Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany:
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
München
Oldenbourg-Industrieverl.
2009
|
| Series: | Schriften des Energiewirtschaftlichen Instituts
Bd. 64 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltstext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Literaturverz. S. 150 - 154 |
| Physical Description: | XV, 164 S. graph. Darst. 21 cm |
| ISBN: | 9783835631847 |
Staff View
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany |c Michael Bartels |
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Titel: Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany
Autor: Bartels, Michael
Jahr: 2009
Contents
List of Tables.iii
List of Figures.vi
List of Indices.viii
List of Parameters.xi
List of Variables.xiii
Abbreviations.xv
1 Summary.1
1.1 Status Quo.1
1.2 Static Analysis.1
1.3 Dynamic Analysis.5
1.4 Implications and Recommendations for Further Research.7
2 Introduction.9
2.1 Background.9
2.2 Objective and Scope of Work.10
3 District Heat Expansion.12
3.1 Current Status of District Heat.12
3.2 Key Drivers for Future Development of District Heat Consumption.17
3.3 Technical Expansion Potential for District Heat.21
3.4 Comparison of Recent Projections.23
4 Main Assumptions.27
4.1 Demand Side Data.27
4.2 Supply Side Data.28
4.3 Assumptions on Interregional Electricity Exchange.38
4.4 Policy Assumptions.39
5 Static Analysis.41
5.1 Short Run Perspective.47
.57
5.2 Long Run Perspective.
.64
5.3 Very Long Run Perspective.
5.4 Conclusions from Static Analysis.
Dynamic Analysis.
6.1 Shortfalls of Static Analysis and Relevant Dynamic Aspects.
6.2 DIME - A simulation tool for European electricity markets.
75
6.2.1 Non-technical Description.
83
6.2.2 Technical Description.
6.3 Projection of Future District Heat Expansion.
6.3.1 Long Run Perspective (Scenario LR).
6.3.2 Very Long Run Perspective (Scenario VLR).'"
6.3.3 Sensitivity of Results.
6.3.4 Methodological Limitations and Numerical Issues.lz'
6.4 Barriers to the Development of District Heat Supply.'•'
6.5 Conclusions from Dynamic Analysis.'"
7 Implications and Recommendations for Further Research.*35
7.1 Why do Results Diverge?.135
7.2 Implications for Utilities.'^2
7.3 Implications for Policy Makers.'**
7.4 Recommendations for Further Research.'47
References.150
Appendix.„.156
List of Tables
Table 3-1: Typology of Settlement Areas.21
Table 3-2: Technical District Heat Expansion Potential, in TWh,h/a Final Energy
Demand.22
Table 3-3: Characterisation of Selected Studies on DH Expansion and Their Results.25
Table 4-1: Net Electricity Consumption excluding Own Consumption
Consumption of Pumped-Storage Plants, in TWhe!.27
Table 4-2: Overall Heat Consumption for Germany including Distribution Losses, in
TWh,h.28
Table 4-3: Net Electricity Generation from Exogenous Sources, in TWhei.29
Table 4-4: Definition of Heat Supply Cases in Germany.30
Table 4-5: Heat Generation from Exogenous Sources by Heat Supply Case, in TWhu, .30
Table 4-6: Assumptions on Avoided Network Costs of Decentralised Generation.31
Table 4-7: Technology Assumptions for Condensation Power Plants.32
Table 4-8: Assumptions on Life Time and Depreciation Period in Years.33
Table 4-9: Fuel Price Assumptions for Bulk Power Stations, in €/MWhlh, Reference
Case.33
Table 4-10: Investment Cost and Network Losses by Settlement Type, District Heat.34
Table 4-11: Investment Cost and Density of Gas Consumption by Settlement Type,
Gas Network.35
Table 4-12: Relevant Cost Components of Space Heating Systems in New Buildings,
Annual Costs in €.36
Table 4-13: Relevant Cost Components of Space Heating Systems in Modernised
Buildings, Complete Modernisation, Annual Costs in €.37
Table 4-14: Derivation of Emission Cap for Dynamic Analysis, in million tons CO2.39
Table 4-15: Development of Installed Nuclear Generation Capacity in Germany, in
GWd.40
Table 5-1: Definition of cases for evaluation of displacement effects.44
Table 5-2: Summary of Assumptions for Static Analysis.45
Table 5-3: Changes in Fossil Fuel Consumption and Carbon Emissions by Combined
Generation.46
Table 5-4: Derivation of Short Run Differential Costs, Generation and Supply
Subsystem.48
able 5-5: Derivation of Short Run Differential Costs in e/MWhlh) Distribution ^
Network Subsystem.
"able 5-6: Derivation of Short Run Differential Costs, Space Heating Subsystem.53
rable 5-7: Derivation of Long Run Differential Costs, Generation and Supply ^
Subsystem.
rable 5-8: Derivation of Long Run Differential Costs, Space Heating Subsystem.60
Table 5-9: Derivation of Very Long Run Differential Costs in €/MWhlh, Distribution ^
Network Subsystem.
