Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ:
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | Russian |
| Published: |
Minsk
"Belaruskaja Navuka"
2009
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | In kyrill. Schr., russ. - Inh.-Verz. und Zsfassung in engl. Sprache u.d.T.: Author Shakhotska Lyudmila, Model of demographic development of Republic of Belarus Includes bibliographical references |
| Physical Description: | 437 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. 21 cm |
| ISBN: | 9789850811097 |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ |c L. P. Šachotʹko |
| 246 | 1 | 3 | |a Model of demographic development of Republic of Belarus |
| 246 | 1 | |a Modelʹ demograficheskogo razvitii͡a Respubliki Belarusʹ | |
| 264 | 1 | |a Minsk |b "Belaruskaja Navuka" |c 2009 | |
| 300 | |a 437 S. |b zahlr. graph. Darst. |c 21 cm | ||
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| 500 | |a In kyrill. Schr., russ. - Inh.-Verz. und Zsfassung in engl. Sprache u.d.T.: Author Shakhotska Lyudmila, Model of demographic development of Republic of Belarus | ||
| 500 | |a Includes bibliographical references | ||
| 648 | 7 | |a Geschichte 1950-2030 |2 gnd |9 rswk-swf | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Belarus. Byelorussian S.S.R. White Russia | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Demography. Population. Vital events | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Economic theory. Demography | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Social sciences | |
| 650 | 4 | |a Sozialwissenschaften | |
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Record in the Search Index
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|---|---|
| adam_text |
ОГЛАВЛЕНИЕ
Введение
. 3
Глава
1.
ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКИЕ КОНЦЕПЦИИ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКО¬
ГО РАЗВИТИЯ
. 9
1.1.
Общее понятие о теориях демографического развития
. 9
1.2.
Теория демографического перехода
. 12
1.3.
Развитие теории демографического перехода
. 18
1.4.
Глобальные и региональные закономерности в демографиче¬
ском развитии
. 29
1.5.
Важнейшие региональные демографические феномены в Бела¬
руси, не объясняемые теорией демографического перехода
. 32
1.6.
Институциональный подход в демографической теории
. 34
Глава
2.
ТЕОРЕТИЧЕСКИЕ И МЕТОДИЧЕСКИЕ ОСНОВЫ ДЕМО¬
ГРАФИЧЕСКИХ ПРОГНОЗОВ
. 43
2.1.
Назначение демографических прогнозов
. 43
2.2.
Классификации демографических прогнозов
. 47
2.3.Методология демографического прогнозирования
. 56
Глава
3.
ОЦЕНКА ДОСТОВЕРНОСТИ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИХ ПРОГ¬
НОЗОВ, РАЗРАБОТАННЫХ В БЕЛАРУСИ
. 70
ЗЛ.Оценка достоверности демографических прогнозов, разработан¬
ных в Беларуси в конце 1960-х гп
. 70
3.2.Оценка достоверности демографических прогнозов, разрабо¬
танных в Беларуси в начале 1990-х гг.
. 77
Глава
4.
ОСНОВНЫЕ ИСТОЧНИКИ ИНФОРМАЦИИ О НАСЕ¬
ЛЕНИИ
. 89
4.1.
Переписи населения как один из основных источников инфор¬
мации о населении
. 90
4.2.
Переписи населения на территории Республики Беларусь
. 111
435
4.3.
Текущий учет демографических событий как один из основных
источников информации о населении
. 132
4.4.Другие источники информации о населении
. 137
Глава
5.
ХАРАКТЕРИСТИКА СОВРЕМЕННОЙ МОДЕЛИ ДЕМО¬
ГРАФИЧЕСКОГО РАЗВИТИЯ РЕСПУБЛИКИ БЕЛАРУСЬ
. 143
5.1.
Демографическое развитие Республики Беларусь в сравнении
с тенденциями в других государствах СНГ
. 149
5.2.
Динамика численности населения и изменения в половозраст¬
ной структуре населения Республики Беларусь
. 154
5.3.
Естественный прирост населения
. 181
5.4.
Рождаемость и репродуктивные установки населения
. 190
5.5.
