
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XXIII, 555 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9781441919779 9780387274096 |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | xviii Acknowledgments
Parts of Section 8.8 were published as “Age distribution and the stable
equivalent,” Demography 6: 261-269 (1969).
Chapter 11 contains material from Chapter 5 of Matrix Population Mod-
els: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation, 2d edition, Sinauer
Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA. Used by permission.
Some parts of Chapter 12, as well as Section 14.3, were included in “On
future population,” Journal of the American Statistical Association 67:
347-363 (1972).
Parts of Chapter 13 come from Chapters 9 and 10 of Matrix Population
Models: Construction, Analysis, and Interpretation, 2d edition, Sinauer
Associates, Sunderland, Massachusetts, USA. Used by permission.
Section 14.5 is an abridged version of “Backward population projection
by a generalized inverse,” Theoretical Population Biology 6: 135-142
(1974) (with T. N. E. Greville).
The substance of Sections 14.10 and 14.11 was included in “Popula-
tion waves,” in Population Dynamics (edited by T. N. E. Greville),
Academic Press, 1972, pp. 1-38.
Parts of Chapter 15 are from “Family formation and the frequency of
various kinship relationships,” Theoretical Population Biology 5: 1-
27 (1974) (with Leo A. Goodman and Thomas W. Pullum), and
“Addendum: Family formation and the frequency of various kinship
relationships,” Theoretical Population Biology 8: 376-381 (1975) (with
Leo A. Goodman and Thomas W. Pullum).
An early statement of Section 16.1 appeared as “How birth control affects
births,” Social Biology 18: 109-121 (1971).
Chapter 20 is reprinted with some modifications from “How do we know the
facts of demography?” Population and Development Review 1: 267-288
(1975) .
