Managing project uncertainty:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Farnham [u.a.]
Gower
2009
|
| Series: | Advances in project management
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Physical Description: | XII, 127 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780566088407 |
Staff View
MARC
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: Managing project uncertainty
Autor: Cleden, David
Jahr: 2009
CONTENTS
L«? of Figures vii
List of Tables ix
Preface xi
1 Living With Uncertainty 1
Living in an Uncertain World 1
Novelty Breeds Uncertainty 2
Risk Versus Uncertainty 4
Variability and Indeterminacy 7
Uncertain Outcomes 8
The Knowledge-Centric View of Uncertainty 9
The Four Quadrants Model 12
Adopting a Structured Approach to Managing Uncertainty 16
2 Uncertainty in Project and Programme Plans 21
Tradeoffs and Affordability 21
Project Complexity 23
Capacity for Uncertainty 27
Accommodating Uncertainty in the Project Plan 28
Quantifying, Discussing and Communicating Uncertainty 32
3 Problem-Solving Strategies For Managing Uncertainty 37
Confrontation Modes 37
Exposing the Underlying Problems Caused by Uncertainty 41
Getting to the Root of Uncertainty 42
Framing the Underlying Problem 48
Finding the Solution 52
Idealized Outcomes and Negative Objectives 55
4 Knowledge-Centric Strategies 57
Using Knowledge to Visualize the Future 57
Mapping What We Know - and What We Don t 59
What is Project Knowledge? 63
Optimizing Decision-Making 65
vi MANAGING PROJECT UNCERTAINTY
5 Anticipation Strategies 71
Limits to Forecasting Approaches 71
Thinking Forwards, Thinking Backwards 72
Building the Forecasting Model 74
Working with Scenarios 79
Multiple Explorations 83
Questions of Scale 85
6 Resilience Strategies 89
Agility 89
Fast Learning Loops 92
The Shewhart Cycle 95
The Need for Speed 99
Safety Nets 100
Trigger Points - Preventing Uncertainty from Escalating 100
Maintaining Project Stability 102
7 Learning Strategies 105
Learning to Improve 105
The Constructive Mindset for Managing Uncertainty 108
Developing a Constructive Mindset 108
Mindfulness and Vigilance 111
Harnessing Creativity 114
Final Thoughts 117
Glossary 119
Bibliography 123
Inrlpr 125
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1.1
Figure 1.2
Figure 1.3
Figure 1.4
Figure 1.5
Figure 2.1
Figure 2.2
Figure 2.3
Figure 2.4
Figure 3.1
Figure 3.2
Figure 3.3
Figure 3.4
Figure 4.1
Figure 4.2
Figure 4.3
Figure 5.1
Figure 5.2
Figure 5.3
Figure 5.4
Figure 5.5
Figure 5.6
Figure 6.1
Figure 6.2
Figure 6.3
Figure 6.4
Figure 6.5
Figure 7.1
Figure 7.2
The relationship between risk and uncertainty 5
Uncertain outcomes 8
The four quadrants model 13
The uncertainty lifecycle 16
The uncertainty lifecycle overlaid with the key types of
strategy 18
The economics of managing uncertainty 22
Managing uncertainty in a sequential delivery cycle 25
Managing uncertainty in an incremental delivery process 26
The uncertainty diagram 35
Four possible modes for confronting uncertainty 38
Complex problems are often more than the sum of their
parts 44
A four-step process for analysing root problems 45
A two-stage approach to problem-solving 49
Modelling the key project drivers and their relationships 58
An annotated knowledge map 62
Knowledge as a hierarchy 64
The state-driven forecasting model 75
Reducing the complexity of the forecasting model 76
A decision tree 77
A fishbone diagram 79
Making an intuitive leap to visualize a future scenario 80
Using a multiple exploration strategy to overcome inherent
uncertainty 84
Sequential and iterative project methodologies 93
The Shewhart Cycle 95
The 80/20 principle (Pareto s Law) 97
A timeline for uncertainty 101
The illusion of project stability 102
A seven-step learning strategy 106
An idealized mindset for managing uncertainty. 110
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1
Table 2.1
Table 2.2
Table 3.1
Table 3.2
Table 3.3
Table 4.1
Table 4.2
Table 4.3
Table 5.1
Table 5.2
Table 6.1
Table 6.2
Table 6.3
Table 7.1
Observed uncertainty 9
A project s capacity for uncertainty is influenced by many
factors 28
Analysing the variation associated with four possible
scenarios 34
More than one way to deal with uncertainty 40^H
Guidelines for framing problems arising from uncertainty 46
A primer for practical problem-solving 54
Identifying key drivers in the forecasting model 60
Scoring the level of knowledge in a particular aspect of the
project 62
The hallmarks of effective decision-making 66-67
A question-driven approach to building scenarios 81
Using the Six Thinking Hats idea to assess future scenarios 82
Key factors which determine the agility of a project 91 -92
Getting the best out of iterative working 94
Spotting problems emerging out of the dynamic tension 103
Mindset traits to encourage creativity 115-116
|
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T22:44:20Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780566088407 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2008046134 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-020539815 |
| oclc_num | 705738904 |
| open_access_boolean | 1 |
| owner | DE-M347 DE-188 |
| owner_facet | DE-M347 DE-188 |
| physical | XII, 127 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | Gower |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Advances in project management |
| spelling | Cleden, David Verfasser aut Managing project uncertainty David Cleden Farnham [u.a.] Gower 2009 XII, 127 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Advances in project management Includes bibliographical references and index Project management Problem solving Uncertainty Risiko (DE-588)4050129-2 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd rswk-swf Projektmanagement (DE-588)4047441-0 gnd rswk-swf Projektmanagement (DE-588)4047441-0 s Risiko (DE-588)4050129-2 s Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 s DE-604 DE-601 pdf/application http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/58529996X.pdf kostenfrei Inhaltsverzeichnis HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020539815&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Cleden, David Managing project uncertainty Project management Problem solving Uncertainty Risiko (DE-588)4050129-2 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Projektmanagement (DE-588)4047441-0 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4050129-2 (DE-588)4070864-0 (DE-588)4047441-0 |
| title | Managing project uncertainty |
| title_auth | Managing project uncertainty |
| title_exact_search | Managing project uncertainty |
| title_full | Managing project uncertainty David Cleden |
| title_fullStr | Managing project uncertainty David Cleden |
| title_full_unstemmed | Managing project uncertainty David Cleden |
| title_short | Managing project uncertainty |
| title_sort | managing project uncertainty |
| topic | Project management Problem solving Uncertainty Risiko (DE-588)4050129-2 gnd Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Projektmanagement (DE-588)4047441-0 gnd |
| topic_facet | Project management Problem solving Uncertainty Risiko Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit Projektmanagement |
| url | http://www.gbv.de/dms/zbw/58529996X.pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=020539815&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
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