Table 5-10- Derivation of Very Long Run Differential Costs, Space Heating
.DO
Subsystem.
Table 6-1: Advantages of Dynamic Analysis over Static Analysis and Remaining
Simplifications.
77
Table 6-2: Treatment of generation technologies.
77
Table 6-3: Properties of generation technologies.
Table 6-4: Annual Electricity Balance, Scenario LR, in TWhe,.10
104
Table 6-5: Price Indicators, Scenario LR.
Table 6-6: Net CHP Electricity Generation, Scenario LR, in TWhei.105
Table 6-7: Development of annual DH Supply, Scenario LR, in TWhlh/a.106
Table 6-8: Cost Efficiently Developed Final DH Consumption in 2030, Scenario LR,
inTWhlh/a.107
Table 6-9: Annual Electricity Balance, Scenario VLR, in TWh.,.*10
Table 6-10: Price Indicators, Scenario VLR.'' *
Table 6-11: Net CHP Electricity Generation, Scenario VLR, in TWhei.'! l
Table 6-12: Development of annual DH Supply, Scenario VLR, in TWhlh/a.*12
Table 6-13: Cost Efficiently Developed Final DH Consumption in 2030, Scenario
VLR, in TWIWa.114
Table 6-14: Definition of Gas Price Sensitivities for Bulk Power Stations, in €/MWhlh .116
Table 6-15: Definition of Emission Caps for Climate Policy Sensitivities, in million
tonsCOi.116
Table 6-16: Large Technical District Heat Expansion Potential, in TWlWa Final
Energy Demand.117
Table 6-17: Definition of Reduced Investment Cost for Network Construction (CC70). 118
Table 6-18: Robustness of Scenario LR Results, Electricity Balance in 2030, in
TWhel/a.120
Table 6-19: Robustness of Scenario LR Results, CHP Electricity Generation and DH
Network Expansion in 2030.121
Table 6-20: Robustness of Scenario VLR Results, Electricity Balance in 2030, in
TWhel/a.123
Table 6-21: Robustness of Scenario VLR Results, CHP Electricity Generation and DH
Network Expansion in 2030.125
Table 7-1: Selected CHP Technologies and their Unit Size, in MWe,.136
Table 7-2: Price Mark Up for District Heat, in €/MWhlh.140
Table A-l: Technology Assumptions for CHP Plants built 2010, District Heat.157
Table A-2: Technology Assumptions for CHP Plants built 2020, District Heat.158
Table A-3: Technology Assumptions for CHP Plants built 2010, Industrial CHP.159
Table A-4: Technology Assumptions for CHP Plants built 2020, Industrial CHP.160
Table A-5: Technology Assumptions for Internal Combustion Engines, District Heat
and Industrial CHP.161
Table A-6: Technology Assumptions for Heating Plants.161
Table A-7: Fuel Price Assumptions for CHP Plants, in €/MWh, Reference Case.162
Table A-8: Gas Price Assumptions for CHP Plants in €/MWh, GP50 Case.162
Table A-9: Gas Price Assumptions for CHP Plants in €/MWh, GP150 Case.163
Table A-10: Initial Transmission Capacities Summer 2007, in GWC|.163
Table A-l 1: Initial Transmission Capacities Winter 2007/2008, in GWe,.164
Table A-12: Average Transport Distances, in km.164
1st of Figures
gure 1-1: Ranges of Long Run Differential Costs for the Case of Network Extension ^
and Modernised Buildings*, Overall System.
igure 1-2: Ranges of Very Long Run Differential Costs for the Case of Network ^
Extension and New Buildings, Overall System.
•igure 1-3: Additional Network Supply in 2030 Due to Cost Efficient Network ^
Expansion.
Figure 3-1- Breakdown of Final District Heat Consumption in 2005, Final Energy.
15
Figure 3-2: Annual Heat Generation in 2005.
Figure 3-3: Annual CHP Electricity Generation in 2005.
¦41
Figure 5-1: System Comparison Approach.
Figure 5-2: Short Run Differential Costs, Generation and Supply Subsystem.4
Figure 5-3: Short Run Differential Costs, Distribution Network Subsystem.
54
Figure 5-4: Short Run Differential Costs, Space Heating Subsystem.
Figure 5-5: Ranges of Short Run Differential Costs for the Case of Network Extension
and Modernised Buildings*, Overall System.
Figure 5-6: Sensitivity of Short Run Results: Case I, Network Extension in st5, MFH
Modernisation.
Figure 5-7: Long Run Differential Costs, Generation and Supply Subsystem.59
Figure 5-8: Long Run Differential Costs, Space Heating Subsystem.
Figure 5-9: Ranges of Long Run Differential Costs foT the Case of Network Extension
and Modernised Buildings*, Overall System.
