Real options in theory and practice:
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Oxford [u.a.]
Oxford Univ. Pr.
2009
|
| Series: | Financial management association survey and synthesis series
|
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Item Description: | Literaturverz. S. 406 - 408 |
| Physical Description: | XVII, 414 S. graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) |
| ISBN: | 9780195380637 |
Staff View
MARC
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| 100 | 1 | |a Guthrie, Graeme A. |d 1967- |e Verfasser |0 (DE-588)17139870X |4 aut | |
| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a Real options in theory and practice |c Graeme Guthrie |
| 264 | 1 | |a Oxford [u.a.] |b Oxford Univ. Pr. |c 2009 | |
| 300 | |a XVII, 414 S. |b graph. Darst. |e 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) | ||
| 336 | |b txt |2 rdacontent | ||
| 337 | |b n |2 rdamedia | ||
| 338 | |b nc |2 rdacarrier | ||
| 490 | 0 | |a Financial management association survey and synthesis series | |
| 500 | |a Literaturverz. S. 406 - 408 | ||
| 650 | 4 | |a Real options (Finance) | |
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Contents
1
Introduction
3
1.1
The Aim of Real Options Analysis
3
1.2
Placing Real Options Analysis in Context
4
1.2.1
Static DCF Analysis
4
1.2.2
Decision Tree Analysis
5
1.2.3
Real Options Analysis
6
1.3
Outline of the Book
6
1.4
Spreadsheets
8
I Foundations
2
The Modeling Framework
13
2.1
Choosing an Objective Function
13
2.1.1
Shareholder Unanimity
14
2.1.2
A Special Case: The Net Present Value Rule
16
2.1.3
Calculating the Objective Function
17
2.2
Modeling Risk and Time
18
2.3
Static versus Dynamic Decision Making
20
2.4
Problems
25
3
Valuing Single-period Cash Flows
27
3.1
Arbitrage-free Asset Prices
27
3.2
Valuation when the State Variable is the Price of a Traded Asset
30
3.3
Valuation Using Forward and Futures Contracts
32
x¡¡
Contents
3.4
Valuation when the State Variable is not Necessarily the Price of a
Traded Asset
33
3.4.1
Capital Asset Pricing Model
34
3.4.2
Risk-neutral Probabilities Implied by the CAPM
35
3.5
Summarizing the Valuation Approach
39
3.6
Problems
39
3.A Appendix
40
3.A.1 The Fundamental Asset Pricing Formula
40
3.A.2 Properties of the Risk-neutral Probabilities
41
3.A.3 The Certainty-equivalent Form of the CAPM
42
3.A.4 The RADR Form of the CAPM
43
4
Valuing Multi-period Cash Flows
45
4.1
Valuing Distant Cash Flows Using Backward Induction
48
4.2
Two Situations where Valuation can be Streamlined
53
4.2.1
A One-shot Valuation Approach
53
4.2.2
Valuing Cash Flows that are Proportional to the State Variable
56
4.3
Valuing Multi-period Cash Flows as Portfolios
59
4.3.1
The Portfolio Approach
59
4.3.2
Relationship with Static DCF Analysis
60
4.3.3
Valuing Annuities
63
4.4
Valuing Multi-period Cash Flows Using Backward Induction
65
4.5
Summarizing the Valuation Approach
67
4.6
Problems
67
4.A Appendix: The RADR Form of the CAPM
70
4.B Appendix: Valuation with Personal Taxes
71
4.B.1 Risk-neutral Pricing Formula
72
4.B.2 Valuation when the State Variable is the Price of a Traded
Asset
74
4.B.3 Valuation Using the CAPM
74
5
Combining Valuation and Decision Making
77
5.1
A Simple Example of a Real Option
78
5.1.1
Invest Now or Not at All
78
5.1.2
Invest Now or Wait and See
79
5.2
Decision Trees
83
5.3
Fundamental Valuation Equation
86
5.4
Filling in the Trees Using Dynamic Programming
88
5.5
Summarizing our Approach to Analyzing Real Options
92
5.6
Problems
92
Component Real Options
6
Options that do not Affect the State of a Project
97
6.1
Examples of Options that do not Affect the State of a Project
99
6.2
Solving the Production-suspension Problem
100
Contents
xi¡¡
6.2.1
Setting Up the
Production-suspension
Problem 100
6.2.2
Valuation without the
Suspension Option 100
6.2.3
Valuation with the Suspension Option
102
6.2.4
A Numerical Example
104
6.2.5
Can we Use Static DCF Analysis to Examine this Problem?
