Business forecasting: a practical approach
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
New York, NY [u.a.]
Routledge
2010
|
| Edition: | 2. ed. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Includes bibliographical references and index |
| Physical Description: | XII, 369 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780415988551 9780415988568 9780203874011 |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | BUSINESS FORECASTING A PRACTICAL APPROACH SECOND EDITION A. REZA
HOSHMAND, PH.D. CITY UNIVERSITY OF HONG KONG HONG KONG, CHINA FJ
ROUTLEDGE JJJ & TAYLOR & FRANCIS CROUP NEW YORK AND LONDON CONTENTS
PREFACE XI 1 FORECASTING FOR MANAGEMENT DECISIONS: AN INTRODUCTION 1 1.1
FORECASTING AND DECISION MAKING 2 1.2 THE ART AND SCIENCE OF FORECASTING
4 1.3 THE FORECASTING PROCESS 5 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING 8 2
DATA PATTERNS AND CHOICE OF FORFECASTING TECHNIQUES 9 2.1 DATA PATTERNS
9 2.2 FORECASTING METHODOLOGIES 17 2.3 TECHNIQUE SELECTION 19 2.4 MODEL
EVALUATION 22 CHAPTER SUMMARY 30 REVIEW QUESTIONS 31 REFERENCES AND
SUGGESTED READING 34 3 THE MACROECONOMY AND BUSINESS FORECASTS 36 3. 1
PHASES OF THE BUSINESS CYCLE 36 3.2 MACROECONOMIC MODELS AND FORECASTING
39 3.3 USE OF MACROECONOMIC MODELS AT THE INDUSTRY AND FIRM LEVEL 40
CHAPTER SUMMARY 42 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING 44 VIII CONTENTS 4
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS IN FORECASTING 46 4.1 PRELIMINARY
ADJUSTMENTS TO DATA 46 4.2 DATA TRANSFORMATION 52 4.3 PATTERNS IN TIME
SERIES DATA 58 4-4 THE CLASSICAL DECOMPOSITION METHOD OF TIME SERIES
FORECASTING 60 CHAPTER SUMMARY 91 CASE STUDY 92 REVIEW QUESTIONS 94
REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING 100 5 FORECASTING WITH SMOOTHING
TECHNIQUES 101 5.1 NAIVE MODEL 102 5.2 FORECASTING WITH AVERAGING MODELS
105 5.3 EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING MODELS 112 5.4 HIGHER FORM OF SMOOTHING
118 CHAPTER SUMMARY 134 CASE STUDY 135 REVIEW QUESTIONS 140 REFERENCES
AND SUGGESTED READING 144 APPENDIX: USE OF EXCEL 146 *; 6 ADAPTIVE
FILTERING AS A FORECASTING TECHNIQUE 149 CHAPTER SUMMARY 158 . REVIEW
QUESTIONS 160 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING 163 7 FORECASTING WITH
SIMPLE REGRESSION 164 7. 1 REGRESSION ANALYSIS: THE LINEAR MODEL 166 7.2
THE STANDARD ERROR OF ESTIMATE 173 7.3 CORRELATION ANALYSIS 176 7.4
INFERENCES REGARDING REGRESSION AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS 182 7.5 AN
APPLICATION USING EXCEL 185 7.6 THE ASSUMPTIONS OF THE REGRESSION MODEL
190 7.7 CURVILINEAR REGRESSION ANALYSIS 194 CHAPTER SUMMARY 200 REVIEW
QUESTIONS 200 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING 204 CONTENTS IX 8
FORECASTING WITH MULTIPLE REGRESSION 206 8. 1 ESTIMATING THE MULTIPLE
REGRESSION EQUATION * THE LEAST SQUARES METHOD 207 8.2 THE STANDARD
ERROR OF ESTIMATE 212 8.3 MULTIPLE CORRELATION ANALYSIS 213 8.4
INFERENCES REGARDING THE REGRESSION AND CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS 217 8.5
VALIDATION OF THE REGRESSION MODEL FOR FORECASTING 222 8.6 CURVILINEAR
REGRESSION ANALYSIS 237 V 8.7 APPLICATION TO MANAGEMENT 239 CHAPTER
SUMMARY 240 REVIEW QUESTIONS 241 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING 244 9
ADVANCED REGRESSION METHODOLOGIES IN FORECASTING 246 9. 1 PROXY AND
DUMMY VARIABLES 246 9.2 SELECTION OF INDEPENDENT VARIABLES 253 9.3
LAGGED VARIABLES 257 CHAPTER SUMMARY 264 . REVIEW QUESTIONS 266
REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING 268 10 THE BOX*JENKINS METHOD OF
FORECASTING 270 10.1 THE BOX-JENKINS MODELS 271 10.2 FORECASTING WITH
AUTOREGRESSIVE (AR) MODELS 277 10.3 FORECASTING WITH MOVING AVERAGE (MA)
MODELS 279 10.4 AUTOREGRESSIVE INTEGRATED MOVING AVERAGE (ARIMA) MODELS
281 10.5 TRENDS AND SEASONALITY IN TIME SERIES 281 CHAPTER SUMMARY 300
CASE STUDY 303 REVIEW QUESTIONS 305 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING 307
X CONTENTS 11 COMMUNICATING FORECASTS TO MANAGEMENT 309 11.1 FORECASTS
AND THEIR USE IN MANAGERIAL DECISIONS 309 11.2 PRESENTATION OF FORECASTS
TO MANAGEMENT 309 11.3 THE FUTURE OF BUSINESS FORECASTING 313 CHAPTER
SUMMARY 314 REFERENCES AND SUGGESTED READING 314 APPENDICES 316 A
STUDENT / DISTRIBUTION 316 B CRITICAL VALUES FOR THE F DISTRIBUTION 318
C THE DURBIN-WATSON STATISTIC 323 D CHI-SQUARE (X 2 ) DISTRIBUTION 326 E
MINITAB GUIDE 328 INDEX 363
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
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| ctrlnum | (OCoLC)729936741 (DE-599)GBV591379554 |
| dewey-full | 330.0112 |
| dewey-hundreds | 300 - Social sciences |
| dewey-ones | 330 - Economics |
| dewey-raw | 330.0112 |
| dewey-search | 330.0112 |
| dewey-sort | 3330.0112 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| edition | 2. ed. |
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| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T22:08:47Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780415988551 9780415988568 9780203874011 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2009003507 |
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| physical | XII, 369 S. graph. Darst. |
| publishDate | 2010 |
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| publishDateSort | 2010 |
| publisher | Routledge |
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| spelling | Hoshmand, A. Reza Verfasser (DE-588)12858078X aut Business forecasting a practical approach A. Reza Hoshmand 2. ed. New York, NY [u.a.] Routledge 2010 XII, 369 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Includes bibliographical references and index Business forecasting / Data processing Datenverarbeitung Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 s Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 s DE-604 GBV Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018864368&sequence=000001&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Hoshmand, A. Reza Business forecasting a practical approach Business forecasting / Data processing Datenverarbeitung Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4066399-1 (DE-588)4139119-6 |
| title | Business forecasting a practical approach |
| title_auth | Business forecasting a practical approach |
| title_exact_search | Business forecasting a practical approach |
| title_full | Business forecasting a practical approach A. Reza Hoshmand |
| title_fullStr | Business forecasting a practical approach A. Reza Hoshmand |
| title_full_unstemmed | Business forecasting a practical approach A. Reza Hoshmand |
| title_short | Business forecasting |
| title_sort | business forecasting a practical approach |
| title_sub | a practical approach |
| topic | Business forecasting / Data processing Datenverarbeitung Wirtschaft (DE-588)4066399-1 gnd Konjunkturprognose (DE-588)4139119-6 gnd |
| topic_facet | Business forecasting / Data processing Datenverarbeitung Wirtschaft Konjunkturprognose |
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