Figure 5-10: Sensitivity of Long Run Results: Case I, Network Extension in st5, MFH
Modernisation.
Figure 5-11: Very Long Run Differential Costs, Distribution Network Subsystem.65
Figure 5-12: Very Long Run Differential Costs, Space Heating Subsystem.67
Figure 5-13: Ranges of Very Long Run Differential Costs for the Case of Network
Extension and New Buildings, Overall System.68
Figure 5-14: Sensitivity of Very Long Run Results: Case I, Network Extension in st5,
New MFH.69
Figure 6-1: Input-Output Structure of DIME.76
Figure 6-2: Segmentation of Overall Heat Demand into Supply Cases.80
VI1
Figure 6-3: Assignment of Heat Demand Segments to Generation Technologies.81
Figure 6-4: Cost Efficiently Developed DH Consumption as Share of Technical
Potential in 2030, Scenario LR, in %.108
Figure 6-5: Cost Efficiently Developed DH Consumption as Share of Technical
Potential in 2030, Scenario VLR, in %.114
Figure 6-6: Cost Efficiently Developed DH Consumption as Share of Technical
Potential in 2030, Sensitivity DC4 to Scenario VLR, in %.126
Figure 7-1: Comparison of Selected Technology Data, Generation and Supply
Subsystem.136
Figure 7-2: Comparison of Annualised Construction Costs for District Heat Networks,
Distribution Network Subsystem.138
Figure 7-3: Impact of Methodological and Numerical Differences on Outcomes for
Network Expansion, Final DH Consumption.141
Figure 7-4: Ranges of Tolerable Network Construction Costs, Annualised Figures.143 |
| any_adam_object | 1 |
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| series | Schriften des Energiewirtschaftlichen Instituts |
| series2 | Schriften des Energiewirtschaftlichen Instituts |
| spelling | Bartels, Michael Verfasser aut Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany Michael Bartels München Oldenbourg-Industrieverl. 2009 XV, 164 S. graph. Darst. 21 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Schriften des Energiewirtschaftlichen Instituts Bd. 64 Literaturverz. S. 150 - 154 Blockheizkraftwerk stw Deutschland stw Fernwärme stw Infrastrukturinvestition stw Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse stw Netzinfrastruktur stw Simulation stw Cogeneration of electric power and heat Germany Cost effectiveness Heating from central stations Germany Cost effectiveness Effizienz (DE-588)4013585-8 gnd rswk-swf Fernwärmenetz (DE-588)4121258-7 gnd rswk-swf Erweiterung (DE-588)4128080-5 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland - Fernwärmenetz - Erweiterung - Effizienz Deutschland Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Fernwärmenetz (DE-588)4121258-7 s Erweiterung (DE-588)4128080-5 s Effizienz (DE-588)4013585-8 s DE-604 Schriften des Energiewirtschaftlichen Instituts Bd. 64 (DE-604)BV002304194 64 text/html http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=3264800&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm Inhaltstext HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017762105&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Bartels, Michael Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany Schriften des Energiewirtschaftlichen Instituts Blockheizkraftwerk stw Deutschland stw Fernwärme stw Infrastrukturinvestition stw Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse stw Netzinfrastruktur stw Simulation stw Cogeneration of electric power and heat Germany Cost effectiveness Heating from central stations Germany Cost effectiveness Effizienz (DE-588)4013585-8 gnd Fernwärmenetz (DE-588)4121258-7 gnd Erweiterung (DE-588)4128080-5 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4013585-8 (DE-588)4121258-7 (DE-588)4128080-5 (DE-588)4011882-4 |
| title | Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany |
| title_auth | Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany |
| title_exact_search | Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany |
| title_full | Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany Michael Bartels |
| title_fullStr | Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany Michael Bartels |
| title_full_unstemmed | Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany Michael Bartels |
| title_short | Cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in Germany |
| title_sort | cost efficient expansion of district heat networks in germany |
| topic | Blockheizkraftwerk stw Deutschland stw Fernwärme stw Infrastrukturinvestition stw Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse stw Netzinfrastruktur stw Simulation stw Cogeneration of electric power and heat Germany Cost effectiveness Heating from central stations Germany Cost effectiveness Effizienz (DE-588)4013585-8 gnd Fernwärmenetz (DE-588)4121258-7 gnd Erweiterung (DE-588)4128080-5 gnd |
| topic_facet | Blockheizkraftwerk Deutschland Fernwärme Infrastrukturinvestition Kosten-Wirksamkeits-Analyse Netzinfrastruktur Simulation Cogeneration of electric power and heat Germany Cost effectiveness Heating from central stations Germany Cost effectiveness Effizienz Fernwärmenetz Erweiterung Deutschland - Fernwärmenetz - Erweiterung - Effizienz |
| url | http://deposit.dnb.de/cgi-bin/dokserv?id=3264800&prov=M&dok_var=1&dok_ext=htm http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017762105&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002304194 |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT bartelsmichael costefficientexpansionofdistrictheatnetworksingermany |