105
6.3
Solving Problems Involving Options that do not Affect the State of a
Project
110
6.4
Problems
111
7
Simple Timing Options
114
7.1
Examples of Simple Timing Options
115
7.1.1
The Optimal Time to Invest
115
7.1.2
The Optimal Time to Abandon
117
7.1.3
The Optimal Time to Act when Success is Uncertain
118
7.1.4
The General Simple Timing Option Problem
118
7.2
Solving the Investment Timing Problem
119
7.2.1
Setting Up the Investment Timing Problem
119
7.2.2
Analyzing the Investment Timing Problem
119
7.2.3
A Numerical Example
122
7.2.4
Asymmetric Risk and the Value of Waiting
125
7.2.5
Extension: Construction Takes Multiple Periods
127
7.3
Solving the Abandonment Timing Problem
129
7.3.1
Setting Up the Abandonment Timing Problem
129
7.3.2
Valuing the Project when Production Cannot be Abandoned
129
7.3.3
Valuing the Project when Production Can be Abandoned
130
7.3.4
A Numerical Example
132
7.3.5
Extension: Abandonment Takes Multiple Periods
134
7.4
Solving the R&D Timing Problem
135
7.4.1
Setting Up the R&D Timing Problem
135
7.4.2
Analyzing the R&D Timing Problem
136
7.4.3
A Numerical Example
139
7.5
Solving Problems Involving Simple Timing Options
141
7.6
Problems
143
8
Compound Timing Options
147
8.1
Examples of Compound Timing Options
149
8.1.1
Sequential Investment
149
8.1.2
Resource Extraction
150
8.1.3
Sequential Actions when Success is Uncertain
150
8.1.4
The General Compound Timing Option Problem
151
8.2
Solving the Sequential Investment Problem
152
8.2.1
Setting Up the Sequential Investment Problem
152
8.2.2
Analyzing the Sequential Investment Problem
152
8.2.3
A Numerical Example
155
8.2.4
Determinants of Option Value: Capital Expenditure Profile
158
xiv
Contents
8.3
Solving the Resource Extraction Problem
159
8.3.1
Setting Up the Resource Extraction Problem
159
8.3.2
Analyzing the Resource Extraction Problem
159
8.3.3
A Numerical Example
162
8.3.4
Valuing Copper Reserves
164
8.4
Solving the Multi-stage R&D Timing Problem
168
8.4.1
Setting Up the R&D Timing Problem
168
8.4.2
Analyzing the R&D Timing Problem
168
8.4.3
A Numerical Example
171
8.5
Solving Problems Involving Compound Timing Options
171
8.6
Problems
174
9 Über-compound
Timing Options
180
9.1
Examples of
Über-compound
Timing Options
182
9.1.1
Extending the Simple Timing Options of Chapter
7 182
9.1.2
Extending the Compound Timing Options of Chapter
8 183
9.1.3
The General
Über-compound
Timing Option Problem
184
9.2
Solving the Land-development Problem
184
9.2.1
Setting Up the Land-development Problem
184
9.2.2
Valuing the Land when the Decision Cannot be Delayed
184
9.2.3
Valuing the Land when the Decision Can be Delayed
185
9.2.4
A Numerical Example
187
9.3
Solving the Time-to-build Problem
193
9.3.1
Setting Up the Time-to-build Problem
193
9.3.2
Analyzing the Time-to-build Problem
194
9.3.3
A Numerical Example
196
9.4
Solving Problems Involving
Über-compound
Timing Options
198
9.5
Problems
201
10
Switching Options
204
10.1
Examples of Switching Options
207
10.1.1
The Option to Switch between Two States
207
10.1.2
The Option to Switch between Multiple States
207
10.1.3
The General Switching Option Problem
209
10.2
Solving the Production-suspension Problem
209
10.2.1
Setting Up the Production-suspension Problem
209
10.2.2
Analyzing the Production-suspension Problem
210
10.2.3
A Numerical Example
212
10.2.4
The Trade-off between Wages and Severance Pay
217
10.3
Solving the Machinery-replacement Problem
218
10.3.1
Setting Up the Machinery-replacement Problem
219
10.3.2
Static DCF Analysis
219
10.3.3
Real Options Analysis
221
10.3.4
A Numerical Example
223
Contents xv
10.4
Solving
Problems
Involving Switching
Options
226
10.5
Problems
227
11
Learning Options
232
11.1
Examples of Learning Options
234
11.2
Modeling Information Gathering
235
11.2.1
Generalizing our Concept of the State of the Project
235
11.2.2
Using
Bayes
Theorem
237
11.3
Staging the Roll-out of a New Venture
242
11.3.1
Setting Up the Roll-out Problem
242
11.3.2
Analyzing the Roll-out Problem
242
11.3.3
A Numerical Example
246
11.4
Solving the Oil Exploration Problem
249
11.4.1
Setting Up the Oil Exploration Problem
249
11.4.2
Analyzing the Oil Exploration Problem
249
11.4.3
A Numerical Example
253
11.5
Solving Problems Involving Learning Options
255
11.6
Problems
258
III Calibrating the Model
12
Calibration Using Spot and Futures Price Data
263
12.1
Calibrating a Tree of Prices Using Historical Data
265
12.1.1
A Price that Follows a Random Walk
266
12.1.2
A Price that is Mean Reverting
271
12.2
Calibrating Risk-neutral Probabilities
280
12.2.1
Using the CAPM
281
12.2.2
Matching the Relationship between Spot and
Futures Prices
284
12.2.3
Matching the Current Term Structure of Futures
Prices
288
12.3
Deciding which Approach to Use
291
12.4
Problems
292
12.A Appendix
295
12.A.1 Mean and Variance of Changes in the Log Price
295
12.A.2 Truncating the Binomial Tree
296
12.A.3 Estimating Beta when the Spot Price is Mean Reverting
