Verfügbarkeit: This time is different

This time is different: eight centuries of financial folly

An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.

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Bibliographische Detailangaben
Hauptverfasser:	Reinhart, Carmen M. 1955- (VerfasserIn), Rogoff, Kenneth S. 1953- (VerfasserIn)
Format:	Buch
Sprache:	English
Veröffentlicht:	Princeton, NJ [u.a.] Princeton Univ. Press 2009
Schlagworte:	Geschichte 1200-2009 Geschichte Geschichte 2007-2009 Financial crises / Case studies Fiscal policy / Case studies Business cycles / Case studies Business cycles > Case studies Financial crises > Case studies Fiscal policy > Case studies Inflation Konjunkturabschwung Schuldenkrise Konjunkturzyklus Abwertung Finanzkrise Wirtschaftspsychologie Anlageverhalten Finanzpolitik USA Fallstudiensammlung
Online-Zugang:	Inhaltsverzeichnis Klappentext
Zusammenfassung:	An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years.
Beschreibung:	Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke. - Literaturverz. S. [409] - 433
Beschreibung:	XLV, 463 S. graph. Darst.
ISBN:	9780691142166 9780691152646

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Datensatz im Suchindex

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adam_text	CONTENTS LIST OF TABLES xiii LIST OF FIGURES xvii LIST OF BOXES xxiii PREFACE xxv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS xxxvii PREAMBLE: SOME INITIAL INTUITIONS ON FINANCIAL FRAGILITY AND THE FICKLE NATURE OF CONFIDENCE xxxix PART I Financial Crises: An Operational Primer 1 1 Varieties of Crises and Their Dates 3 Crises Deňned by Quantitative Thresholds: Inflation, Currency Crashes, and Debasement 4 Crises Defined by Events: Banking Crises and External and Domestic Default 8 Other Key Concepts 14 2 Debt Intolerance: The Genesis of Serial Default 21 Debt Thresholds 21 CONTENTS Measuring Vulnerability 25 Clubs and Regions 27 Reflections on Debt Intolerance 29 3 A Global Database on Financial Crises with a Long-Term View 34 Prices, Exchange Rates, Currency Debasement, and Real GDP 35 Government Finances and National Accounts 39 Public Debt and Its Composition 40 Global Variables 43 Country Coverage 43 PART II Sovereign External Debt Crises 49 4 A Digression on the Theoretical Underpinnings of Debt Crises 51 Sovereign Lending 54 Illiquidity versus Insolvency 59 Partial Default and Rescheduling 61 Odious Debt 63 Domestic Public Debt 64 Conclusions 67 5 Cycles of Sovereign Default on External Debt 68 Recurring Patterns 68 Default and Banking Crises 73 Default and Inflation 75 Global Factors and Cycles of Global External Default 77 The Duration of Default Episodes 81 vin CONTENTS 6 External Default through History 86 The Early History of Serial Default: Emerging Europe, 1300-1799 86 Capital Inflows and Default: An "Old World" Story 89 External Sovereign Default after 1800: A Global Picture 89 PART III The Forgotten History of Domestic Debt and Default 101 7 The Stylized Facts of Domestic Debt and Default 103 Domestic and External Debt 103 Maturity, Rates of Return, and Currency Composition 105 Episodes of Domestic Default 110 Some Caveats Regarding Domestic Debt 111 8 Domestic Debt: The Missing Link Explaining External Default and High Inflation 119 Understanding the Debt Intolerance Puzzle 119 Domestic Debt on the Eve and in the Aftermath of External Default 123 The Literature on Inflation and the "Inflation Tax" 124 Defining the Tax Base: Domestic Debt or the Monetary Base? 125 The "Temptation to Inflate" Revisited 127 9 Domestic and External Default: Which Is Worse? Who Is Senior? 128 Real GDP in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129 Inflation in the Run-up to and the Aftermath of Debt Defaults 129 The Incidence of Default on Debts Owed to External and Domestic Creditors 133 Summary and Discussion of Selected Issues 136 ix CONTENTS PART IV Banking Crises, Inflation, and Currency Crashes 139 10 Banking Crises 141 A Preamble on the Theory of Banking Crises 143 Banking Crises: An Equal-Opportunity Menace 147 Banking Crises, Capital Mobility, and Financial Liberalization 155 Capital Flow Bonanzas, Credit Cycles, and Asset Prices 157 Overcapacity Bubbles in the Financial Industry? 162 The Fiscal Legacy of Financial Crises Revisited 162 Living with the Wreckage: Some Observations 171 11 Default through Debasement: An "Old World Favorite" 174 12 Inflation and Modern Currency Crashes 180 An Early History of Inflation Crises 181 Modern Inflation Crises: Regional Comparisons 182 Currency Crashes 189 The Aftermath of High Inflation and Currency Collapses 191 Undoing Domestic Dollarization 193 PARTV The U.S. Subprime Meltdown and the Second Great Contraction 199 13 The U.S. Subprime Crisis: An International and Historical Comparison 203 A Global Historical View of the Subprime Crisis and Its Aftermath 204 CONTENTS The This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome and the Run-up to the Subprime Crisis 208 Risks Posed by Sustained U.S. Borrowing from the Rest of the World: The Debate before the Crisis 208 The Episodes of Postwar Bank-Centered Financial Crisis 215 A Comparison of the Subprime Crisis with Past Crises in Advanced Economies 216 Summary 221 14 The Aftermath of Financial Crises 223 Historical Episodes Revisited 225 The Downturn after a Crisis: Depth and Duration 226 The Fiscal Legacy of Crises 231 Sovereign Risk 232 Comparisons with Experiences from the First Great Contraction in the 1930s 233 Concluding Remarks 238 15 The International Dimensions of the Subprime Crisis: The Results of Contagion or Common Fundamentals? 