Contents
Preface to the Third Edition vii
Preface to the Second Edition xi
Preface to the First Edition xiii
Acknowledgments xvii
A Word About Notation xxv
1 Introduction: Population Without Age 1
1.1 Definitions of Rate of Increase......................... 2
1.2 Doubling Time and Half-Life.............................. 3
1.3 One-Sex Versus Two-Sex Models: Descendants of the
Pilgrim Fathers.......................................... 9
1.4 How Many People Have Lived on the Earth?................ 11
1.5 A Mixture of Populations Having Different Rates of
Increase ............................................... 13
1.6 Rate of Increase Changing over Time..................... 18
1.7 Logistic Increase and Explosion......................... 20
1.8 The Stalled Demographic Transition ..................... 23
1.9 Differential Fertility Due to the Demographic
Transition.............................................. 25
1.10 Matrices in Demography.................................. 26
XX
Contents
OQ
2 The Life Table
2.1 Definition of Life Table Functions....................... ff
2.2 Life Tables Based on Data................................ 31
2.3 Further Small Corrections................................ j9
2.4 Period and Cohort Tables ............................
2.5 Financial Calculations ...................................
2.6 Cause-Deleted Tables and Multiple Decrement.............. 42
2.7 The Life Table as a Unifying Technique in
Demography................................................ ^
3 The Matrix Model Framework 48
3.1 The Leslie Matrix........................................ 49
3.2 Projection: The Simplest Form of Analysis................ 51
3.3 The Leslie Matrix and the Life Table..................... 55
3.4 Assumptions: Projection Versus Forecasting............... 62
3.5 State Variables and Alternatives to
Age-Classification....................................... 84
3.6 Age as a State Variable: When Does it Fail?.............. 65
3.7 The Life Cycle Graph..................................... 67
3.8 The Matrix Model......................................... 69
4 Mortality Comparisons; The Male-Female Ratio 71
4.1 The Multiplicity of Index Numbers........................ 73
4.2 Should We Index Death Rates or Survivorships?............ 76
4.3 Effect on e0 of Change in fi(x) 78
4.4 Everybody Dies Prematurely............................... 88
5 Fixed Regime of Mortality and Fertility 93
5.1 Stable Theory............................................ 94
5.2 Population Growth Estimated from One Census.............. 97
5.3 Mean Age in the Stable Population....................... 103
5.4 Rate of Increase from the Fraction Under 25............. 107
5.5 Birth Rate and Rate of Increase Estimated for a
Stable Population....................................... 109
5.6 Several Ways of Using the Age Distribution ............. Ill
5.7 Sensitivity Analysis.................................... 118
5.8 Promotion Within Organizations ......................... 121
6 Birth and Population Increase from the Life Table 127
6.1 The Characteristic Equation............................. 128
6.2 A Variant Form of the Characteristic Equation .......... 133
6.3 Perturbation Analysis of the Intrinsic Rate............. 135
6.4 Arbitrary Pattern of Birth Rate Decline................. 138
6.5 Drop in Births Required to Offset a Drop in Deaths . . . 141
6.6 Moments of Dying and Living Populations............ i aa
Contents xxi
7 Birth and Population Increase from Matrix Population
Models 148
7.1 Solution of the Projection Equation....................... 148
7.2 The Strong Ergodic Theorem ............................... 155
7.3 Transient Dynamics and Convergence........................ 165
7.4 Computation of Eigenvalues and Eigenvectors ...... 175
7.5 Mathematical Formulations ................................ 176
8 Reproductive Value from the Life Table 183
8.1 Concept of Reproductive Value............................. 184
8.2 Ultimate Effect of Small Out-Migration Occurring in a
Given Year.............................................. 190
8.3 Effect of Continuing Birth Control and Sterilization . . . 191
8.4 Large Change in Regime.................................... 193
8.5 Emigration as a Policy Applied Year After Year............ 194
8.6 The Momentum of Population Growth........................ 196
8.7 Eliminating Heart Disease................................. 199
8.8 The Stable Equivalent .................................... 200
8.9 Reproductive Value as a Contribution to
Future Births............................................ 206
9 Reproductive Value from Matrix Models 208
9.1 Reproductive Value as an Eigenvector...................... 208
9.2 The Stable Equivalent Population.......................... 213
10 Understanding Population Characteristics 216
10.1 Accounting for Age Distribution........................... 217
10.2 More Women Than Men....................................... 223
10.3 Age at Marriage......................................... 225
10.4 The Foreign-Born and Internal Migrants.................... 236
10.5 Human Stocks and Flows.................................... 238
10.6 The Demography of Organizations........................... 241
11 Markov Chains for Individual Life Histories 245
11.1 A = T + F................................................. 245
11.2 Lifetime Event Probabilities.............................. 251
11.3 Age-Specific Traits From Stage-Specific Models............ 253
12 Projection and Forecasting 268
12.1 Unavoidable and Impossible................................ 268
12.2 The Technique of Projection............................... 272
12.3 Applications of Projection................................ 278
12.4 The Search for Constancies................................ 282
12.5 Features of Forecasting and Forecasting Error............. 287
12.6 The Components of Forecasting Error Ex Ante .............. 292
xxii Contents
12.7 Ex Post Evaluation of Point Estimates................ 296
12.8 A Division of Labor.................................. 299
12.9 Interval Estimates as Currently Provided............. 301
13 Perturbation Analysis of Matrix Models 303
13.1 Eigenvalue Sensitivity............................... 305
13.2 Elasticity Analysis.................................. 317
13.3 Sensitivities of Eigenvectors........................ 321
