German pension reform: on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system
Saved in:
| Main Author: | |
|---|---|
| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
Frankfurt am Main [u.a.]
Lang
2009
|
| Series: | Sozialökonomische Schriften
34 |
| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Volltext Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | XIII, 196 Seiten graph. Darst. |
| ISBN: | 9783631588512 |
| DOI: | 10.3726/b13605 |
Staff View
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Record in the Search Index
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| adam_text | Titel: German pension reform
Autor: Wilke, Christina B.
Jahr: 2009
Contents
1. Introduction 1
2. Demographic Challenges and Labor Market Potentials 9
2.1. Introduction............................ 9
2.2. Demographic Projections..................... 10
2.2.1. Methodology and Scenarios............... 11
2.2.2. Simulation Results.................... 13
2.3. Projections on Future Labor Supply............... 16
2.3.1. Modeling Labor Supply ................. 17
2.3.2. Scenarios ......................... 18
2.3.3. Simulation Results.................... 21
2.3.4. Sensitivity Analysis.................... 24
2.4. Projections on Future Employment............... 29
2.4.1. Introducing Labor Demand into the Model....... 30
2.4.2. Simulation Results.................... 31
2.5. Conclusion............................. 36
3. A Quarter Century of Reforms 39
3.1. Introduction............................ 39
3.2. Basic Principles of the German Pension System........ 40
3.2.1. Coverage and Contributions............... 42
3.2.2. Pension Benefits and Pension Levels .......... 42
3.3. The German Pension Reform Process.............. 48
3.3.1. The 1992 and 1999 Reforms: Containing Early Retire-
ment ............................ 49
3.3.2. The 2001 Reform: Shifting Towards a Multi-Pillar Sys-
tem............................. 50
3.3.3. The 2004 Reform: Introducing the Sustainability Factor 54
Contents
3.3.4. The 2007 Reform: Raising the Statutory Retirement
Age to 67......................... 56
3.4. A Simulation Model of the German Pension System......57
3.4.1. Modeling the German PAYG System..........59
3.4.2. Modeling the State Subsidized Private Riester Pension 66
3.5. Projections on the development of the German PAYG System 69
3.5.1. Future Contribution Rates and Pension Levels..... 70
3.5.2. Stepwise Reform Effects................. 72
3.5.3. Demographic, Labor Market and Economic Growth Ef-
fects ............................ 74
3.6. Projections on the Future Role of Supplementary Pensions . . 78
3.6.1. Can the Riester Pensions Fill the Public Pension Gap? 79
3.6.2. Future Share of Public and Private Pension Income . . 79
3.6.3. Rate of Return Risk ................... 81
3.6.4. On the Voluntary Nature of Riester Pensions...... 82
3.7. Conclusion............................. 86
4. An NDC System for Germany - A Reform Alternative? 88
4.1. Introduction............................ 88
4.2. Notional Defined Contribution Systems.............90
4.2.1. Basic Concepts...................... 91
4.2.2. Mathematical Description................92
4.2.3. System Design ...................... 94
4.2.4. System Behavior..................... 96
4.3. Parallels to the German Public Pension System........99
4.3.1. The German Point System................99
4.3.2. Actuarial Adjustments to Retirement Age.......100
4.3.3. The Sustainability Factor ................100
4.4. Simulating a Hypothetical Introduction of an NDC System for
Germany............... . . 101
4.4.1. Modeling an NDC system................101
4.4.2. Scenarios and Underlying Assumptions.........103
4.4.3. Simulation Results....................106
4.4.4. Sensitivity Analysis....................112
4.5. Conclusion.......... 218
Contents
5. Internal Rates of Return of the German PAYG System 120
5.1. Introduction............................ 120
5.2. How to Measure Rates of Return................ 122
5.2.1. The Internal Rate of Return............... 123
5.2.2. The Deterministic Approach............... 125
5.2.3. The Stochastic Approach................. 129
5.3. Deterministic Projections on Future Rates of Return..... 133
5.3.1. Data and Scenario Assumptions............. 134
5.3.2. Simulation Results.................... 136
5.3.3. Sensitivity Analysis.................... 140
5.4. Stochastic Projections on Future Rates of Return....... 143
5.4.1. Probability Data..................... 143
5.4.2. A Stepwise Introduction of Stochastic Elements .... 146
5.4.3. Simulation Results.................... 152
5.5. Conclusion............................. 156