240 Concepts of Contagion 241 Selected Earlier Episodes 241 Common Fundamentals and the Second Great Contraction 242 Are More Spillovers Under Way? 246 16 Composite Measures of Financial Turmoil 248 Developing a Composite Index of Crises: The BCDI Index 249 Defining a Global Financial Crisis 260 The Sequencing of Crises: A Prototype 270 Summary 273 xi CONTENTS PART VI What Have We Learned? 275 17 Reflections on Early Warnings, Graduation, Policy Responses, and the Foibles of Human Nature 277 On Early Warnings of Crises 278 The Role of International Institutions 281 Graduation 283 Some Observations on Policy Responses 287 The Latest Version of the This-Time-Is-Different Syndrome 290 DATA APPENDIXES 293 A.I. Macroeconomic Time Series 295 A.2. Public Debt 327 A.3. Dates of Banking Crises 344 A.4. Historical Summaries of Banking Crises 348 NOTES 393 REFERENCES 409 NAME INDEX 435 SUBJECT INDEX 443 Xli $35.00 (continued from β hroughout history, rich and poor countries alike have been unemployment, and government revenues lending, borrowing, crashing — around these crises. While countries do and recovering — their way through an weather their financial storms, Reinhart extraordinary range of financial crises. and Rogoff prove that short memories Each time, the experts have chimed, "this make it all too easy for crises to recur. time is different" — claiming that the old rules of valuation no longer apply and that An important book that will affect policy the new situation bears little similarity discussions for a long time to come, to past disasters. This book proves that exposes centuries of premise wrong. Covering sixty-six coun¬ financial missteps. tries across five continents, presents a comprehensive look at the varieties of financial crises, is professor of and guides us through eight astonishing economics at the University of Maryland. centuries of government defaults, bank¬ She recently coedited The First Global ing panics, and inflationary spikes — from Financial Crisis of the 21st Century and medieval currency debasements to today's is a regular lecturer at the International subprime catastrophe. Carmen Reinhart Monetary Fund and the World Bank. and Kenneth Rogoff, leading economists whose work has been influential in the is the Thomas D. policy debate concerning the current Cabot Professor of Public Policy and financial crisis, provocatively argue that professor of economics at Harvard Uni¬ financial combustions are universal rites versity. He is the coauthor of Foundations of passage for emerging and established of International Macroeconomics, and a market nations. The authors draw impor¬ frequent commentator for NPR, the Wall tant lessons from history to show us how- Street Journal, and the Financial Times. much — or how little — we have learned. Using clear, sharp analysis and com¬ prehensive data. Reinhart and Rogoff document that financial fallouts occur in clusters and strike with surprisingly consistent frequency, duration, and feroc¬ ity. They examine the patterns of currency crashes, high and hyperinflation, and government defaults on international and domestic debts — as well as the cycles in Jacket design bv Karl Spurzem housing and equity prices, capital flows. To receive emails about ne j our area of interest, sign up at press .princeton.edu
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genre	(DE-588)4522595-3 Fallstudiensammlung gnd-content
genre_facet	Fallstudiensammlung
geographic	USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd
geographic_facet	USA
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indexdate	2025-01-10T19:02:05Z
institution	BVB
isbn	9780691142166 9780691152646
language	English
lccn	2009022616
oai_aleph_id	oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-018631106
oclc_num	317923342
open_access_boolean
owner	DE-M382 DE-12 DE-703 DE-20 DE-29 DE-19 DE-BY-UBM DE-N2 DE-945 DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-523 DE-739 DE-859 DE-92 DE-1043 DE-83 DE-384 DE-11 DE-2070s DE-188 DE-522 DE-521 DE-573 DE-473 DE-BY-UBG
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physical	XLV, 463 S. graph. Darst.
publishDate	2009
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publisher	Princeton Univ. Press