Смертность и ожидаемая продолжительность жизни
. 221
5.6.
Миграционные процессы на территории Беларуси в конце
XX
-
начале
XXI
в
. 244
Глава
6.
ОЦЕНКА РОЛИ ОСНОВНЫХ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИХ ПРО¬
ЦЕССОВ В ВОСПРОИЗВОДСТВЕ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ СТРАНЫ
. 292
6.1.
Оценка современного уровня воспроизводства населения
. 292
6.2.
Смертность как один из вызовов демографической безопасности
. 304
6.3.
Миграционные процессы и их роль в решении проблем демо¬
графической безопасности Республики Беларусь
. 313
6.4.
Рождаемость как главный вызов демографической безопасности
. 319
6.5.
Сравнение результатов демографических прогнозов, рассчи¬
танных по шести гипотетическим сценариям развития
. 326
Глава
7.
ПРОГНОЗ ЧИСЛЕННОСТИ И ПОЛОВОЗРАСТНОЙ СТРУК¬
ТУРЫ НАСЕЛЕНИЯ РЕСПУБЛИКИ БЕЛАРУСЬ ДО
2030
г.
. 330
7.1.
Структура комплекса задач для разработки демографического
прогноза
. 330
7.2.
Прогнозные сценарии развития динамики рождаемости
. 333
7.3.
Прогнозные сценарии развития динамики смертности и сред¬
ней продолжительности предстоящей жизни
. 339
7.4.
Сценарии развития миграционных процессов в перспективе
. 346
7.5.
Ожидаемые изменения численности и половозрастной структу¬
ры населения Беларуси в будущем
. 352
Глава
8.
РЕГУЛИРОВАНИЕ ДЕМОГРАФИЧЕСКИХ ПРОЦЕССОВ
В РЕСПУБЛИКЕ БЕЛАРУСЬ
. 359
Заключение
. 382
Приложение. Динамика основных демографических показателей Рес¬
публики Беларусь
. 391
CONTENTS
INTRODUCTION
.
З
Chapter I. THEORETICAL CONCEPTS OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVE¬
LOPMENT
. 9
1.1.
The general concept of theories of demographic development
. 9
1.2.
The theory of demographic transition
. 12
1.3.
Development of the theory of demographic transition
. 18
1.4.
Global and regional laws in demographic development
. 29
1.5.
The main regional demographic phenomena in Belarus, that can't
be explained by theory of demographic transition
. 32
1.6.
The institutional approach of the demographic theory
. 34
Chapter
2.
THEORETICAL AND METHODICAL BASES OF DEMO¬
GRAPHIC FORECASTS
. 43
2.1.
Purpose of demographic forecasts
. 43
2.2.
Classifications of demographic forecasts
. 47
2.3.
Methodology of demographic forecasting
. 56
Chapter
3.
THE ESTIMATION OF RELIABILITY OF THE DEMO¬
GRAPHIC FORECASTS DEVELOPED IN BYELORUSSIA EARLIER
. 70
3.1.
Estimation of reliability of the demographic forecasts of the end
of 60th years
. 70
3.2.
Estimation of reliability of the demographic forecasts of the middle
of
90
years
. 77
Chapter
4.
THE DATE SOURCES ON THE POPULATION
. 89
4.1.
Census as one of the basic data sources on the population
. 90
4.2.
Byelorussian census
.
Ill
4.3.
The current registration of demographic events as one of the basic
data sources
. 132
4.4.
Other data sources on the population
. 137
437
Chapter
5.
MODERN MODEL OF DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT
OF REPUBLIC OF BELARUS
. 143
5.1.
Byelorussian demographic development in comparison with other
CIS countries
. 149
5.2.
Changes of population and changes of age and sex structure
in Belarus
. 154
5.3.
Population natural increase
. 181
5.4.
Birth rate and reproductive installations of the population
. 190
5.5.
Death rate and expectation of life at birth
. 221
5.6.
Migrant movement in Belarus
. 244
Chapter
6.
THE ESTIMATION OF THE EFFECT OF THE BASIC DE¬
MOGRAPHIC PROCESSES ON REPRODUCTION IN BELARUS
. 292
6.1.
