Forecasting financial markets: the psychology of successful investing
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
London [u.a.]
Kogan Page
2010
|
| Edition: | 6. ed. |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XVII, 402 S. graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9780749456375 |
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| adam_text | Titel: Forecasting financial markets
Autor: Plummer, Tony
Jahr: 2010
Contents
Foreword xiii
Preface to the sixth edition xv
Acknowledgements xix
Introduction 1
Part One: The logic of non-rational behaviour in financial
markets
1 Wholly individual or indivisibly whole 9
Introduction 9; The relationships in nature 10; The break
with tradition 10; The conceptual revolution 11; The
problem of motivation 11; The dualistic nature of
motivation 12; Conclusion 13
2 Two s a crowd 15
Introduction 15; The influence of groups 16; The insights
of Gustave Le Bon 16; The group s ability to organize
itself 17; Mind as a dynamic principle 18; The group
mind 19; The triune human brain 20; The neocortex 21;
The amygdala 22; The response to a threat 22;
The intelligence of crowd 23
3 The individual in the crowd ? 26
The integrative tendency 26; Identification 26; Beliefs 27;
Self-awareness and confirmity enforcement 27; The crowd
leader 28; The findings of Stanley Milgram 29; Altruism
and conflict 29; Splitting and projection 30; Conclusion 30
vi Contents
4 The systems approach to crowd behaviour 33
Introduction 33; Non-equilibrium conditions 34; Openness
to the environment: the exchange of energy 34; Openness
to the environment: the exchange of information 35; The
mechanism for transmitting information 35; Feedback
loops and the transformation of information 36;
Oscillating systems 37; The role of the crowd leader 37;
The interrelationship between a crowd and its
environment 38; Conclusion 39
5 Cycles in the crowd 41
Introduction 41; The life cycle 41; Co-evolution 43; Limit
cycles 44; Limit cycles through time 45; Limits cycles in
nature 46; Multiple limit cycles 47; Multiple cycles in two
dimensions 48; The impact of shocks 48; The profile of
shocks 49; Shocks in two dimensions 50; Some insights
into social change 50
6 Approaches to forecasting crowd behaviour 54
Introduction 54; Random or non-random 54; Price
movements in the Dow 55; Strange attractors 58;
Predictable price movements 60; Methods of predicting
price movements 60; Economic forecasting 61; Problems
with economic forecasting 61; Problems with conceptual
framework 62; The rational expectations hypothesis 63;
Bubbles and crashes 64; Non-linear mathematics 65; The
challenge to economic theory 65; Technical analysis 66;
The past and present as a guide to the future 67; The
rationale behind technical analysis 67
Part Two: The dynamics of the bull-bear cycle
7 The stock market crowd 73
Introduction 73; The individual investor 73; The dealing
strategy 74; The financial market crowd 74; The influence
of emotions 76; The herd instinct 76; The mechanism
of price fluctuations 77; The bull-bear life cycle in
emotions 78; The objectives of technical analysis 78; The
influence of price movements on crowd psychology 79;
The contest between the two crowds 79; The influence of
prices on behaviour 80; The shift from isolation to
belonging 80; The limit cycle between prices and
behaviour 81; Beliefs and leadership 82; Individuals as
crowd leaders 82; The conditions for effective
leadership 83; Investment advisers 83; Conclusion 84
Contents vii
8 The shape of the bull-bear cycle 87
Introduction 87; The limit cycle between prices and
sentiment 88; The bias in the limit cycle 89; The influence
of external factors 90; The limit cycle between equity
markets and the economy 91; The influence of shocks 92;
Pro-trend shocks 93; Contra-trend shocks and energy
gaps 93; Shocks and the limit cycle 94; The return to the
»^ limit cycle 95; Practical implications 97; The pattern of
adjustment after troughs 97; The reversal process 98; The
idealized three-stage reversal pattern 99; The influence of
fear 100; The bias in the bull-bear cycle 101; Asymmetric
investment attitudes 101; The price pulse 102; The time
hierarchy 103; Price-sentiment limit cycles 103; Limit
cycles and the transmission of shocks 103; The hierarchy
of fluctuations 104; Conclusion 104
9 Energy gaps and pro-trend shocks 108
Introduction 108; Energy gaps 110; Bridging energy
gaps 111; Bridging the first energy gaps in financial
markets 112; Bridging the second energy gap in financial
markets 113; The importance of timing 115; Pro-trend
shocks in financial markets 116; Energy gaps and
information flows 118; Changes in the quality of
information 119; Identifying the shock point 120;
The pattern of a trend 120; Conclusion 121
10 The spiral and the golden ratio 124
Introduction 124; The mathematics of the spiral 124; The
Fibonacci number sequence 125; Fibonacci s rabbit
problem 126; The Fibonacci sequence and nature 126;
The properties of the Fibonacci sequence 127; The
important ratios 128; The golden ratio 128; The golden
ratio in geometry 128; The golden mearare and the human
body 129; The golden measure in nature 130; Three terms
from two 130; The golden rectangle and the golden
ratio 131; The spiral of rectangles 132; The golden
spiral 132; Properties of the golden spiral 133; The golden