6. Summary and Concluding Remarks 159
A. Variations of the Denmark Scenario 163
B. The German Public Pension System from Bismarck until Today 165
C. Pension Level Concepts in the German PAYG System 169
D. Riester Criteria for Certified Individual Pension Plans 171
E. Investment Vehicles for Occupational Pension Plans in Germany 173
F. Notes on Life Expectancy, Survival Rates and Rates of Return 175
G. Notes on Expected Payments Flows and Expected Rates of Re-
turn 178
H. Estimated Disability and Old Age Retirement Probabilities 181
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| indexdate | 2024-07-09T21:36:07Z |
| institution | BVB |
| isbn | 9783631588512 |
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| spelling | Wilke, Christina Benita 1977- Verfasser (DE-588)129333964 aut German pension reform on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system Christina Benita Wilke Frankfurt am Main [u.a.] Lang 2009 XIII, 196 Seiten graph. Darst. txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Sozialökonomische Schriften 34 Zugl.: Mannheim, Univ., Diss., 2008 Deutschland stw Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung stw Kapitaldeckungsverfahren stw Nachhaltigkeit stw Rendite stw Rentenfinanzierung stw Rentenreform stw Umlageverfahren stw Wirkungsanalyse stw notional defined contributions stw Soziale Sicherheit Defined contribution pension plans Germany Social security Germany Rentenreform (DE-588)4049506-1 gnd rswk-swf Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd rswk-swf Deutschland - Rentenreform - Bevölkerungsentwicklung Deutschland Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Deutschland (DE-588)4011882-4 g Rentenreform (DE-588)4049506-1 s Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 s DE-604 Erscheint auch als Online-Ausgabe https://doi.org/10.3726/b13605 978-3-631-75049-0 Sozialökonomische Schriften 34 (DE-604)BV002522239 34 https://doi.org/10.3726/b13605 Verlag kostenfrei Volltext HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017395082&sequence=000004&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Wilke, Christina Benita 1977- German pension reform on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system Sozialökonomische Schriften Deutschland stw Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung stw Kapitaldeckungsverfahren stw Nachhaltigkeit stw Rendite stw Rentenfinanzierung stw Rentenreform stw Umlageverfahren stw Wirkungsanalyse stw notional defined contributions stw Soziale Sicherheit Defined contribution pension plans Germany Social security Germany Rentenreform (DE-588)4049506-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4049506-1 (DE-588)4006292-2 (DE-588)4011882-4 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | German pension reform on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system |
| title_auth | German pension reform on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system |
| title_exact_search | German pension reform on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system |
| title_full | German pension reform on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system Christina Benita Wilke |
| title_fullStr | German pension reform on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system Christina Benita Wilke |
| title_full_unstemmed | German pension reform on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system Christina Benita Wilke |
| title_short | German pension reform |
| title_sort | german pension reform on road towards a sustainable multi pillar system |
| title_sub | on road towards a sustainable multi-pillar system |
| topic | Deutschland stw Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung stw Kapitaldeckungsverfahren stw Nachhaltigkeit stw Rendite stw Rentenfinanzierung stw Rentenreform stw Umlageverfahren stw Wirkungsanalyse stw notional defined contributions stw Soziale Sicherheit Defined contribution pension plans Germany Social security Germany Rentenreform (DE-588)4049506-1 gnd Bevölkerungsentwicklung (DE-588)4006292-2 gnd |
| topic_facet | Deutschland Gesetzliche Rentenversicherung Kapitaldeckungsverfahren Nachhaltigkeit Rendite Rentenfinanzierung Rentenreform Umlageverfahren Wirkungsanalyse notional defined contributions Soziale Sicherheit Defined contribution pension plans Germany Social security Germany Bevölkerungsentwicklung Deutschland - Rentenreform - Bevölkerungsentwicklung Hochschulschrift |
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| volume_link | (DE-604)BV002522239 |
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