297
1
2.A.4 Matching the Current Term Structure of Futures Prices
298
13
Calibration Using Option Price Data
300
13.1
Implied Volatility
303
13.2
Implied Binomial Trees: European Options
309
13.2.1
Estimating the Risk-neutral Probability of Reaching Each
Terminal Node
309
13.2.2
Filling in the Remainder of the Futures Price Tree
312
xv¡
Contents
13.3
Implied Binomial Trees:
American
Options
315
13.4
From a Futures-price Tree to a State-variable Tree
317
13.5
Problems
319
13-А
Appendix
320
13.A.1 Risk-neutral Probabilities when the State Variable is
a Futures Price
320
13.A.2 Rubinstein s Implied Binomial Tree
321
13.A.3 Properties of the State-variable Tree
322
14
Calibrating Trees of Alternative State Variables
324
14.1
Non-price State Variables
325
14.1.1
Calibrating the Tree for the State Variable
327
14.1.2
Calibrating Risk-neutral Probabilities
329
14.2
Market Values as State Variables
333
14.2.1
Using Comparison Firms
334
14.2.2
Enterprise Value versus Equity Value
336
14.2.3
Estimating Volatility
337
14.2.4
Estimating Risk-neutral Probabilities
341
14.3
The Choice of State Variable
342
14.4
Problems
343
14.A Appendix: Calculating Enterprise Returns
343
IV Putting the Pieces Together
15
Forestry Management and Valuation
347
15.1
Setting Up the Model
348
15.2
The Solution Procedure
350
15.3
Data and Calibration
352
15.4
Results
355
15.5
Problems
360
16
Developing a Gas Field
362
16.1
Setting Up the Model
364
16.2
The Solution Procedure
365
16.3
Data and Calibration
368
16.4
Results
373
16.5
Problems
378
16.A Appendix: The Distribution of the Development Time
379
17
Mothballing an
Ethanol
Plant
381
17.1
Setting Up the Model
382
17.2
The Solution Procedure
383
17.3
Data and Calibration
387
17.4
Results 3g4
17.5
Problems
Здд
Contents
18
Where to from Here?
401
18.1
Improved Numerical Algorithms
401
18.2
Greater Econometric Sophistication
402
18.3
Multiple State Variables
403
Bibliography
406
Index
409
|
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| dewey-sort | 3332.63 |
| dewey-tens | 330 - Economics |
| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
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| id | DE-604.BV035572097 |
| illustrated | Illustrated |
| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:40:43Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9780195380637 |
| language | English |
| lccn | 2008043028 |
| oai_aleph_id | oai:aleph.bib-bvb.de:BVB01-017627662 |
| oclc_num | 260231176 |
| open_access_boolean | |
| owner | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-945 |
| owner_facet | DE-355 DE-BY-UBR DE-945 |
| physical | XVII, 414 S. graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) |
| publishDate | 2009 |
| publishDateSearch | 2009 |
| publishDateSort | 2009 |
| publisher | Oxford Univ. Pr. |
| record_format | marc |
| series2 | Financial management association survey and synthesis series |
| spelling | Guthrie, Graeme A. 1967- Verfasser (DE-588)17139870X aut Real options in theory and practice Graeme Guthrie Oxford [u.a.] Oxford Univ. Pr. 2009 XVII, 414 S. graph. Darst. 1 CD-ROM (12 cm) txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Financial management association survey and synthesis series Literaturverz. S. 406 - 408 Real options (Finance) Optionspreistheorie (DE-588)4135346-8 gnd rswk-swf Zinsstruktur (DE-588)4067855-6 gnd rswk-swf Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 gnd rswk-swf Optionspreistheorie (DE-588)4135346-8 s Zinsstruktur (DE-588)4067855-6 s Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 s b DE-604 Digitalisierung UB Regensburg application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017627662&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Guthrie, Graeme A. 1967- Real options in theory and practice Real options (Finance) Optionspreistheorie (DE-588)4135346-8 gnd Zinsstruktur (DE-588)4067855-6 gnd Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4135346-8 (DE-588)4067855-6 (DE-588)4057633-4 |
| title | Real options in theory and practice |
| title_auth | Real options in theory and practice |
| title_exact_search | Real options in theory and practice |
| title_full | Real options in theory and practice Graeme Guthrie |
| title_fullStr | Real options in theory and practice Graeme Guthrie |
| title_full_unstemmed | Real options in theory and practice Graeme Guthrie |
| title_short | Real options in theory and practice |
| title_sort | real options in theory and practice |
| topic | Real options (Finance) Optionspreistheorie (DE-588)4135346-8 gnd Zinsstruktur (DE-588)4067855-6 gnd Stochastisches Modell (DE-588)4057633-4 gnd |
| topic_facet | Real options (Finance) Optionspreistheorie Zinsstruktur Stochastisches Modell |
| url | http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017627662&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA |
| work_keys_str_mv | AT guthriegraemea realoptionsintheoryandpractice |