The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions: analysis and experimental investigations
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| Format: | Thesis Book |
| Language: | English |
| Published: |
2008
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| Subjects: | |
| Online Access: | Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| Physical Description: | VIII, 199 Bl. Ill., graph. Darst. 30 cm |
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| 245 | 1 | 0 | |a The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions |b analysis and experimental investigations |c von: Tobias Uske |
| 264 | 1 | |c 2008 | |
| 300 | |a VIII, 199 Bl. |b Ill., graph. Darst. |c 30 cm | ||
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| adam_text | Titel: The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions
Autor: Uske, Tobias
Jahr: 2008
Contents
1 Introduction 1
1.1 An uncertain world............................ 3
1.1.1 Uncertainty and the strategic aspect .............. 3
1.1.2 Uncertainty in principal-agent settings............. 6
1.2 Experimental methodology........................ 11
1.3 Overview of chapters........................... 15
2 On the Absorbability of the Guessing Game Theory 19
2.1 Introduction................................ 20
2.2 (Iterated) dominated strategy elimination in guessing games..... 24
2.3 The experimental design......................... 26
2.4 Experiment results............................ 28
2.4.1 General effects of theory absorption............... 28
2.4.2 Equilibrium behavior....................... 30
2.5 Conclusions................................ 36
3 Buying a pig in a poke 39
3.1 Introduction................................ 40
3.2 Experimental procedures......................... 41
3.3 Proposer behavior ............................ 44
Contents
3.4 Responder behavior............................ 47
3.5 Willingness to pay and to accept .................... 51
3.6 Conclusions................................ 55
4 On the Incentive Effects of Uncertainty in Monitoring Agents 57
4.1 Introduction................................ 58
4.2 The tournament.............................. 61
4.3 Experimental protocol.......................... 66
4.4 Results................................... 68
4.4.1 Sensitivity to equilibrium..................... 68
4.4.2 Low piece-rate payment ..................... 69
4.4.3 High piece-rate payment..................... 71
4.5 Single agent................................ 74
4.6 Discussion................................. 78
5 Tournament Fever and the Perception of Strategic Uncertainty 80
5.1 Introduction................................ 81
5.2 The model................................. 83
5.3 Previous findings and implications.................... 86
5.4 Why are agents overshooting?...................... 88
5.4.1 Auction fever in our tournament setting ........... 88
5.4.2 Sources of equilibrium deviations................ 92
5.5 Experimental design ........................... 93
5.6 Results................................... 95
5.6.1 Differences between human and computerized opponents ... 95
5.6.2 Effects observed in the human opponent setting........ 100
5.6.3 Effects observed in the computerized opponent setting .... 106
5.7 Conclusion................................. 112
6 Summary 115
n
Contents
Appendix 120
A Instructions of chapter 2 120
B Instructions of chapter 3 136
B.I Instructions of first experiment series..................137
B.2 Instructions of second experiment series.................142
C Instructions of chapter 4 148
C.I Instructions for the high uncertainty setting (n = 1)..........149
C.2 Instructions for the low uncertainty setting (n = 3)..........153
C.3 Instructions for the single agent setting and n = 1...........156
C.4 Instructions for the single agent setting and n — 3...........160
D Instructions of chapter 5 164
D.I Instructions for the Hi-treatment and n — ..............165
D.2 Instructions for the Hi-treatment and n — 3..............171
D.3 Instructions for the Cl-treatment and n = 1 ..............175
D.4 Instructions for the Cl-treatment and ra = 3..............181
Bibliography 186
in
List of Figures
2.1 Frequency of equilibrium hits ......................33
3.1 First experiment series: distribution of actual proposals........ 44
3.2 First experiment series: proposers expected and actual payoffs in UG 46
3.3 First experiment series: responders observed acceptance rates .... 48
3.4 First experiment series: responders first order beliefs in UG and Y/N 49
3.5 Second experiment series: observed acceptance rates.......... 50
3.6 Second experiment series: willingness to pay/to ask in Y/N and UG . 51
3.7 Second experiment series: distribution of wtp and wta......... 52
5.1 Choice deviations from best responses and precision of beliefs in the
HI- and Cl-treatments..........................97
5.2 Hi-treatment: Effort choices and equilibria...............102
5.3 Hi-treatment: Effort choices compared to best responses and beliefs
compared to expectations ........................105
5.4 Cl-treatment: Effort choices and equilibria...............108
5.5 Cl-treatment: Effort choices compared to best responses and beliefs
compared to expectations ........................Ill
D.I Hi-treatment: payoff from expectations in n = 1............169
D.2 Hi-treatment: payoff from expectations in n = 3............174
IV
List of Figures
D.3 Cl-treatment: payoff from expectations in n = 1............179
D.4 Cl-treatment: payoff from expectations in n = 3............184
List of Tables
2.1 Nine parameterizations of the guessing game.............. 26
2.2 First period quantile results of subjects in UU, UI, and II....... 29
2.3 Equilibrium choice behavior....................... 31
2.4 All periods quantile results of subjects in UU, UI, and II....... 35
3.1 First experiment series: average, median and standard deviation of
actual proposals.............................. 44
3.2 Second experiment series: numbers of responders in accordance with