measure and ancient religious insight 134; The laws of
life 135; Information and the human mind 135;
Recognizing information 136; Understanding by
analogy 136; Creative insight 137; Self-organizing
hierarchies 137; Metaphor and reality 138; Financial
market crowds 139; The golden measure and financial
markets 140
viii Foreword
11 The mathematical basis of price movements 142
Introduction 142; The calculation of price targets 143; The
application of the target formula 144; Examples from the
UK gilt-edged market 146; additional examples 148;
Examples from the US Treasury bond market 151;
Conclusion 153
12 The shape of things to come 155
Introduction 155; Examples 155; Price and momentum 158;
Momentum examples 159; Imitations of cyclicality 160;
Stylized patterns 162; Asymmetry 162; Conclusion 163
Part Three: Forecasting turning points
13 The phenomenon of cycles 167
Introduction 167; The influence of groups 168;
Satiation 169; Transformation of energy and
information 169; The patterns that connects 170; Tracking
the cycle 171; Momentum indices 171; Momentum and the
cycle 172; Anticipating inflexion points 173; Velocity and
non-confirmation 174; Acceleration and the cycle 175;
Conclusion 176
14 The threefold nature of cycles 178
Introduction 178; The 11 % -year cycle in the Dow 178;
Idealized cycles 181; Comparing the cycles 182; The
1VA -year cycle and the panic of 2008 186; Actual cycle
timings 188; The four-year cycle in the Dow 189; Triads,
dyads and energy gaps 189; The 1987 Crash 190;
Confirming the energy gap 193; The Wall Street
Crash 193; Cycle characteristics 194; Cycle functions 195;
Cycle translation 196; Translations within a triad 196; The
influence of higher-level cycles 197; Cycle biases and
energy gaps 198; Cycle behavioural traits 199;
Behavioural traits in a base cycle 199; Behavioural traits
in a trend cycle 200; Behavioural traits in a terminal
cycle 200; A schematic for financial markets 201; Limited
cycle patterns 202; Conclusion 202
15 Economic cycles 205
Introduction 205; Note on economic theory 206; An
integrative view 207; Relationships between economic
cycles 208; From Kitchin to Strauss and Howe 208; From
Contents ix
Strauss and Howe to Kitchin 208; Kuznets and
Kondratyev 209; Economic theory and technical analysis
210; Cycle characteristics 211; Biases in cycles 211; An
example from history 213; Juglar cycles during the 1946
to 1980 Berry cycle 213; Theory and fact 214; The first
cycle 215; The second cycle 215; The third cycle 216;
Evolution 217; Labelling the cycles 218; Conclusion 219
16 Recurrence in economic and financial activity 221
Introduction 221; Economic and financial market
cycles 221; Searching for cycles 222; The 1866-94
cycle 223; The 1894-1921 cycle 224; The 1921-46
cycle 225; Strauss and Howe meta-cycle 226; The Berry
terminal cycle 227; The first Juglar cycle 228; The second
Juglar cycle 228; The third Juglar cycle 229; Confirming
the 1946 low 229; The 1946-80 Berry adaptation
cycle 230; The 1970-80 Juglar cycle 231; The Kitchin
triad 23.1; The post-1980 Berry regeneration cycle 233;
The Juglar transition and innovation cycles 234; Kitchin
cycles in the Juglar innovation cycle 235; The Juglar
disruption cycle 235; Kitchin cycles in the Juglar
disruption cycle 237; Conclusion 238
17 Integrating the cycles 240
Introduction 240; Historical schematic 240; Historical
experience 242; Survey of the schematic diagram 243; The
differing nature of upswings and downswings 245; Using
the schematic diagram 246; Disruption vs depression 247;
The next Berry crisis cycle 248; Kondratyev cycles 248;
The post-1949 Kondratyev cycle 251; Price cycles and
output cycles 253; Kondratyev, Berry, and Strauss and
Howe 254; Juglar disruption and Berry crisis 255;
Conclusion 257
18 Forecasting with cycles 259
Introduction 259; The post-1980 Berry cycle 259; Cycle
alignment 260; Sentiment in a Juglar innovation cycle
261; Sentiment in the Juglar disruption cycle 262;
Comparisons with previous terminal cycles 263;
Comparisons with averages of previous cycles 265;
Financial markets and the economy 266; Conclusion 268
x Contents
19 Price patterns in financial markets 269
Introduction 269; Hierarchical trends 269; Markets and
fundamental trends 270; Economic cycles, price patterns
and price trends 271; The pattern of a trend 271; The
five-three wave pattern in complex structures 272; The
Elliott wave principle 273; Investment guidelines 274;
The buy signal after a low 274; Warning of a bear
phase 275; The terminal cycle 276; The location of
corrections 277; The strength of a contra-trend rallies 279;
Non-confirmation revisited 279; Anticipating turning
points 281; The golden ratio formulae 281; Some
examples 282; Conclusion 284
20 The Elliott wave principle 285
Elliott s discovery 285; The price pulse as the basis of the
wave principle 286; The basic wave pattern 286;
Corrections 287; A universal phenomenon 287; The wave
principle as a natural phenomenon 288; Derived rules:
trend indications 288; Derived rules: impulse waves 289;
Derived rules: corrections 289; Complications within the
system 289; Fifth-wave variations: failures and extension
290; Behaviour following failure or extension 290; Fifth-
wave variations: diagonal triangles 292; Variations in
corrections: the three-phase A-wave 292; The flat