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spelling	Reinhart, Carmen M. 1955- Verfasser (DE-588)128390883 aut This time is different eight centuries of financial folly Carmen M. Reinhart ; Kenneth S. Rogoff Princeton, NJ [u.a.] Princeton Univ. Press 2009 XLV, 463 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Hier auch später erschienene, unveränderte Nachdrucke. - Literaturverz. S. [409] - 433 An empirical investigation of financial crises during the last 800 years. Geschichte 1200-2009 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte gnd rswk-swf Geschichte 2007-2009 gnd rswk-swf Financial crises / Case studies Fiscal policy / Case studies Business cycles / Case studies Business cycles Case studies Financial crises Case studies Fiscal policy Case studies Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturabschwung (DE-588)4200325-8 gnd rswk-swf Schuldenkrise (DE-588)4200280-1 gnd rswk-swf Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 gnd rswk-swf Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd rswk-swf Abwertung (DE-588)4141203-5 gnd rswk-swf Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd rswk-swf Wirtschaftspsychologie (DE-588)4066506-9 gnd rswk-swf Anlageverhalten (DE-588)4214003-1 gnd rswk-swf Finanzpolitik (DE-588)4127795-8 gnd rswk-swf USA (DE-588)4078704-7 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4522595-3 Fallstudiensammlung gnd-content Finanzpolitik (DE-588)4127795-8 s DE-604 Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 s Abwertung (DE-588)4141203-5 s Anlageverhalten (DE-588)4214003-1 s Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 s Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 s Schuldenkrise (DE-588)4200280-1 s Wirtschaftspsychologie (DE-588)4066506-9 s Geschichte z DE-188 Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 s 1\p DE-604 USA (DE-588)4078704-7 g Konjunkturabschwung (DE-588)4200325-8 s 2\p DE-604 Geschichte 2007-2009 z Geschichte 1200-2009 z Rogoff, Kenneth S. 1953- Verfasser (DE-588)128551933 aut Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018631106&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis Digitalisierung UB Bayreuth application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018631106&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Klappentext 1\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk 2\p cgwrk 20201028 DE-101 https://d-nb.info/provenance/plan#cgwrk
spellingShingle	Reinhart, Carmen M. 1955- Rogoff, Kenneth S. 1953- This time is different eight centuries of financial folly Financial crises / Case studies Fiscal policy / Case studies Business cycles / Case studies Business cycles Case studies Financial crises Case studies Fiscal policy Case studies Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 gnd Konjunkturabschwung (DE-588)4200325-8 gnd Schuldenkrise (DE-588)4200280-1 gnd Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 gnd Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Abwertung (DE-588)4141203-5 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Wirtschaftspsychologie (DE-588)4066506-9 gnd Anlageverhalten (DE-588)4214003-1 gnd Finanzpolitik (DE-588)4127795-8 gnd
subject_GND	(DE-588)4026887-1 (DE-588)4200325-8 (DE-588)4200280-1 (DE-588)4020517-4 (DE-588)4032134-4 (DE-588)4141203-5 (DE-588)7635855-0 (DE-588)4066506-9 (DE-588)4214003-1 (DE-588)4127795-8 (DE-588)4078704-7 (DE-588)4522595-3
title	This time is different eight centuries of financial folly
title_auth	This time is different eight centuries of financial folly
title_exact_search	This time is different eight centuries of financial folly
title_full	This time is different eight centuries of financial folly Carmen M. Reinhart ; Kenneth S. Rogoff
title_fullStr	This time is different eight centuries of financial folly Carmen M. Reinhart ; Kenneth S. Rogoff
title_full_unstemmed	This time is different eight centuries of financial folly Carmen M. Reinhart ; Kenneth S. Rogoff
title_short	This time is different
title_sort	this time is different eight centuries of financial folly
title_sub	eight centuries of financial folly
topic	Financial crises / Case studies Fiscal policy / Case studies Business cycles / Case studies Business cycles Case studies Financial crises Case studies Fiscal policy Case studies Inflation (DE-588)4026887-1 gnd Konjunkturabschwung (DE-588)4200325-8 gnd Schuldenkrise (DE-588)4200280-1 gnd Geschichte (DE-588)4020517-4 gnd Konjunkturzyklus (DE-588)4032134-4 gnd Abwertung (DE-588)4141203-5 gnd Finanzkrise (DE-588)7635855-0 gnd Wirtschaftspsychologie (DE-588)4066506-9 gnd Anlageverhalten (DE-588)4214003-1 gnd Finanzpolitik (DE-588)4127795-8 gnd
topic_facet	Financial crises / Case studies Fiscal policy / Case studies Business cycles / Case studies Business cycles Case studies Financial crises Case studies Fiscal policy Case studies Inflation Konjunkturabschwung Schuldenkrise Geschichte Konjunkturzyklus Abwertung Finanzkrise Wirtschaftspsychologie Anlageverhalten Finanzpolitik USA Fallstudiensammlung
url	http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018631106&sequence=000003&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=018631106&sequence=000004&line_number=0002&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA
work_keys_str_mv	AT reinhartcarmenm thistimeisdifferenteightcenturiesoffinancialfolly AT rogoffkenneths thistimeisdifferenteightcenturiesoffinancialfolly

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