Assessing climate change: temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance
Gespeichert in:
| 1. Verfasser: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Buch |
| Sprache: | English |
| Veröffentlicht: |
Berlin [u.a.]
Springer
2010
|
| Ausgabe: | 2. ed. |
| Schriftenreihe: | Springer praxis books in environmental sciences
|
| Schlagworte: | |
| Online-Zugang: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Beschreibung: | XXIX, 473 S. Ill., graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9783642019876 |
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Datensatz im Suchindex
| _version_ | 1804141004947718144 |
|---|---|
| adam_text | Titel: Assessing climate change
Autor: Rapp, Donald
Jahr: 2010
Contents
Preface............................................. xi
List of figures........................................ xix
List of tables......................................... xxv
List of abbreviations and acronyms........................... xxvii
1 Historical variations in the Earth s climate .................. 1
1.1 Historical temperatures............................. 1
1.1.1 Use of proxies to estimate historical temperatures ..... 1
1.1.1.1 Tree rings ......................... 2
1.1.1.2 Ice cores .......................... 5
1.1.1.3 Ocean and stream sediments ............. 6
1.1.1.4 Pollen............................ 7
1.1.1.5 Boreholes.......................... 7
1.1.1.6 Corals............................ 9
1.1.2 Proxies and climate ......................... 9
1.1.2.1 Processing proxy data ................. 9
1.1.2.2 Challenges in using proxies .............. 10
1.2 Ice ages and interglacial periods ...................... 13
1.2.1 The Pleistocene ............................ 15
1.2.2 The last ice age............................ 19
1.2.3 Proposed explanations for ice ages ............... 22
1.2.3.1 Variations in the Earth s orbit and ice ages ... 22
1.2.3.2 Cosmos theory ...................... 25
1.2.3.3 Atlantic Ocean circulation variation ........ 26
1.2.4 Sudden climate changes....................... 27
1.2.4.1 Mechanisms behind sudden climate transitions. . 29
vi Contents
1.2.4.2 North Atlantic circulation as a trigger or an
amplifier in rapid climate changes.......... 29
1.2.4.3 Carbon dioxide as a feedback in sudden changes 33
1.2.4.4 Surface reflectivity (albedo) of ice, snow, and
vegetation.......................... 34
1.3 Holocene temperature history......................... 35
1.3.1 Introduction .............................. 35
1.3.2 Glacial sediments........................... 36
1.3.3 Plant pollen proxies.......................... 37
1.3.4 Borehole measurements....................... 37
1.3.5 Ocean sediment cores........................ 37
1.3.6 Other Holocene results ....................... 41
2 Temperatures in the past millennium....................... 43
2.1 The Little Ice Age and the Medieval Warm Period.......... 44
2.1.1 Anecdotal inferences on the MWP and the LIA....... 47
2.1.2 The Medieval Warm Period.................... 49
2.1.2.1 Climate models for the MWP: effects of changes
in land use......................... 49
2.1.2.2 Proxy analysis....................... 52
2.1.3 The Little Ice Age .......................... 61
2.1.4 Sea surface temperatures in the Sargasso Sea......... 66
2.1.5 Other proxy studies.......................... 66
2.1.5.1 China ............................ 66
2.1.5.2 Borehole measurements................. 71
2.1.5.3 Arctic environment change of the last four cen-
turies ............................ 71
2.1.5.4 Iceland perspective.................... 73
2.2 Average global and hemispheric temperatures in the past millen-
nium ......................................... 74
2.2.1 The MBH model ......................... 74
2.2.2 Other reconstructions of historical temperature ....... 79
2.2.3 Criticisms of the MBH model .................. 82
2.2.3.1 Mclntyre and McKitrick................ 82
2.2.3.2 Burger and Cubasch .................. 88
2.2.3.3 The Wegman Report .................. 89
2.2.3.4 Esper et al......................... 92
2.2.3.5 Soon and Baliunas.................... 92
2.2.3.6 Zorita and von Storch ................. 94
2.2.3.7 The paleoclimatic cabal ................ 94
2.2.3.8 How reliable are proxy methods? .......... 96
2.3 The blogs ..................................... 98
2.3.1 Climate audit blog.......................... 99
2.3.2 Real climate blog........................... 101
2.4 Conclusions on millennium temperature history ............ 104
Contents vii
3 Temperatures in the past century......................... 109
3.1 Near-surface measurements.......................... 109
3.1.1 Meteorological data sets ...................... 109
3.1.2 Problems with surface temperature data............ 112
3.1.3 Deviations from the mean..................... 115
3.1.4 Utility of a single global temperature.............. 116
3.2 Measured Earth, regional, and local temperatures........... 117
3.2.1 U.S. temperature measurements ................. 117
3.2.2 Global and hemispheric temperatures.............. 120
3.2.3 Antarctic and Arctic temperatures................ 126
3.2.3.1 Antarctic temperatures ................. 127
3.2.3.2 Arctic temperatures ................... 132