correction 293; Complex corrections 294; Triangles 295;
The implications of a triangle 295; Inverted corrections
297; The rule of alternation 297; The problem with the
Elliott wave principle 298
21 Information shocks and corrections 301
Introduction 301; Information shocks 301; Information
shocks and a five-wave trend 302; Shocks and cycles 302;
Information shocks and boundaries 305; Corrections and
shocks 306; The golden ratio boundaries 308; Technical
corrections and fundamental reversals 308; Top
retractments 309; Base retractments 311; Corrections
and trend reversals 312; The 1987 Crash and the 2000-02
bear 312; Hierarchical structuring 313; Guidelines for
calculating boundaries 315; Pro-trend shocks 316; A
practical example 318; The base pattern 318; The wave 4
correction 319; The dollar-yen bear market 320;
Conclusion 321
Contents xi
22 The confirmation of buy and sell signals 323
Introduction 323; Investor confidence and price
flucuations 324; Overextended markets and the principle
of non-confirmation 324; Indicators of investor behaviour
325; Volume and open interest 326; The level of volume
327; The level of open interest 327; Sudden changes in
indicators 328; The direction and change in volume and
open interest 328; Changing emotions during the cycle
328; Sharp rises in volume and open interest 329; The
reversal process 329; Volume and open interest during
fifth waves 329; Volume and open interest during re-tests
330; The wider implications of falling open interest 331;
Momentum and overextended markets 333; Momentum
and non-confirmation 333; Measures of momentum 333;
Raters of change 334; Deviations from a moving average
335; The relative strength index (RSI) 336; Momentum
trading rules 337; The directional indicator 337; The
advance-decline index 338; A second price index 339; The
principle of direct confirmation: the Dow theory 339; The
principle of direct confirmation: other indicies 343;
Conclusion 343
Part Four: The psychology of trading
23 The psychology of fear 349
Introduction 349; The subconscious mind 350; The role of
habits 351; The response to a threat 352; Stress 354; The
influence of emotions 355; Beliefs and memories 356;
Conclusion 358
24 The troubled trader 361
Introduction 361; The three-part mind 362; The
psychological matrix 362; Basic personality types 363;
Primary behavioural characteristics 364; The gut-oriented
personality 365; The heart-oriented personality 366; The
head-oriented personality 366; The chink in the ego s
armour 367; Basic motivations 367: Avoidance
compulsions 368; Response strategies 369; Some
awkward personal questions 370; The threat from financial
markets 371; Financial markets and personal space 372;
Financial markets and the self-image 372; Financial
markets and fear 373: The emergence of the crowd 374;
Conclusion 374
xii Contents
25 The psychology of success 377
Introduction 377; Basic requirements 377; Goal-
setting 378; Goals for the trader 379; Practical
considerations 380; The five aspects of effective goal-
setting 381; Converting desires into actual beliefs 383;
Visualization 383; Writing down and affirmations 384;
Strategy for achieving goals 385; Strategies for traders
386; Method 386; Energy 387; Physical health 387;
Mental and emotional health 388; Stress 389; Relaxation
techniques 390; Conclusion 391
26 Summary and conclusions 393
Index 397
|
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| spelling | Plummer, Tony Verfasser aut Forecasting financial markets the psychology of successful investing Tony Plummer 6. ed. London [u.a.] Kogan Page 2010 XVII, 402 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Stock price forecasting Investment analysis Investments Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd rswk-swf Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 gnd rswk-swf Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 s Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018666367&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Plummer, Tony Forecasting financial markets the psychology of successful investing Stock price forecasting Investment analysis Investments Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 gnd |
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| title | Forecasting financial markets the psychology of successful investing |
| title_auth | Forecasting financial markets the psychology of successful investing |
| title_exact_search | Forecasting financial markets the psychology of successful investing |
| title_full | Forecasting financial markets the psychology of successful investing Tony Plummer |
| title_fullStr | Forecasting financial markets the psychology of successful investing Tony Plummer |
| title_full_unstemmed | Forecasting financial markets the psychology of successful investing Tony Plummer |
| title_short | Forecasting financial markets |
| title_sort | forecasting financial markets the psychology of successful investing |
| title_sub | the psychology of successful investing |
| topic | Stock price forecasting Investment analysis Investments Prognose (DE-588)4047390-9 gnd Kreditmarkt (DE-588)4073788-3 gnd |
| topic_facet | Stock price forecasting Investment analysis Investments Prognose Kreditmarkt |
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