Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis:
Saved in:
| Format: | Book |
|---|---|
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Washington, DC
Internat. Monetary Fund
2009
|
| Series: | Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund
269 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | X, 85 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9781589068506 |
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MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis
Autor:
Jahr: 2009
Contents
Preface vii
Abbreviations ix
I Overview I
II Fiscal Implications of the Crisis: Direct Costs 2
Headline Support to Financial Sectors 2
Net Cost over the Medium Term 3
Potential Total Cost of Implicit and Explicit Guarantees 6
III Fiscal Implications of the Crisis: The Cost of the Recession 7
Automatic Stabilizers 7
Other Nondiscretionary Effects 7
Discretionary Responses to the Crisis 9
IV Fiscal Implications of the Crisis: Effects Through the Funded
Component of the Pension System 13
Losses of Funded Pension Schemes 13
Risks for Fiscal Accounts 13
V The Outlook for Public Finances in Light of the Crisis 16
Short-Term Outlook 16
The Medium-Term Outlook and Risk Assessment 16
VI The Risk for Fiscal Solvency and the Appropriate Policy Response 22
The Level of Government Debt 22
The Dynamics of Government Debt: Current and Future Deficits 24
The Way Forward 26
Appendixes
I. Reporting the Fiscal Impact of Financial Sector Support 34
II. Financial Sector Support Measures 44
III. Outlook for Recovery Rates 61
IV. Measuring Government Contingent Liabilities to the Banking Sector 65
V. Estimation of Nondiscretionary Impacts 68
VI. Fiscal Stimulus Packages in the G-20 Countries 71
VII. Effect of Larger Debts on Interest Rates 78
VIII. Japan: High Public Debt and Low Interest Rates 80
Bibliography 81
Boxes
2.1. Fiscal Accounting Treatment of Support to the Financial Sector 3
6.1. Debt/GDP Stabilizing Primary Balance 24
6.2. Post-Banking-Crisis Fiscal Consolidation: Finland and Sweden
During the 1990s 30
A3.1. Japan s 1997 Banking Crisis: Fiscal Cost and Recovery Rates 61
Figures
3.1. Composition of Discretionary Fiscal Measures in G-20 Countries, 2008-10 11
4.1. Pension Fund Assets in OECD Countries 14
4.2. Pension Plan Assets by Economy, End-2007 14
5.1. G-20 Countries: Outlook for Public Finances 17
5.2. Impact of the Crisis on Public Finances: Contributing Factors 17
5.3. G-20 Advanced Countries: Evolution of Government Debt 18
5.4. Lower Growth Scenario 18
5.5. Prolonged Slowdown Scenario 20
5.6. Government Debt in Case of Prolonged Slowdown, Higher Interest Rate,
and Contingent Liability Shock 20
6.1. Long-Term Government Bond Yields and Spreads 23
6.2. Selected Countries: Public Debt-to-GDP Ratio 26
6.3. Population Aging in Emerging Market Countries, 2005 and 2050 29
6.4. Advanced G-20 Countries: Government Debt 29
6.5. EU-5 Countries: Outlook for Fiscal Balance Versus 2006 Stability Program 32
A3.1. Recovery Rates: Selected Banking Crises 62
A3.2. Gross and Net Fiscal Cost of Banking Crises 62
A8.1. Japan: Debt and Interest Rates 80
Tables
2.1. Headline Support for Financial and Other Sectors and Upfront
Financing Need 4
3.1. G-20 Countries: Contribution of Automatic Stabilizers 8
3.2. Loss of Fiscal Revenue Due to Commodity Price Movements 8
3.3. G-20 Countries: Other Nondiscretionary Factors 8
3.4. G-20 Countries: Estimated Cost of Discretionary Measures 9
3.5. G-20 Stimulus Measures, 2008-10 10
5.1. G-20 Countries: Change in Fiscal Balances and Government Debt 16
5.2. Public Finances 19
6.1. Historical Episodes of Major Accumulations and Decumulations of
Government Debt 25
6.2. Debt and Primary Balance 27
6.3. Fiscal Costs of Aging 28
6.4. Emerging Economies: Selected Debt Reduction Episodes 31
6.5. Net Present Value of Impact on Fiscal Deficit of Crisis and Aging-
Related Spending 32
A 1.1. Statistical Treatment of Government Intervention (Under GFSM 1986) 37
AI.2. Statistical Treatment of Government Intervention (Under GFSM 2001) 40
A2.I. Upfront Gross Fiscal Cost and Estimated Recovery Rate 44
A2.2. Hypothetical Net Cost from Financial Sector Support Measures:
Illustrative Scenarios 45
A2.3. Financial Sector Support Operations in Selected Countries 46
A3.1. Estimation Results 63
A3.2. In-Sample Recovery Rate Predictions 64
A4.1. Banking Sector: Expected Cost of Financial Guarantees Based on
CCA Calculations 66
A4.2. Banking Sector: Expected Cost of Financial Guarantees Based on
CCA Calculations Annual Cost over Five Years 67
A4.3. Banking Sector: Expected Costs of Financial Guarantees Based on Three
Alternative Credit Spread Measures and Total Banking Liabilities 67
A5.1. Estimated Impact of Automatic Stabilizers on G-20 Fiscal Balances 69
A5.2. Responsiveness of Cyclically Adjusted Revenue to Asset Price Changes 69
A6.1. Summary of the Fiscal Stimulus Packages in the G-20 Countries 71
A7.1. Studies on the Effects of Debt and Deficits on Interest Rates 79
The following conventions are used in this publication:
• In tables, a blank cell indicates not applicable, ellipsis points (...) indicate not avail¬
able, and 0 or 0.0 indicates zero or negligible. Minor discrepancies between sums of
constituent figures and totals are due to rounding.
• An en dash (-) between years or months (for example, 2007-08 or January-June) indicates
the years or months covered, including the beginning and ending years or months; a slash
or virgule (/) between years or months (for example, 2007/08) indicates a fiscal or finan¬
cial year, as does the abbreviation FY (for example, FY2008).
• Billion means a thousand million; trillion means a thousand billion.
• Basis points refer to hundredths of 1 percentage point (for example, 25 basis points are
equivalent to !4 of 1 percentage point).
As used in this publication, the term country does not in all cases refer to a territorial
entity that is a state as understood by international law and practice. As used here, the term
also covers some territorial entities that are not states but for which statistical data are main¬
tained on a separate and independent basis.
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| publishDate | 2009 |
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| publisher | Internat. Monetary Fund |
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| series2 | Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund |
| spelling | Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis by a staff team from the Fiscal Affairs Department Washington, DC Internat. Monetary Fund 2009 X, 85 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Occasional paper / International Monetary Fund 269 Wirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4066466-1 gnd rswk-swf Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4066466-1 s Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 s DE-604 Internationaler Währungsfonds Fiscal Affairs Department Sonstige (DE-588)3009484-7 oth International Monetary Fund Occasional paper 269 (DE-604)BV002597241 269 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020553894&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis Wirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4066466-1 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4066466-1 (DE-588)7635855-0 |
| title | Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis |
| title_auth | Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis |
| title_exact_search | Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis |
| title_full | Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis by a staff team from the Fiscal Affairs Department |
| title_fullStr | Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis by a staff team from the Fiscal Affairs Department |
| title_full_unstemmed | Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis by a staff team from the Fiscal Affairs Department |
| title_short | Fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis |
| title_sort | fiscal implications of the global economic and financial crisis |
| topic | Wirtschaftskrise (DE-588)4066466-1 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaftskrise Finanzkrise |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020553894&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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