Choices: an introduction to decision theory
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Minneapolis [u.a.]
Univ. of Minnesota Press
2011
|
| Edition: | 9. print. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext |
| Physical Description: | XIII, 221 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780816614400 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Choices |b an introduction to decision theory |c Michael D. Resnik |
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text | CONTENTS
PREFACE
xi
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
xiii
Chapter
1
Introduction
3
1-1
What Is Decision Theory?
3
1-2
The Basic Framework
6
l-2a Some Philosophical Problems about Problem
Specifications
8
1-3
Certainty, Ignorance, and Risk
13
1-За
Some Details of Formulation
14
1-4
Decision Trees
17
1-5
References
19
Chapter
2
Decisions under Ignorance
21
2-1
Preference
Orderings
22
2-2
The
Maximin
Rule
26
2-3
The Minimax Regret Rule
28
2-4
The Optimism-Pessimism Rule
33
2-5
The Principle of Insufficient Reason
35
2-6
Too Many Rules?
38
2-7
An Application in Social Philosophy:
Rawls vs. Harsanyi
41
2-8
References
44
Chapter
3
Decisions under Risk: Probability
45
3-1
Maximizing Expected Values
45
3-2
Probability Theory
47
3-2a Bayes s Theorem without Priors
55
3-2b Bayes s Theorem and the Value of Additional
Information
57
3-2c
Statistical Decision Theory and Decisions
under Ignorance
59
3-3
Interpretations of Probability
61
3-3a The Classical View
62
3-3b The Relative Frequency View
65
3-3c Subjective Views
68
3-3d Coherence and Conditionalization
75
3-4
References
79
Chapter
4
Decisions under Risk: Utility
81
4-1
Interval Utility Scales
81
4-2
Monetary Values vs. Utilities
85
4-3 Von Neumann-Morgenstern
Utility Theory
88
4-3a Some Comments and Qualifications on the
Expected Utility Theorem
98
4-4
Criticisms of Utility Theory
101
4-4a Allais s Paradox
103
4-4b Ellsberg s Paradox
105
4-4c The St. Petersburg Paradox
107
4-5
The Predictor Paradox
109
4-6
Causal Decision Theory
112
4-6a Objections and Alternatives
115
4-6b Concluding Remarks on the Paradoxes
118
4-7
References
119
Chapter
5
Game Theory
121
5-1
The Basic Concepts of Game Theory
121
5-2
Two-Person Strictly Competitive Games
127
5-3
Equilibrium Strategy Pairs
129
5-3a Mixed Strategies
132
5-3b Proof of the Maximin Theorem
for Two-by-Two Games
137
5-3c A Shortcut
139
5-3d On Taking Chances
141
5-4
Two-Person Nonzero Sum Games: Failures
of the Equilibrium Concept
144
5-4a The Clash of Wills
144
5-4b The Prisoner s Dilemma
147
5-4c Other Prisoner s Dilemmas
148
5-4d The Prisoner s Dilemma and the Predictor
150
5-4e Morals for Rationality and Morality
151
5-5
Cooperative Games
157
5-5a Bargaining Games
159
5-6
Games
with Three or More Players
167
5-7
References
175
Chapter
6
Social Choices
177
6-1
The Problem of Social Choice
177
6-2
Arrow s Theorem
180
6-2a Arrow s Conditions
180
6-2b Arrow s Theorem and Its Proof
186
6-3
Majority Rule
191
6-4
Utilitarianism
196
6-4a Harsanyi s Theorem
197
6-4b Critique of Harsanyi s Theorem
200
6-4c Interpersonal Comparisons of Utility
205
6-5
References
212
BIBLIOGRAPHY
215
INDEX
219
Críete
AN INTRODUCTION TO DECISION THEORY
Michael D. Resnik
Decision theory is the collection of mathematical, logical, and philosophi¬
cal theories of decision-making by rational individuals-taken alone, in
competition, and in groups. Until recently, decision theory has been ap¬
plied mainly to the domains of statisticians, mathematicians, economists,
and management scientists. But it has also become an integral part of im¬
portant approaches to the philosophy of science, the theory of rationality,
political philosophy, and ethics. In Choices philosopher Michael Resnik s
aim is to provide a broad yet rigorous introduction to the fundamentals of
decision theory that pays particular attention to matters of philosophical
and logical interest. This text, which assumes no mathematics beyond high-
school algebra, offers students of philosophy and social and management
sciences a thorough grounding in both the philosophical and formal as¬
pects of decision theory.
Resnik begins with an account of individual decision making, treating
decisions under ignorance and under risk, along with probability theory,
interpretations of probability, and utility theory and its paradoxes. He then
moves on to game theory-two-person-zero-sum and
non-
zero-sum games,
bargaining games, and
и
-person
coalitions. The final part of the book deals
with social choices. It contains proofs of Arrow s theorem, May s theorem
on majority rule, and Harsanyft derivation of utilitarianism. Other proofs
include the Dutch Book theorem, the expected utility theorem, and the
minimax theorem for two-by-two games. Each section ends with a set of
exercises that ask the reader to apply the concepts and methods introduced.
Michael D. Resnik is professor of philosophy at the University of North
Carolina at Chapel Hill. He is the author of
Frege
and the Philosophy of
Mathematics.
|
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T23:21:57Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780816614400 |
| language | English |
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| physical | XIII, 221 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2011 |
| publishDateSearch | 2011 |
| publishDateSort | 2011 |
| publisher | Univ. of Minnesota Press |
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| spelling | Resnik, Michael D. 1938- Verfasser (DE-588)12262047X aut Choices an introduction to decision theory Michael D. Resnik 9. print. Minneapolis [u.a.] Univ. of Minnesota Press 2011 XIII, 221 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4151278-9 Einführung gnd-content Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=022471994&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=022471994&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext |
| spellingShingle | Resnik, Michael D. 1938- Choices an introduction to decision theory Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)4151278-9 |
| title | Choices an introduction to decision theory |
| title_auth | Choices an introduction to decision theory |
| title_exact_search | Choices an introduction to decision theory |
| title_full | Choices an introduction to decision theory Michael D. Resnik |
| title_fullStr | Choices an introduction to decision theory Michael D. Resnik |
| title_full_unstemmed | Choices an introduction to decision theory Michael D. Resnik |
| title_short | Choices |
| title_sort | choices an introduction to decision theory |
| title_sub | an introduction to decision theory |
| topic | Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entscheidungstheorie Einführung |
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