Estimation of a modern reproductive level
. 292
6.2.
Mortality as one of threats of demographic safety
. 304
6.3.
Migration and their effect on the solution of Byelorussian demo¬
graphic problems
. 313
6.4.
Fertility as the main threat of demographic safety
. 319
6.5.
Comparison of results of six hypothetical scripts of demographic de¬
velopment
. 326
Chapter
7.
THE FORECAST OF THE POPULATION AND AGE AND SEX
STRUCTURES OF THE POPULATION TILL
2030. 330
7.1.
Structure of forecasting problems in the country.
. 330
7.2.
Forecast of fertility
. 333
7.3.
Forecast of mortality and expectation of life at birth
. 339
7.4.
Forecast of migration
. 346
7.5.
Expected changes of Byelorussian population in future
. 352
Chapter
8.
REGULATION OF DEMOGRAPHIC PROCESSES IN BE¬
LARUS
. 359
Conclusions
. 382
Appendix. Changes of the basic demographic parameters of Belarus
. 391 |
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| geographic | Belarus / Population Belarus (DE-588)4079143-9 gnd |
| geographic_facet | Belarus / Population Belarus |
| id | DE-604.BV036695574 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-11-25T11:06:16Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9789850811097 |
| language | Russian |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020614115 |
| oclc_num | 705875340 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-12 |
| owner_facet | DE-12 |
| physical | 437 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. 21 cm |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | "Belaruskaja Navuka" |
| record_format | marc |
| spelling | Šachotʹko, Ljudmila Petrovna 1940- Verfasser (DE-588)170186717 aut Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ L. P. Šachotʹko Model of demographic development of Republic of Belarus Modelʹ demograficheskogo razvitii͡a Respubliki Belarusʹ Minsk "Belaruskaja Navuka" 2009 437 S. zahlr. graph. Darst. 21 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier In kyrill. Schr., russ. - Inh.-Verz. und Zsfassung in engl. Sprache u.d.T.: Author Shakhotska Lyudmila, Model of demographic development of Republic of Belarus Includes bibliographical references Geschichte 1950-2030 gnd rswk-swf Belarus. Byelorussian S.S.R. White Russia Demography. Population. Vital events Economic theory. Demography Social sciences Sozialwissenschaften Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 gnd rswk-swf Belarus / Population Belarus (DE-588)4079143-9 gnd rswk-swf Belarus (DE-588)4079143-9 g Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 s Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s Geschichte 1950-2030 z DE-604 Digitalisierung BSB Muenchen application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020614115&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Šachotʹko, Ljudmila Petrovna 1940- Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ Belarus. Byelorussian S.S.R. White Russia Demography. Population. Vital events Economic theory. Demography Social sciences Sozialwissenschaften Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4006287-9 (DE-588)4079143-9 |
| title | Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ |
| title_alt | Model of demographic development of Republic of Belarus Modelʹ demograficheskogo razvitii͡a Respubliki Belarusʹ |
| title_auth | Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ |
| title_exact_search | Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ |
| title_full | Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ L. P. Šachotʹko |
| title_fullStr | Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ L. P. Šachotʹko |
| title_full_unstemmed | Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ L. P. Šachotʹko |
| title_short | Modelʹ demografičeskogo razvitija Respubliki Belarusʹ |
| title_sort | modelʹ demograficeskogo razvitija respubliki belarusʹ |
| topic | Belarus. Byelorussian S.S.R. White Russia Demography. Population. Vital events Economic theory. Demography Social sciences Sozialwissenschaften Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd Bevölkerung (DE-588)4006287-9 gnd |
| topic_facet | Belarus. Byelorussian S.S.R. White Russia Demography. Population. Vital events Economic theory. Demography Social sciences Sozialwissenschaften Bevölkerungsentwicklung Bevölkerung Belarus / Population Belarus |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020614115&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT sachotʹkoljudmilapetrovna modelʹdemograficeskogorazvitijarespublikibelarusʹ AT sachotʹkoljudmilapetrovna modelofdemographicdevelopmentofrepublicofbelarus AT sachotʹkoljudmilapetrovna modelʹdemograficheskogorazvitiiarespublikibelarusʹ |