3.2.4 The NH temperature dip, 1940-1978: effect of aerosols . . 137
3.2.5 Adequacy of the global temperature network......... 142
3.2.6 Troposphere temperatures ..................... 151
3.2.7 Diurnal temperature range..................... 158
3.2.8 Ruminations of Bob Foster.................... 160
3.2.9 Earliest measured European and Greenland temperatures:
1751-1995................................ 161
3.2.9.1 European temperatures................. 161
3.2.9.2 Greenland temperatures................. 162
3.2.10 Mountain glaciers as climate indicators............. 163
Variability of the Sun................................. 167
4.1 Solar irradiance ................................. 167
4.1.1 Introduction .............................. 167
4.1.2 Measurements of TSI in space since 1978........... 169
4.1.3 Short-term TSI models ....................... 170
4.1.4 Long-term TSI models ....................... 170
4.2 Aspects of solar variability.......................... 171
4.2.1 The solar cycle ............................ 171
4.2.2 Sunspots ................................ 172
4.2.3 Faculae ................................. 172
4.2.4 Sunspot indices ............................ 173
4.2.5 Estimation of sunspot activity from proxies.......... 175
4.2.6 Diameter of the Sun......................... 178
4.2.7 Indices of solar activity....................... 178
4.2.8 Effect of the Sun-Earth distance................. 179
4.3 The Maunder Minimum; John Eddy s Study .............. 179
4.3.1 Historical telescope observations of sunspots......... 179
4.3.2 Historical records of aurorae ................... 180
4.3.3 Historical visual observations of sunspots........... 185
4.3.4 14Carbon in tree rings........................ 186
4.3.5 The solar corona........................... 186
viii Contents
4.3.6 Beckman and Mahoney on Eddy s work ........... 187
4.3.7 Eddy s conclusions.......................... 188
4.4 Reconstructing total solar irradiance (TSI) in the past........ 188
4.4.1 Reconstructions based on sunspots, solar cycles, and solar
activity ................................. 188
4.4.1.1 Introduction........................ 188
4.4.1.2 Hoyt and Schatten.................... 189
4.4.2 Constant quiet Sun models .................... 191
4.4.2.1 CQSM based on sunspot number.......... 191
4.4.2.2 CQSM based on sunspot area and cycle duration 196
4.4.3 The MM temperature model ................... 199
4.4.4 Stellar Ca HK index models ................... 202
4.4.5 Solar cycle duration model .................... 212
4.4.5.1 The Sun Melody ................... 212
4.4.5.2 Danish Meteorological Institute studies ...... 213
4.4.5.3 Hoyt and Schatten model............... 217
4.4.6 Coronal source flux model..................... 219
4.5 TSI reconstructions based on cosmogenic isotope proxies...... 221
4.5.1 Introduction.............................. 221
4.5.2 Reconstruction of TSI from cosmo-nuclide production
proxies.................................. 223
4.5.3 Projections for the Holocene.................... 224
4.6 Temperature changes driven by the Sun ................. 228
4.6.1 Global climate models ....................... 228
4.6.2 Climate sensitivity parameter ................... 230
4.7 Conclusions on TSI............................... 234
5 The Earth s heat balance and the greenhouse effect.............. 239
5.1 The greenhouse effect ............................. 239
5.1.1 Terrestrial examples ......................... 239
5.1.2 Simplistic models of the Earth .................. 241
5.2 The Earth s heat balance ........................... 243
5.2.1 Major heat flows........................... 243
5.2.2 Greenhouse gas effects and water vapor............ 244
5.2.2.1 Absorption by greenhouse gases........... 244
5.2.2.2 Water vapor as a greenhouse gas.......... 246
5.2.3 Albedo of the Earth......................... 254
5.2.4 Ocean emissivity ........................... 256
5.2.5 Heat islands of the Earth ..................... 256
5.2.5.1 Differences between surface temperatures and
tropospheric temperatures............... 256
5.2.5.2 Correlation of surface temperatures with CO2
sources ........................... 258
5.2.5.3 Urban heat islands ................... 259
5.2.5.4 Heat generation by urbanization........... 261
Contents ix
5.2.6 Effects of land use/land clearing changes ........... 262
5.2.7 Effect of clouds............................ 265
5.2.8 Heat capacity, time constant, and sensitivity of Earth s
climate system............................. 267
5.2.9 Heat content of the oceans .................... 270
5.2.10 El Nifios and climate ........................ 272
5.2.11 North Atlantic climate variability and ocean oscillations . 279
5.3 Volcanic eruptions ............................... 281
5.4 Global climate models............................. 287
5.4.1 Description of GCMs........................ 287
5.4.2 The IPCC view of climate models................ 288
5.4.3 Uncertainties and limitations of GCMs ............ 291
5.5 Instability of the climate ........................... 297
Anthropogenic influences on climate change................... 299
6.1 C02 concentration: past and present.................... 299
6.1.1 Measurements and proxies..................... 299