13.4 Life Table Response Experiments...................... 325
13.5 Fixed Designs........................................ 327
13.6 Random Designs and Variance Decomposition............ 329
13.7 Regression Designs................................... 332
13.8 Prospective and Retrospective Analyses............... 333
14 Some Types of Instability 335
14.1 Absolute Change in Mortality the Same at All Ages . . . 335
14.2 Proportional Change in Mortality..................... 338
14.3 Changing Birth Rates................................. 341
14.4 Announced Period Birth Rate Too High ................ 343
14.5 Backward Population Projection....................... 348
14.6 The Time to Stability................................ 352
14.7 Retirement Pensions .................................... 358
14.8 The Demography of Educational Organization........... 361
14.9 Two Levels of Students and Teachers..................... 363
14.10 Mobility in an Unstable Population...................... 365
14.11 The Easterlin Effect.................................... 366
15 The Demographic Theory of Kinship 370
15.1 Probability of Living Ancestors......................... 372
15.2 Descendants............................................. 379
15.3 Sisters and Aunts....................................... 381
15.4 Mean and Variance of Ages .............................. 386
15.5 Changing Rates of Birth and Death....................... 387
15.6 Sensitivity Analysis.................................... 388
15.7 Deriving Rates from Genealogies......................... 394
15.8 Incest Taboo and Rate of Increase....................... 396
15.9 Bias Imposed by Age Difference.......................... 397
16 Microdemography ^gg
16.1 Births Averted by Contraception......................... 399
16.2 Measurement of Fecundity...................
16.3 Three-Child Families Constitute a Population
Explosion .............................................. ^25
16.4 A Family-Building to Avoid Extinction ......... 427
16.5 Sex Preference and the Birth Rate .... Aon
Contents xxiii
16.6 Parental Control over Sex of Children.................. 433
16.7 Mean Family Size from Order-of-Birth Distribution . . . 439
16.8 Parity Progression..................................... 440
16.9 Lower Mortality and Increase........................... 441
17 The Multi-State Model 444
17.1 Single Decrement and Increment-Decrement............... 446
17.2 The Kolmogorov Equation................................ 449
17.3 Expected Time in the Several States.................... 452
17.4 Projection............................................. 455
17.5 Transition Versus Instantaneous Probability of
Moving................................................. 456
17.6 Stable Population...................................... 459
18 Family Demography 461
18.1 Definitions............................................ 462
18.2 Kinship................................................ 464
18.3 The Life Cycle......................................... 469
18.4 Household Size Distribution............................ 471
18.5 Economic, Political, and Biological Theory............. 474
18.6 Family Policy.......................................... 475
19 Heterogeneity and Selection in Population Analysis 477
19.1 Conditioning and the Interpretation of Statistical
Data................................................... 479
19.2 Heterogeneity and Selection............................ 481
19.3 Application to Mortality............................... 482
19.4 Modelling Heterogeneity................................ 486
19.5 Experimentation........................................ 492
20 Epilogue: How Do We Know the Facts of Demography? 494
20.1 Proportions of Old People.............................. 496
20.2 Promotion in Organizations............................. 501
20.3 No Model, No Understanding............................. 503
20.4 Too Many Models........................................ 504
20.5 Development and Population Increase.................... 504
20.6 How Nature Covers Her Tracks .......................... 508
20.7 The Psychology of Research............................. 510
Bibliography 513
Index 551
|
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| spelling | Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Verfasser (DE-588)170249875 aut Applied mathematical demography 3. ed. Cambridge, MA [u.a.] Springer 2010 XXIII, 555 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Statistics for biology and health Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd rswk-swf Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd rswk-swf 1\p (DE-588)4006432-3 Bibliografie gnd-content Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 s DE-604 Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 s Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 s 2\p DE-604 Caswell, Hal Verfasser aut Digitalisierung UB Bamberg - ADAM Catalogue Enrichment application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=022529972&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk |
| spellingShingle | Keyfitz, Nathan 1913-2010 Caswell, Hal Applied mathematical demography Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4129436-1 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4114528-8 (DE-588)4011412-0 (DE-588)4006432-3 |
| title | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_auth | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_exact_search | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_full | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_fullStr | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_full_unstemmed | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_short | Applied mathematical demography |
| title_sort | applied mathematical demography |
| topic | Sozialanthropologie (DE-588)4129436-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Mathematisches Modell (DE-588)4114528-8 gnd Demographie (DE-588)4011412-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Sozialanthropologie Bevölkerungsentwicklung Mathematisches Modell Demographie Bibliografie |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=022529972&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT keyfitznathan appliedmathematicaldemography AT caswellhal appliedmathematicaldemography |