The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002: are there lessons for the United States?
The future of the U.S. current account -- and thus of the U.S. dollar -- depend on whether foreign investors will continue to add U.S. assets to their investment portfolios. However, even under optimistic scenarios, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to go through a significant reversal at s...
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| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Cambridge, Mass.
National Bureau of Economic Research
2005
|
| Series: | National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series
11669 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Volltext |
| Summary: | The future of the U.S. current account -- and thus of the U.S. dollar -- depend on whether foreign investors will continue to add U.S. assets to their investment portfolios. However, even under optimistic scenarios, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to go through a significant reversal at some point in time. This adjustment may be as large of 4% to 5% of GDP. In order to have an idea of the possible consequences of this type of adjustment, I have analyzed the international evidence on current account reversals using both non-parametric techniques as well as panel regressions. The results from this empirical investigation indicate that major current account reversals have tended to result in large declines in GDP growth. I also analyze the large U.S. current account adjustment of 1987-1991. |
| Physical Description: | 67 S. graph. Darst. |
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| geographic_facet | USA United States Economic conditions 2001-2009 United States Economic conditions 20th century |
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:41:50Z |
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| spelling | Edwards, Sebastian 1953- Verfasser (DE-588)128726997 aut The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002 are there lessons for the United States? Sebastian Edwards Cambridge, Mass. National Bureau of Economic Research 2005 67 S. graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11669 The future of the U.S. current account -- and thus of the U.S. dollar -- depend on whether foreign investors will continue to add U.S. assets to their investment portfolios. However, even under optimistic scenarios, the U.S. current account deficit is likely to go through a significant reversal at some point in time. This adjustment may be as large of 4% to 5% of GDP. In order to have an idea of the possible consequences of this type of adjustment, I have analyzed the international evidence on current account reversals using both non-parametric techniques as well as panel regressions. The results from this empirical investigation indicate that major current account reversals have tended to result in large declines in GDP growth. I also analyze the large U.S. current account adjustment of 1987-1991. Geschichte 1900-2000 Wirtschaft Investments, Foreign United States USA United States Economic conditions 2001-2009 United States Economic conditions 20th century Erscheint auch als Internetausgabe National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series 11669 (DE-604)BV002801238 11669 http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11669.pdf kostenfrei Volltext |
| spellingShingle | Edwards, Sebastian 1953- The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002 are there lessons for the United States? National Bureau of Economic Research <Cambridge, Mass.>: NBER working paper series Wirtschaft Investments, Foreign United States |
| title | The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002 are there lessons for the United States? |
| title_auth | The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002 are there lessons for the United States? |
| title_exact_search | The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002 are there lessons for the United States? |
| title_full | The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002 are there lessons for the United States? Sebastian Edwards |
| title_fullStr | The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002 are there lessons for the United States? Sebastian Edwards |
| title_full_unstemmed | The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002 are there lessons for the United States? Sebastian Edwards |
| title_short | The end of large current account deficits, 1970 - 2002 |
| title_sort | the end of large current account deficits 1970 2002 are there lessons for the united states |
| title_sub | are there lessons for the United States? |
| topic | Wirtschaft Investments, Foreign United States |
| topic_facet | Wirtschaft Investments, Foreign United States USA United States Economic conditions 2001-2009 United States Economic conditions 20th century |
| url | http://papers.nber.org/papers/w11669.pdf |
| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002801238 |
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