6.1.2 Carbon cycle: C02 fluxes...................... 302
6.1.3 CO2 variations in glacial-interglacial cycles.......... 307
6.1.4 C02 and global warming...................... 314
6.2 Projections of future C02 concentration by climatologists...... 316
6.3 Projections of future global temperature rise due to C02....... 322
6.4 Energy and climate in the 21st century.................. 326
6.5 Constraints on C02 production imposed by the limits of fossil fuels 331
6.6 An alternate theory of 20th-century global warming.......... 332
6.6.1 Introduction............................... 332
6.6.2 Black carbon (BC) deposition on Arctic snow and ice . . . 340
6.6.2.1 Effect of carbon deposition on Ice and snow . . . 340
6.6.2.2 Rate of emission of carbon in the 20th century . 341
6.6.2.3 Estimated role of BC in Arctic warming...... 341
6.6.2.4 Measurement of BC in Greenland ice cores .... 343
6.6.3 Role of sulfate aerosols and El Nifios.............. 344
6.6.4 Summary................................. 345
Impacts of global warming.............................. 347
7.1 Global-warming alarmists........................... 347
7.1.1 The alarmist viewpoint........................ 347
7.1.2 Orthodoxy in climatology and the politicalization of science 353
7.2 Global-warming naysayers .......................... 361
7.3 Sea level rise, the ice sheets, and sea ice ................. 364
7.3.1 Introduction to sea level rise.................... 364
7.3.2 Direct measurements of sea level................. 366
7.3.3 Measurements of ice sheet and sea ice extent......... 370
7.3.4 Global warming and sea level rise................ 374
7.3.5 Sea ice extent.............................. 381
7.4 Future increases in global temperature .................. 386
x Contents
7.5 Changes in precipitation: floods, drought, and storms ........ 388
7.5.1 Drought................................. 388
7.5.2 Floods.................................. 389
7.5.3 Storms.................................. 389
7.6 Species extinction................................. 393
8 Global climate change and public policy..................... 395
8.1 The Kyoto Protocol............................... 395
8.1.1 Description of the Kyoto Protocol ............... 395
8.1.2 Status of the Kyoto Agreement ................. 396
8.1.3 Commentary on Kyoto Protocol................. 398
8.2 Economics: Will it cost more to do nothing? .............. 402
8.2.1 The Stern Report........................... 402
8.2.2 Nordhaus Review of Stern Report ............... 405
8.2.3 Investment opportunities in climate change........... 409
8.3 U.S. Congress: meeting the climate change challenge......... 410
9 Final remarks...................................... 413
9.1 Conclusions.................................... 413
9.2 The nine questions ............................... 421
Appendix: Review of the film An Inconvenient Truth................ 427
References........................................... 437
Index.............................................. 467
|
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| series2 | Springer praxis books in environmental sciences |
| spelling | Rapp, Donald 1934- Verfasser (DE-588)135633494 aut Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Donald Rapp 2. ed. Berlin [u.a.] Springer 2010 XXIX, 473 S. Ill., graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Springer praxis books in environmental sciences Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd rswk-swf Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 gnd rswk-swf Sonnenstrahlung (DE-588)4139254-1 gnd rswk-swf Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 s Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 s DE-604 Sonnenstrahlung (DE-588)4139254-1 s HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018875489&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Rapp, Donald 1934- Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 gnd Sonnenstrahlung (DE-588)4139254-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4164199-1 (DE-588)4344515-9 (DE-588)4139254-1 |
| title | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance |
| title_auth | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance |
| title_exact_search | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance |
| title_full | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Donald Rapp |
| title_fullStr | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Donald Rapp |
| title_full_unstemmed | Assessing climate change temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance Donald Rapp |
| title_short | Assessing climate change |
| title_sort | assessing climate change temperatures solar radiation and heat balance |
| title_sub | temperatures, solar radiation, and heat balance |
| topic | Klimaänderung (DE-588)4164199-1 gnd Erwärmung Meteorologie (DE-588)4344515-9 gnd Sonnenstrahlung (DE-588)4139254-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Klimaänderung Erwärmung Meteorologie Sonnenstrahlung |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018875489&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT rappdonald assessingclimatechangetemperaturessolarradiationandheatbalance |