each type ................................. 53
4.1 Equilibrium choices and unit variable costs for all tournament settings 66
4.2 Parameter setting for n = 1 and n = 3 production events....... 67
4.3 Descriptive statistics for Tournament e — 0.1.............. 70
4.4 Descriptive statistics for Tournament e = 10.............. 73
4.5 Parameter setting for each sample size in single agent ........ 76
4.6 Descriptive statistics for the single agent case ............. 77
5.1 Equilibrium effort choices ........................ 85
5.2 Previous experimental mean effort choices and 95% confidence interval 87
5.3 Decomposition of the choice deviations from equilibrium....... 92
5.4 Parameter setting for the HI- and Cl-treatments............ 94
VI
List of Tables
5.5 Significant differences between the HI- and Cl-treatments....... 96
5.6 Hi-treatment: Overview of results.................... 101
5.7 Hi-treatment: ANOVA results for choice deviations from equilibria
and best responses, and for precision of beliefs............. 103
5.8 Cl-treatment: Overview of results ................... 107
5.9 Cl-treatment: ANOVA results for choice deviations from equilibria
and best responses, and precision of beliefs............... 109
C.I Possible combinations of the bonus program with 1 = high and 0 =
low production outcome ........................150
C.2 Probability to win the bonus, if your colleague chooses pk and you
choose p..................................151
C.3 Possible combinations of the bonus program with 1 = high and 0 =
low production outcome ........................154
C.4 Probability to win the bonus, if your colleague chooses pk and you
choose p..................................155
C.5 Possible combinations of the bonus program and corresponding prob-
abilities ..................................157
C.6 Probability to win the bonus if you choose p..............158
C.7 Possible combinations of the bonus program and corresponding prob-
abilities ..................................161
C.8 Probability to win the bonus if you choose p..............162
D.I Possible combinations of the bonus program with 1 = high and 0 =
low production outcome........................167
D.2 Probability to win the bonus, if your colleague chooses pk and you
choose p..................................168
D.3 Possible combinations of the bonus program with 1 = high and 0 =
low production outcome ........................172
vu
List of Tables
D.4 Probability to win the bonus, if your colleague chooses pk and you
choose p..................................173
D.5 Possible combinations of the bonus program with 1 = high and 0 =
low production outcome........................177
D.6 Probability to win the bonus, if your computerized colleague uses pk
and you choose p.............................178
D.7 Possible combinations of the bonus program with 1 = high and 0 =
low production outcome ........................182
D.8 Probability to win the bonus, if your colleague chooses pk and you
choose p..................................183
viu
|
| any_adam_object | 1 |
| author | Uske, Tobias 1979- |
| author_GND | (DE-588)128932333 |
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| discipline | Wirtschaftswissenschaften |
| format | Thesis Book |
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| spelling | Uske, Tobias 1979- Verfasser (DE-588)128932333 aut The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions analysis and experimental investigations von: Tobias Uske 2008 VIII, 199 Bl. Ill., graph. Darst. 30 cm txt rdacontent n rdamedia nc rdacarrier Jena, Univ., Diss., 2008 Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd rswk-swf Führungsentscheidung (DE-588)4390843-3 gnd rswk-swf Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd rswk-swf (DE-588)4113937-9 Hochschulschrift gnd-content Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 s Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 s Führungsentscheidung (DE-588)4390843-3 s DE-604 HBZ Datenaustausch application/pdf http://bvbr.bib-bvb.de:8991/F?func=service&doc_library=BVB01&local_base=BVB01&doc_number=017359255&sequence=000002&line_number=0001&func_code=DB_RECORDS&service_type=MEDIA Inhaltsverzeichnis |
| spellingShingle | Uske, Tobias 1979- The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions analysis and experimental investigations Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Führungsentscheidung (DE-588)4390843-3 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| subject_GND | (DE-588)4070864-0 (DE-588)4390843-3 (DE-588)4138606-1 (DE-588)4113937-9 |
| title | The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions analysis and experimental investigations |
| title_auth | The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions analysis and experimental investigations |
| title_exact_search | The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions analysis and experimental investigations |
| title_full | The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions analysis and experimental investigations von: Tobias Uske |
| title_fullStr | The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions analysis and experimental investigations von: Tobias Uske |
| title_full_unstemmed | The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions analysis and experimental investigations von: Tobias Uske |
| title_short | The perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions |
| title_sort | the perception of uncertainty and its impact on strategic interactions analysis and experimental investigations |
| title_sub | analysis and experimental investigations |
| topic | Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit (DE-588)4070864-0 gnd Führungsentscheidung (DE-588)4390843-3 gnd Entscheidungstheorie (DE-588)4138606-1 gnd |
| topic_facet | Entscheidung bei Unsicherheit Führungsentscheidung Entscheidungstheorie Hochschulschrift |
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